Epsilon Theory Professional
In The Flow
You know, I was a big fan of stock buybacks back when I was running a fund, and I still think that most of the macro reasons to oppose stock buybacks are silly.
But when I look at it from a micro or individual company perspective, there is no doubt in my mind that stock buybacks have been totally hijacked by corporate management and boards over the past few years to sterilize exercised options and restricted stock units.
I’m not THAT into dominoes, but I am into figuring out what’s next for changes in the Fed narrative and how that impacts markets.
More evidence that the Common Knowledge around the Fed has shifted dramatically, and more evidence for where this shows up next in markets …
I think these emergency actions in the repo market – and to be sure, these ARE emergency actions – and now the expansion of the balance sheet to get more cash into the system, are the clearest indications yet that the Fed has lost its fundamental credibility with Mr. Market.
THE FED IS CONCERNED ABOUT “MAINTAINING A FIRM GRIP” ON ITS CONTROL OVER THE PRICE OF MONEY.
As they say in the twitterverse, let that sink in.
Narrative Monitors
All reports and files updated through October 31, 2019.
ET Pro Inflation Monitor
We track the prevalence and attention of inflation topics in financial and broadly circulated news sources, including their attachment to narratives around financial markets.
Updated through October 31, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor
We track the prevalence and attention of credibility attached by a wide variety of news sources to central banks and their influence on participants in financial markets.
Updated through October 31, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET Trade and Tariffs Monitor
We track the attention paid to and sentiment of a various trade and tariff-related topics in a range of news sources, especially with respect to their attachment to financial market narratives.
Updated through October 31, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET US Fiscal Policy Monitor
We track the strength and consistency of narratives about US fiscal policy, including budgets, tax policy and debt.
Updated through October 31, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET Credit Cycle Monitor
We track the strength of narratives about the credit cycle in general, plus lending, liquidity and other trends in credit markets.
Updated through May 31, 2019 - Please note that we are presently reworking this monitor's queries to ensure that it accurately reflects narratives concerning credit markets. In our opinion, intersection with consumer credit topical discussions has made it too insensitive to changes in institutional credit markets narratives - we will resume updating and publishing once we identify workable queries for going-forward analysis.
ET US Recession Monitor
We track the strength and consistency of narratives about potential US recessionary pressures.
Updated through October 31, 2019. Updated monthly.
In Focus
ET In Focus reports are single-issue topical analyses. They cover investment and portfolio construction topics, issues relating to the businesses of investment management and wealth management, and narrow analyses of the narrative structure and trends on specific issues, companies, sectors, countries or financial markets.
Our updated positioning views for the month of September 2019.
At the request of some ET Pro subscribers, we explore current Big Tech Monopoly narratives. We find an increasingly cohesive, negative narrative that has almost no market attention.
The updated views for August from our ETNA framework for the analysis of narrative structure on US Equity sectors.