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The Zeitgeist
Honest investing means finding a balance between approaches which imply we know everything and those which imply we can’t know anything. It means humility.
We think there are three – and only three – paths to finding this balance. One is the heart of what we are trying to achieve with Epsilon Theory.
ET In Full
License to Kill Gophers
The desire of central banks to forestall recession at all costs reminds us of the war that groundskeeper Carl Spackler had with the gopher in Caddyshack.
Sure, you can defeat the gopher. But you’ve gotta blow up the golf course with dynamite to do it.
I’m a Superstitious Man
“I’m a superstitious man, and if some unlucky accident should befall him — if he should get shot in the head by a police officer, or if he should hang himself in his jail cell, or if he’s struck by a bolt of lightning — then I’m going to blame some of the people in this room.” – Vito Corleone
Same.
The Nudging State and the Nudging Oligarchy cannot be defeated on a single point of failure like Jeffrey Epstein’s testimony at trial. Or like the bankruptcy of AIG.
But a million effin’ points of failure? A refusal to vote for ridiculous candidates and buy ridiculous securities? A refusal AT SCALE?
Yeah, that can work.
The Long Now, Pt. 1
The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.
The Long Now is the constant stimulus that Management applies to our economy and the constant fear that Management applies to our politics.
We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
There is another way.
Tick-tock.
The Spanish Prisoner
Mark Zuckerberg is not The Spanish Prisoner. He’s the guy running the con.
Libra, the cryptocoin promoted by Facebook, is a classic Spanish Prisoner con. This is how the State and the Oligarchy co-opt crypto. Not with the heel of a jackboot. But with the glamour of convenience and narrative.
Bitcoin will be permanently diminished in its social importance by the adoption of Libra and other Oligarchy-sponsored and State-embracing crypto currencies. Bitcoin will never again MEAN what it used to mean.
Life in the Gyre
I was mad, and I was going to write an article about what had made me mad.
Except I was wrong. And the truth about what is happening in media should be much more concerning. It is seductive in ways that will make it difficult to resist for anyone who hasn’t decided to pay attention to those who would tell us what the crowd thinks the crowd thinks.
The Half-Happy Horror
The Half-Happy Horror is the realization that pursuit of multiple objectives can end up with a baby split in two.
At best we give lip service to secondary or tertiary goals, all as part of some cartoon we’ve constructed about our “process”.
Yes, optimization is a scourge, and it hits every aspect of modern life. It hits the professional investor hardest of all.
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ET Live!
ET Live! – 7.30.2019
It’s the July 30th, 2019 ET Live! Today, we’re all MMT’ers, or at least that’s the narrative in political space. But what about markets?
ET Live! – 7.9.2019
It’s the July 9th ET Live!, where we dive into all things Libra, Facebook and get an update on market narratives.
ET Live! – 6.18.2019
Join us here at 2PM Eastern today for the latest edition of ET Live. Today’s edition is all about the grotesque charades and cartoons being used to cynically manipulate narratives. Not one to miss.
ET Live! – 6.4.2019
Ben and Rusty update subscribers on the shift from cooperative to competitive games and our narrative research program, with a focus on the China Trade War and US electoral politics.