All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

Monetary Policy is Non-Linear

By Ben Hunt | September 22, 2022 | 113 Comments

The relationship between interest rates and inflation is non-linear and non-monotonic, and in exactly the same way that the Fed was unable to spur inflation by cutting rates to exceptionally low levels, so will they be unable to contain inflation by hiking rates off these exceptionally low levels.

The Fed first has to get interest rates to this monotonic tipping point before further interest rate hikes will have any appreciable effect in the real economy.

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Cursed Knowledge #13: Subverting Censorship

By Harper Hunt | September 20, 2022 | 7 Comments

The Golden Age of Hollywood was full of drama. On and off screen. It was the age of carefully cultivated images. Fake names and secret procedures. And it was the age of censorship. The Hays Code and the censorship office had more influence on the film industry than any actor, director, or producer ever could. They had full control over what Hollywood made. Well, almost. There were still a few loopholes left to exploit.

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Office Hours Recap 9/16/2022

By Harper Hunt | September 19, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 09/16/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

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The Widening Gyre

By Ben Hunt | September 19, 2022 | 29 Comments

The widening gyre is eating America alive. It is the instrument of the Beast, a three-headed hydra of Big Politics, Big Media and Big Tech.

A third political party can be our weapon to slay the Beast, but not in the way you think.

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Why the Yankees Sucked in August

By Brent Donnelly | September 15, 2022 | 2 Comments

“The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.”

That was Edward Gibbon in 1774. This is ET contributor Brent Donnelly saying the same thing but in a much more entertaining way in 2022.

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Government Sponsorship and the Student Loan Crisis

By Marc Rubinstein | September 14, 2022 | 0 Comments

US student debt is no longer ordinary debt, but has morphed into a bizarre government tax-and-spend model.

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Office Hours Recap 9/09/2022

By Harper Hunt | September 13, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 09/09/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

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Office Hours Recap 8/26/2022

By Harper Hunt | August 29, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 08/26/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

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Sauron Remains Undefeated

By Ben Hunt | August 25, 2022 | 42 Comments

The US Treasury is the Eye of Sauron — a gigantic panopticon tower that sweeps the world with its unblinking gaze, seeking out the owners of power, i.e. money.

What Treasury did to Tornado Cash and its developers is just the beginning.

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Cursed Knowledge #12: Resurrectionists

By Harper Hunt | August 24, 2022 | 1 Comment

What’s in a name? Quite a bit actually. Names and titles can be all that’s needed to make some one a hero or a villain. So we’re looking at some villains who never got their proper title. People who were able to hide behind social standing and wealth to excuse their crimes.

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Lehman Moments, Tepper Moments, and German Economic Collapse

By Ben Hunt | August 23, 2022 | 0 Comments

Could the German situation get worse? Of course it could. Have we had a “Lehman moment” yet? No, we have not. But I don’t think we are that far away from a Lehman moment in Germany, after which further bets on the system breaking down become much less attractive as existential system risk grows much higher. I don’t think we are that far away from a Tepper moment in Germany, where risk/reward asymmetry becomes infinitely skewed to going long for those who are going to be wiped out if the system fails anyway.

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Office Hours Recap 8/19/2022

By Harper Hunt | August 22, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 08/19/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

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Narrative and Metaverse, Pt. 4 – Carrying the Fire

By Ben Hunt | August 17, 2022 | 16 Comments

This is how we resist the Long Now, how we find an alternative world to the endless present where the Party is always right. By connecting the human past to the human present to the human future. By carrying the fire of our own stories in our own words across the weave of time and space. By building an ark and an arc.

This is my faith.

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Office Hours Recap 8/05/2022

By Harper Hunt | August 8, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 08/05/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

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Before You Fly The Nest: Advice for kids heading to college

By Brent Donnelly | August 5, 2022 | 4 Comments

ET contributor Brent Donnelly went out and asked some people he respects what advice they would give kids heading off to college. Here’s what he found.

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The Most Important Sector in the Universe

By Marc Rubinstein | August 2, 2022 | 2 Comments

The total value of the Chinese residential property sector is approximately $60 trillion – twice the size of the US residential market and bigger than the entire US bond market. Bigger than the entire US stock market, too.

It is … ummm … having a moment.

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Office Hours Recap 7/29/2022

By Harper Hunt | August 1, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 07/29/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

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The Fifteen Faces of Fiat News

By Rusty Guinn | July 26, 2022 | 34 Comments

We’re building a Narrative Early Warning System (NEWS) as our first major research project in a larger effort to inoculate ourselves against the weaponized narratives of Big Tech, Big Media and Big Politics.

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Cursed Knowledge #11: Locks of Love

By Harper Hunt | July 26, 2022 | 3 Comments

Locks of Love is one of the most well known and well regarded charities in America. But things aren’t always what they seem. Sometimes the smokescreen of common knowledge can obscure what’s really going on. So join me in a look behind the curtain at America’s most beloved charity.

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Office Hours Recap 7/22/2022

By Harper Hunt | July 25, 2022 | 0 Comments

These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 07/22/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.

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