All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.
The death of risk happened with a whimper, not a bang. Not because the market blew up, but because of an icy truth: safe havens ain’t safe.
If you don’t trust the meaning of risk-free, you can’t trust the meaning of risk, and we have built everything on the meaning of risk.
In this captivating episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Kris Abdelmessih, the mind behind Moontower. From his immigrant family upbringing in New Jersey to becoming a seasoned market maker who covered virtually every trading pit imaginable, Kris shares his fascinating journey through the financial world. Learn how key mentors, family influences, and pivotal life moments shaped his path from trading floors to becoming a respected financial writer.
It’s not the tariffs. It’s not the recession. These are just the catalysts through which the true enemy shows himself.
The true enemy is the over-financialization of the US Treasury market, and its catalyst is the diminishment of the full faith and credit of the United States.
Brent Donnelly surveyed almost 2,000 active traders about work and life. The results are fascinating and Brent’s advice is wonderful!
Who’s to blame when a chosen son is drafted 144th overall?
The spectacle of Shedeur’s fall teaches us lessons on behavior – both public and behind closed doors – in a world where everything leaks.
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Brent Kochuba, founder of financial research firm SpotGamma. Brent shares his remarkable journey from network administrator to options trading expert, including his experiences at major financial institutions, surviving market crashes, and ultimately building his own successful derivatives research business. With humor and candor, Brent reveals the unexpected paths that led him to where he is today, including family influences, career pivots, and seizing opportunities during uncertain times.
We are in the early stages of a bank run on the United States and the US dollar, and everyone on Wall Street is heading for the exits, including domestic investors who will exit not because they want to but because they know the Not-So-Golden Rule.
When you’re defending the indefensible, you have to create a symbol powerful enough to keep the masses in line.
“I voted for this” is one of the few capable of sustaining support for policy this extreme.
Join Matt Zeigler on The Intentional Investor podcast as he interviews Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the new book “Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love, and Work.” In this engaging conversation, Daryl shares her journey from MIT to the University of Chicago, her experiences navigating corporate America, and how she applies economic principles to everyday life decisions. With her unique background spanning academia, tech, and real estate, Daryl offers fascinating insights on using economic frameworks to understand human behavior and make better decisions.
We live in a world awash with Narrative.
It’s worth celebrating those rare moments where a man gets to thumb his nose at those narratives, point to the sky, and say “Scoreboard.”
Storyboards are an Epsilon Theory exclusive research product where we go beyond sentiment to explore the meaning of the stories being told about markets, events,…
Some want us to believe that the narratives that shape belief are universally promoted from the top down.
That hasn’t been true for a long time.
I am desperately opposed to crashing the Pax Americana car, Annie Hall style, because the America First system that this Administration wants as a replacement is not a stable system that is possible as a replacement.
The Trump administration has flipped between a half dozen distinct narratives telling us what these tariffs are really about.
Why? Because they needed to wrap the truth in a better story. Time to go Narrative Shopping.
I’ve got some ideas on what a model portfolio looks like to manage both the exit from the old regime and the entrance into the new, and I’d like to talk about that in a webinar for Professional subscribers on Friday, April 11th at 11a EST: What Happens When the United States is Just Another Country?
Join host Matt Zeigler as he interviews Danika Waddell, founder of Xena Financial Planning, in this engaging conversation about career pivots, financial independence, and creating a more inclusive financial services industry. Danika shares her journey from accounting to launching her own financial planning firm during the pandemic, and how her personal experiences shaped her mission to help women in tech achieve financial independence.
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, host Matt Zeigler sits down with Cullen Roche, an economist, writer, and financial maverick who has carved out a unique space in the world of finance through his independent thinking and unconventional approach. From his large Irish Catholic family to his journey through finance, Cullen shares an intimate look at how curiosity, non-conformity, and a commitment to understanding complex systems have shaped his professional and personal life.
A threat built on a shred of truth, an existential fear, and our utter inability to stop it is the perfect tool for psychological control at scale.
It is a Goldstein Machine.
In this profound follow-up conversation, Matt Zeigler welcomes back Ben Hunt to explore the evolution of Hunt’s writing and worldview. Beginning with reflections on their childhood relationships with religion and storytelling, the discussion moves into Hunt’s journey with Epsilon Theory – from its market-focused origins to his current philosophical crossroads.
Kevin Muir, author of the Macro Tourist newsletter and a seasoned trader, joins The Intentional Investor for a fascinating conversation that weaves together trading, life lessons, and Canadian culture. From his early days mastering Monopoly statistics to pioneering computer-driven trading strategies at RBC in the 1990s, Kevin shares candid stories about finding his path in finance.
Kevin discusses growing up as the older brother of a professional hockey player, his journey from discount brokerage manager to institutional trading desk, and how becoming a father changed his perspective on risk and career. He offers unique insights into market psychology, friendship, and the importance of finding work you genuinely love.