All Epsilon Theory Content
The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.
We have been experiencing technical difficulties with our network connection that were adversely impacting audio output. In order to be respectful of your time, for this session we will record the video in a non-live format this afternoon and upload it as soon as we are able. We truly apologize for the inconvenience and look …
As Bill Simmons used to say, “yep, these are my readers.” He meant it as a joke after a silly email, and that’s how I’ve used it in the past, too. But no silly or funny emails today. Just clear eyes and full hearts. Because … you know … can’t lose.
Yes, these are OUR readers, and this is OUR Pack, and this is OUR platform for thought and action in service to that Pack.
Watch from a distance if you like. But when you’re ready … join us.
Robert Shiller’s new book, “Narrative Economics”, will be out soon, and the publicity effort is kicking into gear. I am SO HAPPY that the rigorous study of narratives is finally being taken seriously, and grateful to Shiller for making that happen.
I am also SO DEPRESSED about how Shiller’s central metaphor, that narrative = infectious disease, will be used against us. Because the “cure” is the Nudge.
I’m not sure if electric buses are really a national security risk. Even if they are, I’m not sure characterizing them that way is really an escalation of the trade war into existential rhetoric land.
But it’s worth watching.
In an orchard, it isn’t always easy to tell the difference between rust and blight. The same goes for our cultural institutions.
Some should be pruned.
Some should be ripped up root and stem.
It’s not always easy to know which. But if we want our sons and daughters to sit in the shade of our trees, we must learn.
It’s time to start a fire. To burn, yes, but also to illuminate.
My advice? Abandon the political party as your vehicle for political participation.
My alternative? Find your Pack.
My platform? Make – Protect – Teach.
What does it mean when it becomes common knowledge that other investors are focused on evaluating common knowledge?
Is there a bubble in passive investing? Honestly, I’m not even sure what that question is asking.
I DO think there’s a bubble in markets today – a behavioral bubble I’ll call ABB.
Always. Be. Buying.
And the Common Knowledge around passive investing is what blows this bubble. That’s MY secret.
In modern farming and in modern investing, we have become prisoners of the monoculture. It’s efficient. It’s necessary for a mass society of ever-increasing Desire.
But here’s the thing …
In the investment monoculture, you’re not the farmer.
It’s the Monday Zeitgeist, including all known lanthanides and actinides.
In both baseball and in investing, we need an all-purpose test of excellence, not just for identifying MVPs like Mike Trout, but for seeing how all of us mere mortals stack up.
ET contributor David Salem makes the case for an investing corollary to baseball’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It’s a defense of value investing, but with a twist.
There are four non-exclusive Occam’s-razorish explanations for Bill Dudley’s recent article inciting the Fed to get involved in the 2020 election:
A) Bill Dudley is a technocratic fascist.
B) Bill Dudley has lost his mind. In a sad clinical sense.
C) Bill Dudley is a MAGA sleeper agent.
D) Bill Dudley is Leeroy Jenkins.
IT’S A DISASTER. IT’S A CATASTROPHE. IT’S A PERFECT STORM. It’s today’s Zeitgeist.
It’s the August 27th edition of Epsilon Theory Live! In which political, economic and markets nihilism are the order of the day.
Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. On the weekend, however, we run the same analysis on…well, everything else. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting …
I haven’t been very nice to Neel Kashkari.
But he was nice enough to engage in a twitter exchange with me the other day. Well, sort of.
Here’s a record of that exchange. I’ll leave it to you to decide who’s the prisoner and who’s the guard.
Nuke the site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
It’s the best line from a movie full of them.
I couldn’t help but think about nuking inhuman monsters from orbit, when I read the PR releases from Prince Andrew and Les Wexner about their “relationship” with Jeffrey Epstein.
The desire of central banks to forestall recession at all costs reminds us of the war that groundskeeper Carl Spackler had with the gopher in Caddyshack.
Sure, you can defeat the gopher. But you’ve gotta blow up the golf course with dynamite to do it.
Markets are boring. Hey, what if we securitized wokeness?
Honest investing means finding a balance between approaches which imply we know everything and those which imply we can’t know anything. It means humility.
We think there are three – and only three – paths to finding this balance. One is the heart of what we are trying to achieve with Epsilon Theory.