Epsilon Theory Professional
In The Flow
Quantitative analysis is all well and good, but when someone starts peddling you charts or measures when you KNOW that the underlying data is unknowable, you are dealing with a cargo cultist. When it comes to Covid-19, nobody has time for that.
As of February 27, even after a 10% drawdown, we believe the narrative about Covid-19 is complacent.
Not gonna lie … this virus got us in the first half.
But if we prepare and strengthen our healthcare systems NOW, particularly in cities like Jakarta, we can still win the game.
Two narratives jumped sharply in structural attention scores over the past few months.
One is something we’ve already written a lot about – Inflation.
The other is something we’re writing a lot about now – China is lying with its nCov2019 data.
Narrative Monitors
Monitors updated through January 31, 2020
ET Pro Inflation Monitor
We track the prevalence and attention of inflation topics in financial and broadly circulated news sources, including their attachment to narratives around financial markets.
Updated through January 31, 2020. Updated monthly.
ET Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor
We track the prevalence and attention of credibility attached by a wide variety of news sources to central banks and their influence on participants in financial markets.
Updated through January 31, 2020. Updated monthly.
ET Trade and Tariffs Monitor
We track the attention paid to and sentiment of a various trade and tariff-related topics in a range of news sources, especially with respect to their attachment to financial market narratives.
Updated through January 31, 2020. Updated monthly.
ET US Fiscal Policy Monitor
We track the strength and consistency of narratives about US fiscal policy, including budgets, tax policy and debt.
Updated through January 31, 2020. Updated monthly.
ET Credit Cycle Monitor
We track the strength of narratives about the credit cycle in general, plus lending, liquidity and other trends in credit markets.
Update as of November 30, 2019: After our hiatus, we have reworked the queries and logic on credit to arrive at a better representation of the topic we wish to track. Any reports from May 2019 and before will be retained for posterity, but represent an old and different methodology.
ET US Recession Monitor
We track the strength and consistency of narratives about potential US recessionary pressures.
Updated through January 31, 2020. Updated monthly.
In Focus
ET In Focus reports are single-issue topical analyses. They cover investment and portfolio construction topics, issues relating to the businesses of investment management and wealth management, and narrow analyses of the narrative structure and trends on specific issues, companies, sectors, countries or financial markets.
Our updated positioning views for the month of September 2019.
At the request of some ET Pro subscribers, we explore current Big Tech Monopoly narratives. We find an increasingly cohesive, negative narrative that has almost no market attention.
The updated views for August from our ETNA framework for the analysis of narrative structure on US Equity sectors.