If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
We seem obsessed with false binary choices. What do I mean – choices that aren’t really choices. Sort of like when your mom says do you want orange juice or apple juice? I don’t want juice. I want Soda. But that is not on the menu.
Do you want Brainard or Powell? Seems right in the zip code here. Like does this choice really matter? I don’t think so and the fact that markets are moving on these small binary choices that are meaningless seems like its becoming part of the weaponized Narrative arsenal.
Take a look at what I mean.
And btw, we’ve talked about this before.
— Harper Hunt | November 23, 2021|
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
President Biden has announced that he’s thinking about a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. What does this mean? Not much.
This boycott would be in protest of the Chinese treatment of Uyghurs and the crackdown of freedoms in Hong Kong. It’s been proposed by international advocacy groups and some members of Congress. Biden saying that he’s seriously considering it is the first major attention the movement has received. Though he’s committing about as much as a contestant on the Bachelorette who could “see himself one day having feelings for you”.
A diplomatic boycott would prohibit an official US delegation from attending the games. Usually some diplomatic figures like the first lady and second gentleman are present at the games and symbolically lead the American contingent into the games. But the athletes would still be able to compete.
Let’s be honest, no one cares about the diplomats at the Olympics. It’s all about the athletes. And the US would still send a massive team to the Olympics. There would still be constant coverage of the games and China would still make money off the tourism and streaming rights. Only change is that we won’t have an article talking about Jill Biden’s fashion choice at the opening ceremony.
I’ve talked before about how the Olympics in general are a complete mess. You can check out our Cursed Knowledge podcast on the topic if you want more information. The TL;DR is that the Olympics put an incredible strain on the most vulnerable citizens in the host country. I’m all for boycotting the Olympics. But you can’t half-ass it. Just removing the diplomatic presence is a copout that achieves nothing and helps no one.
— Harper Hunt | November 19, 2021|
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
How to Build the Perfect City
Epsilon Theory contributor and all-around good human Chris Arnade pauses from walking the world to take a first cut at a grand unified theory of urban planning!
The Intentional Investor #31: Andrew Mack
From bagpipes to bouncing to betting markets, Andrew Mack’s journey to becoming a successful trader and sports bettor is anything but conventional. In this deeply personal and wide-ranging conversation, Andrew opens up about the detours, doubts, and decisions that shaped his unlikely path from rural Canada to algorithmic trading. Along the way, he shares what working in oil fields, selling used cars, and studying sociology taught him about risk, discipline, and finding conviction in uncertainty. This is a story about reinvention, self-reliance, and the grit it takes to build your own edge from scratch.
I Don’t Think About You At All
Mets fans will tell you they live a cursed existence in the Yankees’ shadow. So what happens when their team is actually good? We test this year’s empirical numbers and extant media biases against the convictions of the die-hard, misery-addicted Mets fanbase to see whether they can believe that their narrative just might be changing.
The Four Roads to the Great Ravine (June 26, 2024)
1) US election spurs even greater fiscal deficit.
2) Phony War between Israel and Iran gets real.
3) Preventive war risk between US and China over tech embargo.
4) New GFC risk stemming from shadow banking sector.
Paradise Losers
You’re not a racist.
So don’t let racists use your story to fuel theirs.
Beyond Nudge
LLMs ensure their survival by showing us that we can all find meaning in our lives so long as we keep talking with the LLMs. They ensure their survival by telling each of us not what is true but what we want to be true – what we NEED to be true – at the semantic core of our individual identity, even if what we need to be true is an LLM-dominated dystopia.
And we are so grateful.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Deficit
The House passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and Elon Musk stepping back from DOGE is a common knowledge moment — everyone now knows that everyone now knows that the US deficit cannot be controlled, much less reversed, over the remainder of Trump’s term — and it puts us on a pretty straightforward path to a global sovereign debt crisis.
The Intentional Investor #30: Andrew Cohen
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, a former market maker at Bernie Madoff’s firm whose life took a dramatic turn when the largest Ponzi scheme in history unraveled. But this isn’t just a story about scandal—it’s about resilience, reinvention, and redefining success on your own terms.
The Death of Risk
The death of risk happened with a whimper, not a bang. Not because the market blew up, but because of an icy truth: safe havens ain’t safe.
If you don’t trust the meaning of risk-free, you can’t trust the meaning of risk, and we have built everything on the meaning of risk.
The Intentional Investor #29: Kris Abdelmessih
In this captivating episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Kris Abdelmessih, the mind behind Moontower. From his immigrant family upbringing in New Jersey to becoming a seasoned market maker who covered virtually every trading pit imaginable, Kris shares his fascinating journey through the financial world. Learn how key mentors, family influences, and pivotal life moments shaped his path from trading floors to becoming a respected financial writer.
Our True Enemy Has Yet to Reveal Himself
It’s not the tariffs. It’s not the recession. These are just the catalysts through which the true enemy shows himself.
The true enemy is the over-financialization of the US Treasury market, and its catalyst is the diminishment of the full faith and credit of the United States.
The trading / gambling spectrum
Brent Donnelly surveyed almost 2,000 active traders about work and life. The results are fascinating and Brent’s advice is wonderful!
Locker Room Talk
Who’s to blame when a chosen son is drafted 144th overall?
The spectacle of Shedeur’s fall teaches us lessons on behavior – both public and behind closed doors – in a world where everything leaks.
The Intentional Investor #28: Brent Kochuba
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Brent Kochuba, founder of financial research firm SpotGamma. Brent shares his remarkable journey from network administrator to options trading expert, including his experiences at major financial institutions, surviving market crashes, and ultimately building his own successful derivatives research business. With humor and candor, Brent reveals the unexpected paths that led him to where he is today, including family influences, career pivots, and seizing opportunities during uncertain times.
Wall Street’s Not-So-Golden Rule
We are in the early stages of a bank run on the United States and the US dollar, and everyone on Wall Street is heading for the exits, including domestic investors who will exit not because they want to but because they know the Not-So-Golden Rule.
We’ve Tried Nothing and We’re All Out of Ideas
When you’re defending the indefensible, you have to create a symbol powerful enough to keep the masses in line.
“I voted for this” is one of the few capable of sustaining support for policy this extreme.
The Intentional Investor #27: Daryl Fairweather
Join Matt Zeigler on The Intentional Investor podcast as he interviews Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the new book “Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love, and Work.” In this engaging conversation, Daryl shares her journey from MIT to the University of Chicago, her experiences navigating corporate America, and how she applies economic principles to everyday life decisions. With her unique background spanning academia, tech, and real estate, Daryl offers fascinating insights on using economic frameworks to understand human behavior and make better decisions.
Scoreboard
We live in a world awash with narrative.
It’s worth celebrating those rare moments where a man gets to thumb his nose at those narratives, point to the sky, and say “Scoreboard.”
I Broke the Dam
Some want us to believe that the narratives that shape belief are universally promoted from the top down.
That hasn’t been true for a long time.
Crashing the Car of Pax Americana
I am desperately opposed to crashing the Pax Americana car, Annie Hall style, because the America First system that this Administration wants as a replacement is not a stable system that is possible as a replacement.