Epsilon Theory Professional
In The Flow
I honestly have no idea what the world is going to look like in six months! I’m sure I’m not alone. And if you honestly have no idea what the world is going to look like in six months, are you going to live up to your commercial obligations (like a lease) over the next six months as if the world is still spinning as always on its axis?
We update our thinking based on the framework we published on 3/17, especially in two areas with active changes in narrative structure: fiscal and monetary policy responses.
After a few weeks of historic market volatility, we reexamine the framework we would use to think about the implications of Covid-19 and the mitigation response for multi-asset portfolios.
There’s a lot of first-level thinking going on, and navigating the transition from uncertain markets back to risky markets means avoiding their pitfalls in our portfolio and risk management processes.
All of our thinking about CV-19 is wrong and all of our decision-making about CV-19 is wrong because we believe we’re getting “information”, when actually all we’re getting is an irrelevant error distribution.
ET In Focus reports are single-issue topical analyses. They cover investment and portfolio construction topics, issues relating to the businesses of investment management and wealth management, and narrow analyses of the narrative structure and trends on specific issues, companies, sectors, countries or financial markets.
Our updated positioning views for the month of September 2019.
At the request of some ET Pro subscribers, we explore current Big Tech Monopoly narratives. We find an increasingly cohesive, negative narrative that has almost no market attention.
The updated views for August from our ETNA framework for the analysis of narrative structure on US Equity sectors.
In this ET Pro In Focus note, we explore the narrative structure of ESG and SRI investing. Our question: is it finally part of the Zeitgeist, or a trend that will continue to come and go?
For fund managers and asset management executives, the fundraising question is often the most important and most inscrutable. Understanding how narratives and career risk factors interact with decision-making processes is critically important.
Monitors updated through January 31, 2020. As Ben noted in his weekly ET Professional note, we are reworking these monitors to be more useful, intuitive and actionable. We look forward to rolling out these more useful monitors to ET Pro subscribers in early April.
Attention on and cohesion of Central Bank macro narratives rose sharply in January. We believe that this is largely the result of a (hopefully!) short-term …