If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
The first actual rich person I ever met, I met at Wharton.
Same goes for the second, third and probably 100th, for that matter. At 17, I couldn’t have told you what a trust fund was, described what an investment banker did, or listed a single prestigious preparatory high school in the country. Life, as they say, comes at you fast.
So when this tweet from a Wharton professor went viral over the last 24 hours, I had to chuckle.
Why was this worth a chuckle? Couple of reasons. First, because the Narrative that emerged from the tweet’s language – that rich students at an elite university are shockingly out of touch – is entirely consistent with my anecdotal experience. America’s elite universities are overflowing with some of the dumbest smart people you will ever meet. Strong Lucille Bluth guessing at the price of a banana energy.
The second reason I chuckled is that the narrative that emerged from the tweet had very little to do with its actual content. In fact, Dr. Strohminger went on to observe in the thread that she doesn’t think this is an unusual feature of these students at all, but rather the tendency of our individual estimates about population averages to be really, really bad.
What the tweet said is that 25% of students thought the mean income in America was over $100,000. A hundred grand is a really bad guess against the true number of $45-$50,000, but not wildly off relative to the average household income of $70-75,000 that some students probably had in their heads when they read the question. Figure that some of them probably thought they were being particularly clever by estimating greater skewness from income inequality pushing the mean above the more familiar median, and the 25% number giving an outlier answer is sort of worth a yawn in my book.
But what the tweet said doesn’t matter. How did it make us feel?
Even without intent on the part of the author, even without a fact pattern that supported it, the narrative that this was “about out-of-touch rich kids” resonated in all of our brains without a thought.
This, my friends, is our brains on Meme and metaverse.
— Rusty Guinn | January 20, 2022
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
I love West Side Story. In every form and in every retelling I love it. Now I could spend a few hours recapping the story, the historical and cultural significance of the 1961 and 2021 films, and the differences between the two. But let’s cut to the chase.
The Golden Globes were last night and Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story won 3 very important awards. Best Musical or Comedy, Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, and Best Supporting Actress in any Motion Picture. While it is a little ridiculous that West Side Story is in a “comedy” category, the acting awards are really interesting. It sets up Rachel Zegler (Maria) and Ariana DeBose (Anita) as front runners for the upcoming Oscars. Both are in positions to follow in the footsteps of some incredible EGOT women.
If DeBose wins, she will follow Rita Moreno who won Best Supporting Actress for the role of Anita in 1961. Moreno was the first Latina to win an Oscar and went on to win the Triple Crown of Acting and achieve EGOT status. She also appeared in the 2021 film as Valentina and served as an executive producer.
If Zegler wins, she follows Barbra Streisand and Julie Andrews. If you don’t know who they are, you’re lying. This is Zegler’s first film role. Ever. Spielberg cast her when she was just 17. If she wins off of her debut film performance that’ll put her in the same list as Andrews in Mary Poppins (1965) and Streisand in Funny Girl (1969).
So keep an eye on the awards this year. Cause something’s coming….
— Harper Hunt | January 10, 2022|
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger Narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
Beyond Nudge
LLMs ensure their survival by showing us that we can all find meaning in our lives so long as we keep talking with the LLMs. They ensure their survival by telling each of us not what is true but what we want to be true – what we NEED to be true – at the semantic core of our individual identity, even if what we need to be true is an LLM-dominated dystopia.
And we are so grateful.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Deficit
The House passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and Elon Musk stepping back from DOGE is a common knowledge moment — everyone now knows that everyone now knows that the US deficit cannot be controlled, much less reversed, over the remainder of Trump’s term — and it puts us on a pretty straightforward path to a global sovereign debt crisis.
The Intentional Investor #30: Andrew Cohen
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, a former market maker at Bernie Madoff’s firm whose life took a dramatic turn when the largest Ponzi scheme in history unraveled. But this isn’t just a story about scandal—it’s about resilience, reinvention, and redefining success on your own terms.
The Death of Risk
The death of risk happened with a whimper, not a bang. Not because the market blew up, but because of an icy truth: safe havens ain’t safe.
If you don’t trust the meaning of risk-free, you can’t trust the meaning of risk, and we have built everything on the meaning of risk.
The Intentional Investor #29: Kris Abdelmessih
In this captivating episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Kris Abdelmessih, the mind behind Moontower. From his immigrant family upbringing in New Jersey to becoming a seasoned market maker who covered virtually every trading pit imaginable, Kris shares his fascinating journey through the financial world. Learn how key mentors, family influences, and pivotal life moments shaped his path from trading floors to becoming a respected financial writer.
Our True Enemy Has Yet to Reveal Himself
It’s not the tariffs. It’s not the recession. These are just the catalysts through which the true enemy shows himself.
The true enemy is the over-financialization of the US Treasury market, and its catalyst is the diminishment of the full faith and credit of the United States.
The trading / gambling spectrum
Brent Donnelly surveyed almost 2,000 active traders about work and life. The results are fascinating and Brent’s advice is wonderful!
Locker Room Talk
Who’s to blame when a chosen son is drafted 144th overall?
The spectacle of Shedeur’s fall teaches us lessons on behavior – both public and behind closed doors – in a world where everything leaks.
The Intentional Investor #28: Brent Kochuba
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Brent Kochuba, founder of financial research firm SpotGamma. Brent shares his remarkable journey from network administrator to options trading expert, including his experiences at major financial institutions, surviving market crashes, and ultimately building his own successful derivatives research business. With humor and candor, Brent reveals the unexpected paths that led him to where he is today, including family influences, career pivots, and seizing opportunities during uncertain times.
Wall Street’s Not-So-Golden Rule
We are in the early stages of a bank run on the United States and the US dollar, and everyone on Wall Street is heading for the exits, including domestic investors who will exit not because they want to but because they know the Not-So-Golden Rule.
We’ve Tried Nothing and We’re All Out of Ideas
When you’re defending the indefensible, you have to create a symbol powerful enough to keep the masses in line.
“I voted for this” is one of the few capable of sustaining support for policy this extreme.
The Intentional Investor #27: Daryl Fairweather
Join Matt Zeigler on The Intentional Investor podcast as he interviews Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the new book “Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love, and Work.” In this engaging conversation, Daryl shares her journey from MIT to the University of Chicago, her experiences navigating corporate America, and how she applies economic principles to everyday life decisions. With her unique background spanning academia, tech, and real estate, Daryl offers fascinating insights on using economic frameworks to understand human behavior and make better decisions.
Scoreboard
We live in a world awash with narrative.
It’s worth celebrating those rare moments where a man gets to thumb his nose at those narratives, point to the sky, and say “Scoreboard.”
I Broke the Dam
Some want us to believe that the narratives that shape belief are universally promoted from the top down.
That hasn’t been true for a long time.
Crashing the Car of Pax Americana
I am desperately opposed to crashing the Pax Americana car, Annie Hall style, because the America First system that this Administration wants as a replacement is not a stable system that is possible as a replacement.
Narrative Shopping
The Trump administration has flipped between a half dozen distinct narratives telling us what these tariffs are really about.
Why? Because they needed to wrap the truth in a better story. Time to go Narrative Shopping.
The Intentional Investor #26: Danika Waddell
Join host Matt Zeigler as he interviews Danika Waddell, founder of Xena Financial Planning, in this engaging conversation about career pivots, financial independence, and creating a more inclusive financial services industry. Danika shares her journey from accounting to launching her own financial planning firm during the pandemic, and how her personal experiences shaped her mission to help women in tech achieve financial independence.
The Intentional Investor #25: Cullen Roche
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, host Matt Zeigler sits down with Cullen Roche, an economist, writer, and financial maverick who has carved out a unique space in the world of finance through his independent thinking and unconventional approach. From his large Irish Catholic family to his journey through finance, Cullen shares an intimate look at how curiosity, non-conformity, and a commitment to understanding complex systems have shaped his professional and personal life.
The Goldstein Machine
A threat built on a shred of truth, an existential fear, and our utter inability to stop it is the perfect tool for psychological control at scale.
It is a Goldstein Machine.
The Intentional Investor #24: Ben Hunt
In this profound follow-up conversation, Matt Zeigler welcomes back Ben Hunt to explore the evolution of Hunt’s writing and worldview. Beginning with reflections on their childhood relationships with religion and storytelling, the discussion moves into Hunt’s journey with Epsilon Theory – from its market-focused origins to his current philosophical crossroads.