Introduction to ET Professional

We are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Professional, or ET Pro. It is a service designed to leverage our narrative research more directly for investors and asset owners. Learn more about the types of content and research we’re doing here.

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Featured Notes

We’re Doing It Wrong

By Ben Hunt | December 4, 2018 | 5

The market is not a clockwork machine, even though we all think it is. No, the market is a bonfire.

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Even When I Lie

By Rusty Guinn | November 28, 2018 | 28

The way I see it, there are three reasons a person becomes a liar: he believes that he must, he believes that he may, or he believes it serves a Greater Truth.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Politics

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2018 | 14

Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.

How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.

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From the Archives - Saturday, December 15th

While Dr. Hunt travels through Italy, we'll have our usual briefs, ET Pro updates and notes from Rusty and other contributors. But we'll also be featuring one of Rusty's favorite notes from the ET archives each day. Today's is a lovely note that was early in the Notes from the Field series. It rings just as true today as an observation of the challenge of strategies for navigating difficult environments. Many of these necessary strategies don't do much emotionally for humans who remember how we made them felt.

The Goldfinch in Winter

Part 2 of Ben’s Notes from the Field series, in which he considers the question: what can a bird teach us about value investing? To everything there is a season.

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Most Recent Notes

Common Knowledge or Fortune?

By Rusty Guinn | December 14, 2018 | 5 Comments
Posted:

Common knowledge effects, credentialing and missionaries are everywhere. You may differ in your view of their importance, but if your framework doesn’t acknowledge their role in price-setting, you’re not seeing the full picture.

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In the Trenches: Bridge Out?

By Peter Cecchini | December 13, 2018 | 0 Comments
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ET contributor Pete Cecchini, better known as Cantor Fitzgerald’s Chief Market Strategist, is back with the December installment of his series, In the Trenches. For ET readers who want a less philosophical but no less smart take on markets, Pete’s your guy.

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Basically a Snake Don’t Have Parts

By Rusty Guinn | December 12, 2018 | 0 Comments
Posted:

No matter how much you try to make mama tell you what part of the snake you’re eating, and no matter how much the answer might comfort you, it’s important to know that neither you nor she is telling the truth.

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ET Live – 12.11.2018

By Rusty Guinn | December 11, 2018 | 7 Comments
Posted:

Our December 11 edition of Epsilon Theory Live has concluded, but subscribers can still catch the replay here.

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You Don’t Have to Dance Every Dance

By Ben Hunt | December 11, 2018 | 3 Comments
Posted:

Discretionary investment always and in all ways boils down to two things: edge and odds. In the US-China trade war game of Chicken, you have no edge. And you don’t know the odds. Time to sit this dance out.

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The ET Interviews: Banking the Unbankable

By Neville Crawley | December 10, 2018 | 0 Comments
Posted:

It’s possible to do good AND to do well. ET’s Neville Crawley interviews Lev Plaves, Senior Investment Manager at Kiva, on banking the unbankable – refugees and internally displaced populations.

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

By Ben Hunt | December 7, 2018 | 5 Comments
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Sometimes the dog that doesn’t bark gives as loud a warning as the dog that does. That was true for Sherlock Holmes, and it’s true for investors, too.

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The People are Revolting

By Rusty Guinn | December 5, 2018 | 10 Comments
Posted:

Just because something is true doesn’t mean that it can’t also be transformed into a meme. That is, in fact, the usual outcome when an idea encounters resistance. But this isn’t a path to truth.

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Inside the Skinner Box

By Rusty Guinn | December 3, 2018 | 8 Comments
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If you want to learn how you will be nudged in the future, look to the same places: Vegas and Video Games.

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The ET Interviews: Anti-Authoritarian Technology

By Neville Crawley | December 3, 2018 | 2 Comments
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Fresh thoughts on the intersection of technology, freedom and decentralization.
ET’s Neville Crawley interviews Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer for the Human Rights Foundation (HRF).

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Pics or It Didn’t Happen

By Ben Hunt | December 1, 2018 | 10 Comments
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What will it take to Burn The Oligarchy Down? Pics of a certain sort. Which is why “doctored” will be 2019’s Word of the Year.

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Fiat News Index – November 2018

By Rusty Guinn | December 1, 2018 | 6 Comments
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In our November 2018 update to the Fiat News Index, we review some topics that media outlets are even happier than usual to tell us how to think about.

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Burn. It. Down.

By Ben Hunt | November 28, 2018 | 18 Comments
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It’s almost as if there’s a ruling class.

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Take Back Your Thinking

By Neville Crawley | November 26, 2018 | 7 Comments
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In the Common Knowledge World, we lose the ability to distinguish between what we think and what we think we think. It’s Fiat Thought, and here’s how you beat it.

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Deals Are My Art Form

By Rusty Guinn | November 26, 2018 | 2 Comments
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The emphasis of asset owners on private assets investments is meta-stable – robust to a lot of potential changes in market environment. The reason? The deals! meme.

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American Gods

By Ben Hunt | November 25, 2018 | 11 Comments
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Every idea has a story, but the story is not the idea. Stories are born, they live, and they die. But if the idea is powerful enough, it can find a new story and be reborn. Crypto must find a new story.

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What’s Your Metagame? An Open Letter to the Crypto Community

By Ben Hunt | November 23, 2018 | 21 Comments
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It’s an invitation to explore a joint research program, as described in TFA3. It’s an invitation to share ideas on liberty, resistance and technological advancement. It’s NOT an invitation to share ideas about money.

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Gratitude

By Rusty Guinn | November 22, 2018 | 10 Comments
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To our readers, to our supporters, to our engaged commenters, and to the people who have compared Epsilon Theory to drinking paint, a word: thanks.

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The Power of Neg

By Ben Hunt | November 21, 2018 | 5 Comments
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It’s an old chess saying: “The easiest way to defeat a gambit is to refuse it.”

But that’s just the start of a successful metagame.

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Say Uncle!

By Rusty Guinn | November 21, 2018 | 2 Comments
Posted:

I don’t know what the Fed should do in December. But I do know how financial media (and Donald Trump) want you to think about what they should do in December.

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