By Ben Hunt | April 11, 2022 | 131 Comments

The Fed’s rate hikes to curb inflation?

Not gonna make it.

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Inflation is an ever present force that we find ourselves talking about quite a bit. It may seem simple on the surface, but there's more than meets the eye. Here we've gathered our collection of notes on Inflation to help clarify the many facets that we must face.

Podcasts about Inflation

ET Podcast #7 – Inflation Investing

We’re going to Pack-source a slate of investment strategies for an inflationary world. Here are five tentpoles to organize and support that effort.

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Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

By Ben Hunt | July 9, 2022

Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much faster than our economy.

The bill is due for their hubris, and inflation is here to collect it.

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Inflation and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | December 8, 2021

At whatever point in time you think inflation will start to fade, you are being too optimistic.

Why? Because common knowledge.

Where do we go from here? To a Man With a Plan, I think. And war.

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I’m So Tired of the Transitory Inflation “Debate”

By Ben Hunt | July 1, 2021

When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.

They’re telling you how to think about a fact.

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Wage Inflation Isn’t Coming. It’s Already Here.

By Ben Hunt | May 12, 2021

Over the past four quarters, the United States has generated more wage inflation than at any point over the past 40 years.

This is not an anomaly. This is not a single quarter aberration. A wage-price inflation cycle is here.

I’m not predicting. I’m observing.

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I’m Trying To Understand Hedonic Adjustments

By Brent Donnelly | May 10, 2021

A Honda Accord cost $12,000 in 1990 and it costs $25,000 now.

A Mustang was $9,000 and now it’s $27,000.

The BLS has new car prices close to unchanged over the past 30 years.

ET contributor Brent Donnelly tries to wrap his brain around hedonic adjustments to CPI.

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What Do We Need To Be True?

By Rusty Guinn | April 6, 2021

Modeling common knowledge by analyzing missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.

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The Opposite of 2008

By Ben Hunt | March 2, 2021

In 2008, the US housing market – together with a Fed that thought the subprime crisis was “contained” – delivered the mother of all deflationary shocks to the global economy.

In 2021, the US housing market – together with a Fed that thinks inflationary pressures are “transitory” – risks delivering the mother of all inflationary shocks.

The ET Pack is going to figure this out … together.

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A Song of Ice and Fire

By Ben Hunt | May 27, 2019

We are the human animal.

We are non-linear.

We ARE a song of ice and fire.

It’s a song that has built cathedrals and fed billions and taken us to the moon. It’s a song that can do all of that and more … far, far more … if only we remember the tune.

The Pack remembers.

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Pricing Power (pt. 3) – Government Collaboration

By Ben Hunt | February 24, 2019

What killing active investment management? It’s not some monster hiding behind the rabbit. No, it IS the little white bunny. It’s the Zeitgeist of capital markets transformed into a political utility, innocuous on the surface … but with killer teeth.

How do you defeat the Zeitgeist? You don’t. The smart move, in fact, is to help the killer rabbit.

But there IS another way.

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Pricing Power (pt. 2) – Intellectual Property

By Ben Hunt | February 6, 2019

Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries … the pricing power found in intellectual property. It’s not as easy as it looks.

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Pricing Power (Pt. 1)

By Ben Hunt | January 26, 2019

When an inflation regime shifts, the only question that really matters for your investments and your business model is this: do you have pricing power?

Pt. 1 of a three-fer Brief series … why the worst place to be in any services industry is on the product side.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3)

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They’re major market risks, but you’ll survive.

There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.

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The Icarus Moment

By Ben Hunt | March 21, 2018

We live in a Cartoon Age, an era not of alienation per Karl Marx, but of alienation per Groucho Marx. What’s the cause, what’s the future, and what do we do about all this? It’s a TL;DR cri de coeur in Part 12 of Epsilon Theory’s Notes from the Field series.

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Gradually and Then Suddenly

By Ben Hunt | July 18, 2017

The question isn’t whether the barge of monetary policy has turned around and embarked on a tightening course — it has — the question is how fast that barge is going to move AND whether or not the market pays more attention to the actual barge movements than what the barge captain says.

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