Rusty Guinn 
Common knowledge effects, credentialing and missionaries are everywhere. You may differ in your view of their importance, but if your framework doesn’t acknowledge their role in price-setting, you’re not seeing the full picture.
No matter how much you try to make mama tell you what part of the snake you’re eating, and no matter how much the answer might comfort you, it’s important to know that neither you nor she is telling the truth.
We are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Professional, or ET Pro. It is a service designed to leverage our narrative research more directly for investors and asset owners. Learn more about the types of content and research we’re doing here.
We will be live at 2PM on Tuesday, December 11, 2018. Click here to get more information about ET Live, how to subscribe and how to get your questions in for the day.
Just because something is true doesn’t mean that it can’t also be transformed into a meme. That is, in fact, the usual outcome when an idea encounters resistance. But this isn’t a path to truth.
If you want to learn how you will be nudged in the future, look to the same places: Vegas and Video Games.
In our November 2018 update to the Fiat News Index, we review some topics that media outlets are even happier than usual to tell us how to think about.
The way I see it, there are three reasons a person becomes a liar: he believes that he must, he believes that he may, or he believes it serves a Greater Truth.
The emphasis of asset owners on private assets investments is meta-stable – robust to a lot of potential changes in market environment. The reason? The deals! meme.
To our readers, to our supporters, to our engaged commenters, and to the people who have compared Epsilon Theory to drinking paint, a word: thanks.
I don’t know what the Fed should do in December. But I do know how financial media (and Donald Trump) want you to think about what they should do in December.
When something becomes as necessary, accepted and right-sounding as ‘process’, it can be tough to tell the difference between the cartoon and the genuine article.
Our brains’ responses to memes are mostly existential – fight or flight. We can’t turn off these responses. But we can train our behavior to question them.
I don’t know that any investor’s mean expectation for Amazon ought to have moved an inch. But should a poorly played metagame change investors’ probabilistic outlook? I think so.
Common criticisms of the news media tend to focus on bias. But when it comes to learning to resist the unavoidable influence of narrative and meme on our brains, our focus should be on how much we allow others to explain things to us. We’re working on tools to allow citizens to do exactly that.
A good model isn’t just right. A good model has to be relevant. And in a world of abstraction and narrative, engaging in relevant ways demands much more of us.
We are wired to associate outcomes with the biggest single visible variance. This is a process-breaking flaw for general managers and portfolio managers alike.
A round-up of the most representative stories about the midterm elections between 9/30/2018 and 11/5/2018.
Humility is in short supply on Wall Street. But the humility! meme is not. Developing a process to understand the difference is important for any asset allocator.
Ben and I are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Live – our audio/visual supplement to the existing written Epsilon Theory content! Epsilon Theory Live will provide ET Premium subscribers with access to podcasts, monthly livestreams and Q&A sessions, plus other special audio and visual segments you won’t want to miss. The first …