If you were a smart guy like MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor and you thought a stagflationary tsunami of enormous proportion was going to wash over the US economy regardless of who wins in November, what would you be doing right now?
I think you might be doing whatever you can to get liquid in the global reserve currency without spooking the marks.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.
Inflation
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed Narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
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Crypto
Recent Notes
AI R Us
The scariest thing about large language model AIs isn’t their fundamental human-ness.
It’s the fundamental AI-ness of human intelligence.
Noseblind
The half-life of just about every major news story is one week.
Barring major new developments, practically nothing captures our attention beyond six.
So how do we stay focused on things that matter for much longer than that?
They Fought the Gyre … and the Gyre Won
He Gets Us gets a lot right about our world today.
But there’s something important He Gets Us didn’t get.
Metaphysics, Consciousness, Nature of Reality: a Thread from the ET Forum
The craziest thing happens when there’s no audience, when you’re talking with other actual human beings for the right reasons … you not only have actual conversations, you not only move quickly past politics into subjects that are far more interesting and far more relevant to our actual lives than politics, but you make actual friends
“Yay, College!” Part 1: The Smiley-Face Super-Villainy of American Higher Education
The modern American system of higher education – especially its most prominent public and private universities – is less our Superman than our Homelander, a smiley-faced faux superhero who does The Man’s dirty work in exchange for wealth, privilege and … our cheers.
Hodor
The Story of Adequate Liquidity doesn’t exist and shift on the margin. Instead, it exists in two states: it is normal, or it is broken. Once the threshold between these states is crossed, it is very hard to tell the old story. Sometimes impossible.
There is almost no price too high to keep that story from jumping over that threshold.
Epsilon Theory 2022 in Review – Foundation
2022 was our ninth year of publishing Epsilon Theory. It was also our best.
We’re changing the way the world sees the invisible water in which we swim – narratives.
And we’re just getting started.
Covid is China’s Vietnam War
Covid is China’s Vietnam War, and the current outbreak is their Tet Offensive.
This is how common knowledge changes, as now everyone knows that everyone knows that the CCP is not just a liar, but an incompetent, failed liar.
The Recipe for Agent Orange – The Projection Racket, Pt. 3
There is a true story of free market capitalism. It is one of humanity’s greatest and most important stories.
There is also a myth of free market capitalism. It is one of humanity’s most manipulated stories.
The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX
The MacGuffin is the object of desire.
It is the thing around which the plot of the story revolves.
Here is the story arc of SBF and FTX, and the MacGuffin that anchored it all – the Magical Money Machine.
Stock Buybacks!™ and the Monetization of Stock-Based Compensation
I love stock buybacks, but I despise Stock Buybacks!™ – the issuance of new shares to management with one hand and the buying back of those shares with the other.
Over the past decade, Stock Buybacks!™ have transferred more than a trillion dollars from shareholders to managers. Not founders, not entrepreneurs, not risk-takers … managers.
Cursed Knowledge #15: Sir Edmund Hillary Thinks You’re An Ass
Mt Everest is a death trap. Everything about the mountain is designed to kill you. So why are so many people going up there? Why do we ignore the very real and very dangerous narratives that are right in our face.
UK Pensions Webinar Recording
This is the recording of our webinar on UK Pensions that took place on October 14th, 2022. If you want to continue the conversation, check out the ET Forum.
A Brief History of the Past 10,000 Years of Monetary Policy
What we saw happen in the UK last week is the first shock, not the last, and all the massive pension funds and asset owners who have turned themselves into shadow hedge funds, full of swaps and leverage through the sweet whispers of Wall Street Wormtongue, will be our undoing.
Cursed Knowledge #14: In Defense of Marie Antoinette
Marie Antoinette has a rather interesting historical footprint. For all that her image is iconic and her reputation infamous, it’s not all the truth. The real Marie Antoinette has been lost to the Cartoon of Marie Antoinette™. So I want to show you a glimpse at the real person behind the cartoon and take a closer look at how her cartoon got started.
Monetary Policy is Non-Linear
The relationship between interest rates and inflation is non-linear and non-monotonic, and in exactly the same way that the Fed was unable to spur inflation by cutting rates to exceptionally low levels, so will they be unable to contain inflation by hiking rates off these exceptionally low levels.
The Fed first has to get interest rates to this monotonic tipping point before further interest rate hikes will have any appreciable effect in the real economy.
Cursed Knowledge #13: Subverting Censorship
The Golden Age of Hollywood was full of drama. On and off screen. It was the age of carefully cultivated images. Fake names and secret procedures. And it was the age of censorship. The Hays Code and the censorship office had more influence on the film industry than any actor, director, or producer ever could. They had full control over what Hollywood made. Well, almost. There were still a few loopholes left to exploit.
The Widening Gyre
The widening gyre is eating America alive. It is the instrument of the Beast, a three-headed hydra of Big Politics, Big Media and Big Tech.
A third political party can be our weapon to slay the Beast, but not in the way you think.
Why the Yankees Sucked in August
“The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.”
That was Edward Gibbon in 1774. This is ET contributor Brent Donnelly saying the same thing but in a much more entertaining way in 2022.
Government Sponsorship and the Student Loan Crisis
US student debt is no longer ordinary debt, but has morphed into a bizarre government tax-and-spend model.