All Epsilon Theory Content

The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.

Our Finest Hour

By Ben Hunt | April 2, 2020 | 9 Comments

There is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States. And I know you won’t believe me, but I tell you it is true:

This will be #OurFinestHour.

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Until Further Notice

By Rusty Guinn | March 31, 2020 | 8 Comments

We have been asked to discuss our views about the CARES Act. In order to facilitate future such requests, we have provided what we hope to be a helpful rubric.

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The Miracle Max of MBS

By Rusty Guinn | March 30, 2020 | 7 Comments

Sometimes investors and corporate executives will beg for a miracle to bring mostly dead assets back to life. That’s OK. But we don’t have to give it to them. And we don’t have to treat their requests as news in themselves.

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Once in a Lifetime

By Ben Hunt | March 29, 2020 | 35 Comments

We are led by high-functioning sociopaths, in our politics and our economy, and nowhere is this more apparent than in our war against COVID-19. It’s not a left/right thing. It’s not a Republican/Democrat thing. It’s a power thing.

Enough. It’s time for the Pack to howl.

Empathy + Minimax Regret is the answer. Because 2 + 2 = 4.

Yes, this is a personal note. That’s what this war is for all of us … personal.

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When the Story Bends

By Rusty Guinn | March 24, 2020 | 9 Comments

Saying that “America needs to reopen for business” isn’t the same thing as doing what we need to reopen America for business. Words matter, but actions matter more.

Let’s do the right things. Now.

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Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders

By Ben Hunt | March 23, 2020 | 3 Comments

This is our personal effort to help identify *need*, *sources*, and *money* for personal protective equipment distributions to healthcare workers and first responders.

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Do The Right Thing

By Ben Hunt | March 19, 2020 | 28 Comments

I’m angry that I have to write this note about the airline industry and how to structure the bail-out of United, Delta, American and Southwest. But I must, because the raccoons and the high-functioning sociopaths are looking to get their private losses socialized and their private gains locked in.

Bailout the airlines and their rank-and-file employees? You bet.

Bailout the CEOs and Warren Buffett? Not a chance.

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The Non-Linearity of Need, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | March 19, 2020 | 14 Comments

Let’s make this Our Finest Hour. From the bottom up.

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Our Escape Story

By Rusty Guinn | March 18, 2020 | 10 Comments

When people stop asking “How much worse is this going to get” and start asking “How much longer is this going to last”, things really start changing.

But we can change that, too.

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Margin Call

By Rusty Guinn | March 16, 2020 | 7 Comments

Levering up a portfolio based on a model that we know cannot act as a representation of the state of the world is perilous.

Doing the same with a country is far, far worse.

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Lack of Imagination

By Rusty Guinn | March 14, 2020 | 27 Comments

The structurally bullish will warn us against failure of nerve. The traders will warn us against hesitation. The structurally bearish will warn us about being unable to shift into a defensive shape. But what we should be worried about now is a lack of imagination.

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The Python and the Pig

By Ben Hunt | March 13, 2020 | 2 Comments

The NYC healthcare system – one of the finest in the world – is about to be slammed beyond anything they have ever seen. ER visits and patient testing is where it begins. It moves from there through the system, ending in ICU wards. The process is like a python swallowing a pig, except this isn’t a pig. It’s a whale.

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Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | March 12, 2020 | 15 Comments

For the first time our federal government is treating the fight against this virus like the war that it is.

Is it pathetic and sad and a corrupt betrayal of the public trust that it took this long? Absolutely.

But now here we go. And there is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States.

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ET Live! – 3.10.2020

By Rusty Guinn | March 9, 2020 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 3.10.2020

Covid-19 is a fertile ground for narratives and missionaries of all kinds – from politicians to central banks, corporate leaders and financial media pundits. Join us as we discuss them.

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The Non-Linearity of Need

By Rusty Guinn | March 9, 2020 | 12 Comments

In a potential recession, need isn’t evenly distributed. In a pandemic, that’s even more true. The time to start helping is now.

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Don’t Test, Don’t Tell (10 Days Later)

By Ben Hunt | March 8, 2020 | 10 Comments

Originally published in Quillette, it’s the Epsilon Theory take on Don’t Test, Don’t Tell” – the single most incompetent, corrupt public health policy of my lifetime.

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The Elton/Hootie Line

By Rusty Guinn | March 4, 2020 | 33 Comments

In 1995 we crossed a line in music.

In 2009 we crossed that line in markets.

In 2016 we crossed that line in politics.

Music charted the way back. Let’s listen to its lesson.

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The Mozilo Market

By Ben Hunt | February 28, 2020 | 12 Comments

After a Countrywide earnings call in 2008, I trusted NO ONE in government or Wall Street to tell the truth about the mortgage crisis.

And that’s the way I feel about COVID-19 today.

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Don’t Test, Don’t Tell

By Ben Hunt | February 27, 2020 | 25 Comments

The CDC’s Don’t Test, Don’t Tell policy came crashing down last night. So did Trump’s “buh, buh the flu” and “Yay, Containment!” narratives.

Now let’s get to work preparing for the fight to come.

Not in panic. Not in fear. But with resolve, sacrifice and righteous anger for those who would use us instrumentally for their own political ends.

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

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Join Us. No, Really.

By Rusty Guinn | February 25, 2020 | Comments Off on Join Us. No, Really.

Second Foundation Partners is looking for a new member of the team to help us spearhead the development of technologies for narrative analysis.

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