ET on Tape

ET on Tape

The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | July 31, 2019 | 10 Comments

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.

We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.

Tick-tock.

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Anytime, Anywhere

The only thing better than reading an Epsilon Theory note is listening to one! We know our notes can be long and wordy. To best accommodate our readers and spread our message as far as possible, we've created a collection of audio recordings of our favorite notes. Now you can listen to Epsilon Theory anytime, anywhere!

Newest Recording

This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things

Part 13 of the Notes from the Field series discusses the Narrative Machine, which can help us see the invisible memes that drive our political behaviors. Because you’re smart enough to make up your own damn mind.

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All Epsilon Theory Recordings

Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

By Ben Hunt | July 9, 2022

Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much faster than our economy.

The bill is due for their hubris, and inflation is here to collect it.

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The Long Now, Pt. 4 – Snip!

By Ben Hunt | December 26, 2019

The Long Now has severed the tether between taxation and spending – the most important macroeconomic policy relationship in our social lives as both investors and citizens.

Here’s what that means.

And here’s what we’re going to do about it.

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The Long Now, Pt. 3 – Wink

By Ben Hunt | October 17, 2019

I believe that we are on the cusp of the Long Now becoming irreversible. Or at least irreversible without a cataclysmic Fall.

Why? Because they have mastered the art of stealing our tells. At scale.

Here’s how we start to confound the stolen tells. At scale.

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The Long Now, Pt. 2 – Make, Protect, Teach

By Ben Hunt | September 11, 2019

It’s time to start a fire. To burn, yes, but also to illuminate.

My advice? Abandon the political party as your vehicle for political participation.

My alternative? Find your Pack.

My platform? Make – Protect – Teach.

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The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | July 31, 2019

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.

We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.

Tick-tock.

Read more

A Song of Ice and Fire

By Ben Hunt | May 27, 2019

We are the human animal.

We are non-linear.

We ARE a song of ice and fire.

It’s a song that has built cathedrals and fed billions and taken us to the moon. It’s a song that can do all of that and more … far, far more … if only we remember the tune.

The Pack remembers.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 4)

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2018

Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.

How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3)

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They’re major market risks, but you’ll survive.

There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 2)

By Ben Hunt | September 4, 2018

Part 2 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 1)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2018

Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

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This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things

By Ben Hunt | May 22, 2018

Part 13 of the Notes from the Field series discusses the Narrative Machine, which can help us see the invisible memes that drive our political behaviors. Because you’re smart enough to make up your own damn mind.

Read more

Good Job!

By Ben Hunt | March 1, 2018

This is Part 11 of Ben’s Notes from the Field series. I don’t need to calculate a Sortino ratio to know if my dogs are doing a Good Job. Same with active investment management. Same with active citizenship. It’s all about embracing Convexity, not as a mathematical cartoon, but as a philosophy.

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Too Clever By Half

By Ben Hunt | February 5, 2018

The inevitable result of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS ends up empowering the State. When too clever by half people misplay the meta-game, that’s all the excuse the State needs to come swooping in and crush them, just as they are with Bitcoin today they did with Bear and Lehman in 2008. Installment #10 from Notes from the Field.

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The Three-Body Problem

By Ben Hunt | December 21, 2017

What if I told you that the dominant strategies for human investing are, without exception, algorithms and derivatives? I don’t mean computer-driven investing, I mean good old-fashioned human investing … stock-picking and the like. And what if I told you that these algorithms and derivatives might all be broken today? You might want to sit down for Part 9 of the Notes from the Field series.

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Pecking Order

By Ben Hunt | November 29, 2017

The pecking order is a social system designed to preserve economic inequality: inequality of food for chickens, inequality of wealth for humans. We are trained and told by Team Elite that the pecking order is not a real and brutal thing in the human species, but this is a lie. It is an intentional lie, formed by two powerful Narratives: trickle-down monetary policy and massive student debt financing. Part 8 of the Notes from the Field series.

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Clever Hans

By Ben Hunt | October 26, 2017

Part 7 of Ben’s Notes from the Field series reminds us that you don’t break a wild horse by crushing its spirit. You nudge it into willingly surrendering its autonomy. Because once you’re trained to welcome the saddle, you’re going to take the bit. We are Clever Hans, dutifully hanging on every word or signal from the Nudging Fed and the Nudging Street as we stomp out our investment behavior.

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Sheep Logic

By Ben Hunt | October 5, 2017

In Part 6 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben observes that we think we are wolves, living by the logic of the pack. In truth we are sheep, living by the logic of the flock.

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Always Go To the Funeral

By Ben Hunt | August 23, 2017

There’s a pose that very sick farm animals sometimes take when they’re near death, where they lie down and twist their head way back into their shoulder in a very unnatural way. It’s an odd sight if you don’t know what it signifies, a horrible sight if you do.

Both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are starting to twist their heads back into their shoulders. I don’t know if it’s too late to save them or not, but I’m increasingly thinking that it is. We need to start thinking about the funeral, who’s going to speak, and what they’re going to say.

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The Arborist

By Ben Hunt | August 10, 2017

In Part 4 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben identifies how the natural lines of a tree and shaping the tree to follow those lines over time is a lot like shaping a portfolio.

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Horsepower

By Ben Hunt | August 3, 2017

There is no animal more important to the ascendancy of Western Civilization than the horse, and no invention more important than the horse collar. After all nothing shapes history like advances in productivity. Part 3 of Ben’s Notes from the Field series here.

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