All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory including our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. Plus, short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes.

Oh No, Here It Comes Again, That Funny Feeling

By Ben Hunt | October 27, 2020 | 36 Comments

Three weeks ago, I didn’t see a narrative path for Trump to win a turnout-based election hinging on four or five swing states.

Today I do.

It’s the same funny feeling I got in 2016, but with a twist.

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We are all MMTers (Still)

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2020 | 8 Comments

Stimulus is dominating market news, and even with an election coming up is playing an outsized role in political news. So what is the current fiscal stimulus really about?

Maybe more importantly, what is it absolutely, definitely NOT about?

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How It Started. How It’s Going.

By Ben Hunt | October 20, 2020 | 9 Comments

Once Daryl Morey’s new idea became the common knowledge of the NBA – once everyone knows that everyone knows that the way to win NBA games is to maximize 3-point shots and lay-ups – then it became a permanent feature of the way professional basketball is played. It became an equilibrium.

It’s exactly the same with politics.

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Knowledge Takes the Sword Away

By Rusty Guinn | October 16, 2020 | 34 Comments

The corruption of media by missionaries means that we now live in a world of two sets of facts. It is a world which gives us two choices: to champion our truth, or to work toward eliminating the world-of-two facts structure.

To hell with OR. Let’s choose both.

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“Quantile Tracking Errors (QuTE)” by Aguilar, Chengan, and Custovic

By Academic Research Author | October 16, 2020 | 0 Comments

Aguilar, Chengan and Custovic dig into the concept of “tracking error” and find that current measures do a poor job of handling skewness and kurtosis. They propose a new approach to calculating tracking error – Quantile Tracking Errors (QuTE) – to address this weakness in traditional measures.

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Meta Information

By Ben Hunt | October 15, 2020 | 8 Comments

Sometimes a grift isn’t in what you say, but in the difference in what you say to different audiences.

It’s not the information. It’s the meta information.

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ET Live! – 10.13.2020

By Rusty Guinn | October 13, 2020 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 10.13.2020

It’s the October 13th Epsilon Theory Live!, where Ben and Rusty discuss all things narrative in an interactive format.

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The Frustrated Money Manager

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2020 | 12 Comments

The frustrated money manager is almost always a smart, accomplished professional in his own field who believes VERY much in the existence of The Smart Money ™.

The frustrated money manager is almost always a liiiittttle bit on the make.

Like a Vatican cardinal.

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Fell on Black Days

By Ben Hunt | October 5, 2020 | 26 Comments

2020 has awakened us to the Black Days constructed while we slept.

Now we act, and not just to avoid the worst excesses of the Trumpist clownshow or the Socialist lunacies.

Now we change the entire freakin’ world.

For ourselves, yes. For our children, even more.

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Scapegoating the Zeitgeist

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2020 | 5 Comments

One day we will recognize the defining Zeitgeist of the post-GFC Obama/Trump years for what it is: an unparalleled transfer of wealth to the managerial class.

This Wall Street Journal article is not an attack on that system. It is a defense. It is telling you that the system is fine … we just need to do something about these bad apple CEOs.

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Hook, Line and Sinker

By Rusty Guinn | October 1, 2020 | 9 Comments

It is a literal golden age for CEOs whose talent is the creation and propagation of narratives.

Why? Because it works. And it works because we have accepted a financial and business media that has been redesigned into a cheering section.

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TLDR: The Projection Racket (Part 2)

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2020 | 0 Comments

This is a short-form summary of our long-form note The Projection Racket (Part 2), located here. While it attempts to present the most accurate picture of the arguments made, we always think that the long-form note provides the most helpful context. In any representative democracy (RD), your vote is never your full expression of political …

Read moreTLDR: The Projection Racket (Part 2)

The Projection Racket, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2020 | 22 Comments

The Projection Rackets will say that the solution to two-party dominance and the erosion of political self-determination is, like everything else, is to vote. Express yourself! Don’t you believe in democracy?

They are wrong. We, the people, CAN fix this. And if we want it enough, we will.

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Why Am I Reading This Now?

By Ben Hunt | September 25, 2020 | 8 Comments

Yesterday, 5 GOP Senators wrote a letter to Netflix, saying that their plan to adapt Liu Cixin’s “The Three Body Problem” for TV/film amounted to “complicity” with the CCP and their horrific mistreatment of the Uyghurs.

Why am I reading this NOW?

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Brave New World

By Peter Cecchini | September 23, 2020 | 2 Comments

It may be a brave new world of Davey Day Trader, but it’s not enough to convince yours truly to drink Huxley’s soma. Or the Fed’s SOMA (System Open Market Account).

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The Welding Shut of the American Mind

By Ben Hunt | September 21, 2020 | 31 Comments

The closing of the American mind is evolving into its next stage: the welding shut of the American mind.

What’s the difference between closing and welding shut? A closed door can be opened. A welded shut door cannot. We can’t save the minds already lost. We can only prevent our OWN minds from being welded shut.

And we can. Together.

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The UNITED States of America

By Ben Hunt | September 19, 2020 | 7 Comments

My RBG story …

I thought she’d be all about women’s rights and legal theory this and legal theory that. I was SO wrong.

RBG’s death is an enormous loss for the UNITED States of America.

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Many People Say

By Ben Hunt | September 16, 2020 | 26 Comments

The go-to move by sophists like Vox and Trump is to claim that “many people” are asserting their made-up premise that justifies an otherwise ludicrous position.

Why do they do this? Because it works.

Why does it work? Because common knowledge game. Because of the power of the crowd watching the crowd.

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ET Live! – 9.15.2020

By Rusty Guinn | September 15, 2020 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 9.15.2020

In today’s episode, it’s all about BITFD and the almost hilarious extremes to which the Long Now has infected our financial world. Don’t forget to refresh your browser if your video doesn’t start promptly after 2:00 PM ET.

The Projection Racket, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | September 14, 2020 | 23 Comments

Some of us are uncomfortable with BITFD, and that’s OK. Small-c conservatives should be uncomfortable. Small-l liberals should be uncomfortable.

They should also get on board.

This is a series about why.

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