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In The Flow

But Barry Sternlicht Says …

I honestly have no idea what the world is going to look like in six months! I’m sure I’m not alone. And if you honestly have no idea what the world is going to look like in six months, are you going to live up to your commercial obligations (like a lease) over the next six months as if the world is still spinning as always on its axis?

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Pandemic Playbook Notes – 3/23

We update our thinking based on the framework we published on 3/17, especially in two areas with active changes in narrative structure: fiscal and monetary policy responses.

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Pandemic Playbook – 3/17

After a few weeks of historic market volatility, we reexamine the framework we would use to think about the implications of Covid-19 and the mitigation response for multi-asset portfolios.

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First-Level Foolishness

There’s a lot of first-level thinking going on, and navigating the transition from uncertain markets back to risky markets means avoiding their pitfalls in our portfolio and risk management processes.

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Minimax Regret

All of our thinking about CV-19 is wrong and all of our decision-making about CV-19 is wrong because we believe we’re getting “information”, when actually all we’re getting is an irrelevant error distribution.

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In Focus

ET In Focus reports are single-issue topical analyses. They cover investment and portfolio construction topics, issues relating to the businesses of investment management and wealth management, and narrow analyses of the narrative structure and trends on specific issues, companies, sectors, countries or financial markets.

ETNA US Sector Observations – September 2019

Our updated positioning views for the month of September 2019.

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Big Tech Anti-Trust Narratives: Deteriorating but Disconnected

At the request of some ET Pro subscribers, we explore current Big Tech Monopoly narratives. We find an increasingly cohesive, negative narrative that has almost no market attention.

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ETNA US Sector Observations – August 2019

The updated views for August from our ETNA framework for the analysis of narrative structure on US Equity sectors.

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Is ESG Now Part of the Zeitgeist?

In this ET Pro In Focus note, we explore the narrative structure of ESG and SRI investing. Our question: is it finally part of the Zeitgeist, or a trend that will continue to come and go?

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How (And How Not) To Raise Money

For fund managers and asset management executives, the fundraising question is often the most important and most inscrutable. Understanding how narratives and career risk factors interact with decision-making processes is critically important.

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Narrative Monitors

Monitors updated through January 31, 2020. As Ben noted in his weekly ET Professional note, we are reworking these monitors to be more useful, intuitive and actionable. We look forward to rolling out these more useful monitors to ET Pro subscribers in early April.

Inflation Monitor – 1.31.2020

Attention on inflation rose rapidly and surprisingly in January, we think in response to two developments:The very modest emergence of inflation in even heavily cartoonified …

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Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor – 1.31.2020

Attention on and cohesion of Central Bank macro narratives rose sharply in January. We believe that this is largely the result of a (hopefully!) short-term …

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Trade and Tariffs Monitor – 1.31.2020

Attention on Trade and Tariffs topics rose somewhat, but the inclusion of coronavirus language proved a distraction to the stories being told about them rather …

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US Fiscal Policy Monitor – 1.31.2020

Like other topics, Recession narratives rose somewhat in attention and cohesion, but less dramatically than other categories. We believe that this is because coronavirus outbreak …

Read moreUS Fiscal Policy Monitor – 1.31.2020

Credit and Debt Monitor – 1.31.2020

The decline in the strength of the Q4 narrative of a risk of “collapse” in credit markets continued in January. Uniquely among our macronarratives, cohesion …

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US Recession Monitor – 1.31.2020

Like other topics, Recession narratives rose somewhat in attention and cohesion, but less dramatically than other categories. We believe that this is because coronavirus outbreak …

Read moreUS Recession Monitor – 1.31.2020