All Epsilon Theory Content


Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory including our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. Plus, short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes.

For Leon Black is an Honorable Man

By Ben Hunt | January 26, 2021 | 3 Comments

O judgment! thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason. Bear with me;
My heart is in the coffin there with the American dream that once was,
And I must pause till it come back to me.

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Off Wall Street and Off-Off Wall Street

By Brent X. Donnelly | January 22, 2021 | 7 Comments

Rusty and I are thrilled to announce that Brent Donnelly will be joining us as a guest contributor to Epsilon Theory.

Brent writes a daily email focused on FX markets that is my go-to source for understanding that enormous corner of the market, but in truth his writing is applicable to every aspect of investing. You’ll see what I mean when you read this post!

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A Different Game

By Rusty Guinn | January 21, 2021 | 5 Comments

The light research poured into sentiment analysis misses one rather important fact: that’s the game we used to play. Today’s Fiat News is a different game altogether.

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UK-Variant SARS-CoV-2 Update

By Ben Hunt | January 20, 2021 | 12 Comments

The spread of B117 in a Covid-fatigued country like the US is a profoundly deflationary, risk-off, dollar higher, flight to safety event in real-world.

Does it matter to market-world?

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ET Live! – 1.19.2021

By Harper Hunt | January 19, 2021 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 1.19.2021

Check out the January 19 ET Live, where Ben and Rusty talk with you about the latest ET notes.

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ET Podcast #3 – The Ireland Event

By Ben Hunt | January 14, 2021 | 4 Comments

In episode #3 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Rusty and I discuss the spike in Covid cases in Ireland and the risk of seeing a similar “Ireland Event” here in the US.

The time to act is NOW, not with indiscriminate lockdowns, but with strong restrictions on international and domestic air travel to contain the UK-variant virus while we accelerate vaccine delivery.

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The Ireland Event

By Ben Hunt | January 12, 2021 | 25 Comments

I believe there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 30-45 days, where the Covid effective reproductive number (Re not R0) reaches a value between 2.4 and 3.0 in states and regions where a) the more infectious UK-variant (or similar) Covid strain has been introduced, and b) Covid fatigue has led to deterioration in social distancing behaviors.

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Reap the Whirlwind

By Rusty Guinn | January 11, 2021 | 50 Comments

There is a brief window where I think we have the opportunity to commit to building a common national identity together. Seizing this opportunity will mean leaving a lot of anger we will feel is entirely justified at the door.

Not seizing it, I fear, will mean that we all reap the whirlwind.

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Just a Fantasy

By Peter Cecchini | January 8, 2021 | 0 Comments

ET contributor Pete Cecchini isn’t buying the reflation / small-cap rally narrative, even with a mini Blue Wave.

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“Suicide Bomber” vs suicide bomber

By Ben Hunt | December 29, 2020 | 19 Comments

On Christmas Day, Nashville was attacked by a suicide bomber terrorist. But not by a “Suicide Bomber”. Not by a “Terrorist”.

Why not? Because his terrorist goals didn’t fit neatly into a useful political narrative like “Antifa!” or “Proud Boys!”

Here’s what this looks like in the Narrative Machine.

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ET Podcast #2 – Personal Finance

By Ben Hunt | December 24, 2020 | 0 Comments

A conversation with Brian Portnoy, author of The Geometry of Wealth, about the role of money in shaping a life of meaning. How do we give better advice about money to others … and to ourselves?

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Whatever It Takes

By William | December 18, 2020 | 2 Comments

As Monty Python would say … and now for something completely different.

It’s JPow fanfic day here at Epsilon Theory! Or “every day” as they refer to it on Wall Street.

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ET Live! – 12.15.2020

By Harper Hunt | December 14, 2020 | 2 Comments

In which Ben and Rusty discuss the Long Now, hedonic treadmills and swap SPAC stories.

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The ZIRP Paradox

By Rusty Guinn | December 14, 2020 | 27 Comments

It may seem ironic that a narrative about the long-term could be deployed to distort the rewards of effective, market-based long-term capital allocation for short-term benefit.

This is, I think, the heart of The ZIRP Paradox:

The myth of infinite horizon investing is the enemy of long-term investing.

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An Old Joke

By Rusty Guinn | December 9, 2020 | 23 Comments

So an agent for a new over-the-top variety act finally gets a meeting with the biggest producer in the world. I mean, maybe ‘the world’ is selling it short. Word on the street is this guy’s even got God’s ear, if you can believe it.

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ET Podcast #1 – Is That All There Is?

By Ben Hunt | December 8, 2020 | 3 Comments

In this kick-off Epsilon Theory webcast, I’m joined by renowned cryptocurrency miner and trader @notsofast for a wide-ranging conversation on Bitcoin and crypto. Here’s the core topic:

Can Bitcoin preserve its revolutionary potential after a Wall Street bear hug?

I’m highly skeptical, but @notsofast has some ideas on how to make this work.

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The Merger Is Complete

By Peter Cecchini | December 8, 2020 | 3 Comments

The merger between the Treasury and Fed is now complete with Janet Yellen’s apparent appointment as the Secretary of the Treasury. Let the self-fulfilling market narratives begin!

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Russian Nesting Deals

By Rusty Guinn | December 3, 2020 | 4 Comments

Sometimes complicated is complicated because it has to be. But this nesting doll of a SPAC deal with Dyal (Neuberger Berman) IS weird and worthy of more than usual scrutiny, especially if you are an LP in one of these funds.

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The Ghosts of Commentary Future

By Rusty Guinn | November 30, 2020 | 3 Comments

These are The Ghosts of Wall Street Commentary Future. And if their chains are not already clanking around in your inbox, they will be very, very soon.

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Ten Times Faster Than The Sun’s Beams

By Ben Hunt | November 25, 2020 | 10 Comments

The Wall Street narrative machine is in overdrive to create a “Yay, Value!” rally here at year-end.

Like any effective advertising campaign, it will work. I’m not saying this rally isn’t real.

I’m saying that you should reconsider what “real” means.

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