Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Politics

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2018 | 0
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Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.

How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Markets

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018 | 22

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They’re major market risks, but you’ll survive.

There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 1)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2018 | 7

Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

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Tony Soprano stares at you menacingly

Things Fall Apart (Part 2)

By Ben Hunt | September 4, 2018 | 0

Part 2 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper.

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Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 16

What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.

It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.

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That’s Just Putting On a Nice Sweater

By Rusty Guinn | November 18, 2018 | 1 Comment
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When something becomes as necessary, accepted and right-sounding as ‘process’, it can be tough to tell the difference between the cartoon and the genuine article.

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Cards of Control and a Brave Little Toaster

By Neville Crawley | November 17, 2018 | 0 Comments
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All the tech links you need for a great weekend read.

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You Had A Stamp Collection?

By Ben Hunt | November 16, 2018 | 3 Comments
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A quick note on no-coiners, people (like me) who have never owned Bitcoin, but have just watched from afar. We’re being played. Not to buy Bitcoin, but to obey the logic of the flock.

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When That Fire Hits

By Rusty Guinn | November 15, 2018 | 1 Comment
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Our brains’ responses to memes are mostly existential – fight or flight. We can’t turn off these responses. But we can train our behavior to question them.

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The Sicilian Offense

By Rusty Guinn | November 14, 2018 | 4 Comments
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I don’t know that any investor’s mean expectation for Amazon ought to have moved an inch. But should a poorly played metagame change investors’ probabilistic outlook? I think so.

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I Know Why the Caged Bird Speaks

By Ben Hunt | November 14, 2018 | 9 Comments
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In the construction of Fiat News, it’s the choice of facts and the choice of words that preserve the power to make us feel. Because that’s the only thing that really matters – how do the words make you FEEL?

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Working to Protect the World from Bananas

By Neville Crawley | November 12, 2018 | 11 Comments
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With technology, even totalitarian surveillance technology, there typically is no ‘big bang’, just a bunch of independent systems coming on line, getting networked together, and then a tipping point. We’re there with China.

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Foundation and Empire

By Ben Hunt | November 12, 2018 | 6 Comments
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How can US household net worth continue to outpace US economic growth if the Fed won’t play ball with easy monetary policy? History shows another way to keep the party going

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The Fiat News Index

By Rusty Guinn | November 11, 2018 | 14 Comments
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Common criticisms of the news media tend to focus on bias. But when it comes to learning to resist the unavoidable influence of narrative and meme on our brains, our focus should be on how much we allow others to explain things to us. We’re working on tools to allow citizens to do exactly that.

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Notes from the Diamond #4: Less Is More

By David Salem | November 10, 2018 | 2 Comments
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Peer group comparisons are the primary measuring stick of both baseball GMs and investment PMs. Here’s how they are used and (more often) abused.

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Infrastructure Week!

By Ben Hunt | November 9, 2018 | 8 Comments
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There’s a dog that didn’t bark in the midterm campaign. And its silence tells me a lot about where this country is going.

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Hey, Maybe It’s the Needle

By Rusty Guinn | November 9, 2018 | 5 Comments
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A good model isn’t just right. A good model has to be relevant. And in a world of abstraction and narrative, engaging in relevant ways demands much more of us.

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Control Point

By Neville Crawley | November 7, 2018 | 7 Comments
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Neville Crawley, CEO of Kiva, returns to Epsilon Theory with “Rabbit Hole”, a regular series of notes on the nexus of government, society and technology.

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Draft Day

By Rusty Guinn | November 7, 2018 | 9 Comments
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We are wired to associate outcomes with the biggest single visible variance. This is a process-breaking flaw for general managers and portfolio managers alike.

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ET In the News: Midterm Election Edition

By Rusty Guinn | November 5, 2018 | 0 Comments
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A round-up of the most representative stories about the midterm elections between 9/30/2018 and 11/5/2018.

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The Madame Bovary Effect

By Ben Hunt | November 4, 2018 | 4 Comments
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One way or another, boredom must be eliminated. It’s as much an iron law of markets as the impact of greed and fear. And it’s just as powerful.

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You Are What Your Record Says You Are

By Ben Hunt | November 3, 2018 | 11 Comments
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It’s the defining quote for any performance-based social system, whether it’s football, politics, or markets. So let me ask you this: who owns your record?

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Kings Unwilling

By Rusty Guinn | November 2, 2018 | 3 Comments
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Humility is in short supply on Wall Street. But the humility! meme is not. Developing a process to understand the difference is important for any asset allocator.

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A False Sense of Stability

By Peter Cecchini | November 2, 2018 | 0 Comments
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In the first note from new Epsilon Theory contributor Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald, Peter gives us a window into what a false sense of stability may mean for investors heading into the end of 2018.

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Insert XS Pun Here

By Rusty Guinn | November 1, 2018 | 3 Comments
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The iPhone XS launch is attached to the strongest pre- and post-launch narrative of any September launch since the iPhone 6. Does that tell you how to trade it? No. Can it help you think about how different outcomes might shape your thesis – and the thesis you believe other investors are following? Yes.

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