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A Holy Day

By Rusty Guinn | 3 Comments

If Memorial Day is anything, it is a day for telling and re-telling stories about Full Hearts. Let me tell and re-tell you the story of Milton Lee Olive III.

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 05.22.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 06.05.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 05.15.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 05.08.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 05.01.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

By Ben Hunt | 93 Comments

Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much faster than our economy.

The bill is due for their hubris, and inflation is here to collect it.

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Being Human in a LARPing World

By Ben Hunt | 38 Comments

The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.

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In Praise of Bitcoin

By Ben Hunt | 59 Comments

What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.

The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.

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Recent Notes

The United States of Bed Bath & Beyond

By Ben Hunt

A grown man made a wager. He lost. He made another wager. He lost again. End of story.
– Tony Soprano

This is the story of weak men and rapacious men.
This is the story of Bed Bath & Beyond.
This is the story of America today.

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Trading is a lot like Poker

By Brent Donnelly

With the passing of Doyle Brunson, it’s a good day to compare poker to trading.

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An AI in the City of God

By Ben Hunt

The City of Man always wins.

The Visigoths always sack Rome. The Vandals always sack Hippo. Augustine always dies in the siege. Bad things always happen to good people … at scale.

Here’s how we use generative AI to flip the script.

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Dedollarization is Not a Thing

By Brent Donnelly

People like to throw around the phrase “gradually, then suddenly” as a witty rejoinder to suggest a dedollarization of the world is a nonlinear process that will unfold any day now. That only sounds smart when Hemingway says it.

There is no structural dollar depreciation or dedollarization story. Global usage of the USD is stable and changes in the value of the USD are cyclical.

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Dark Forest: The Brutal Game of Modern Banking

By Ben Hunt

I think that the Big Banks’ collective deposit of $30 billion in uninsured accounts with First Republic is the first step in solving the Dark Forest problem of the American banking system.

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AI R Us

By Ben Hunt

The scariest thing about large language model AIs isn’t their fundamental human-ness.

It’s the fundamental AI-ness of human intelligence.

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Noseblind

By Rusty Guinn

The half-life of just about every major news story is one week.

Barring major new developments, practically nothing captures our attention beyond six.

So how do we stay focused on things that matter for much longer than that?

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They Fought the Gyre … and the Gyre Won

By Rusty Guinn

He Gets Us gets a lot right about our world today.

But there’s something important He Gets Us didn’t get.

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Metaphysics, Consciousness, Nature of Reality: a Thread from the ET Forum

By Ben Hunt

The craziest thing happens when there’s no audience, when you’re talking with other actual human beings for the right reasons … you not only have actual conversations, you not only move quickly past politics into subjects that are far more interesting and far more relevant to our actual lives than politics, but you make actual friends

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“Yay, College!” Part 1: The Smiley-Face Super-Villainy of American Higher Education

By Ben Hunt

The modern American system of higher education – especially its most prominent public and private universities – is less our Superman than our Homelander, a smiley-faced faux superhero who does The Man’s dirty work in exchange for wealth, privilege and … our cheers.

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Hodor

By Rusty Guinn

The Story of Adequate Liquidity doesn’t exist and shift on the margin. Instead, it exists in two states: it is normal, or it is broken. Once the threshold between these states is crossed, it is very hard to tell the old story. Sometimes impossible.

There is almost no price too high to keep that story from jumping over that threshold.

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Epsilon Theory 2022 in Review – Foundation

By Ben Hunt

2022 was our ninth year of publishing Epsilon Theory. It was also our best.

We’re changing the way the world sees the invisible water in which we swim – narratives.

And we’re just getting started.

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Covid is China’s Vietnam War

By Ben Hunt

Covid is China’s Vietnam War, and the current outbreak is their Tet Offensive.

This is how common knowledge changes, as now everyone knows that everyone knows that the CCP is not just a liar, but an incompetent, failed liar.

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The Recipe for Agent Orange – The Projection Racket, Pt. 3

By Rusty Guinn

There is a true story of free market capitalism. It is one of humanity’s greatest and most important stories.

There is also a myth of free market capitalism. It is one of humanity’s most manipulated stories.

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The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX

By Ben Hunt

The MacGuffin is the object of desire.

It is the thing around which the plot of the story revolves.

Here is the story arc of SBF and FTX, and the MacGuffin that anchored it all – the Magical Money Machine.

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Stock Buybacks!™ and the Monetization of Stock-Based Compensation

By Ben Hunt

I love stock buybacks, but I despise Stock Buybacks!™ – the issuance of new shares to management with one hand and the buying back of those shares with the other.

Over the past decade, Stock Buybacks!™ have transferred more than a trillion dollars from shareholders to managers. Not founders, not entrepreneurs, not risk-takers … managers.

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Cursed Knowledge #15: Sir Edmund Hillary Thinks You’re An Ass

By Harper Hunt

Mt Everest is a death trap. Everything about the mountain is designed to kill you. So why are so many people going up there? Why do we ignore the very real and very dangerous narratives that are right in our face.

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UK Pensions Webinar Recording

By Ben Hunt

This is the recording of our webinar on UK Pensions that took place on October 14th, 2022. If you want to continue the conversation, check out the ET Forum.

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A Brief History of the Past 10,000 Years of Monetary Policy

By Ben Hunt

What we saw happen in the UK last week is the first shock, not the last, and all the massive pension funds and asset owners who have turned themselves into shadow hedge funds, full of swaps and leverage through the sweet whispers of Wall Street Wormtongue, will be our undoing.

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Cursed Knowledge #14: In Defense of Marie Antoinette

By Harper Hunt

Marie Antoinette has a rather interesting historical footprint. For all that her image is iconic and her reputation infamous, it’s not all the truth. The real Marie Antoinette has been lost to the cartoon of Marie Antoinette™. So I want to show you a glimpse at the real person behind the cartoon and take a closer look at how her cartoon got started.

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 05.22.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 06.05.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.