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Reinventing the Financial System

By Marc Rubinstein | June 15, 2021 | 4 Comments

If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.

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Coming Soon to CBS

From the ET Forum ...

The Activist is an upcoming reality show that really shouldn’t have made it past the “there are no bad ideas” stage of development. It’s the most tone deaf, disconnected concept I’ve ever seen.

The basic idea is that the show will feature six activists from around the world and follow them as they “compete in missions, media stunts, digital campaigns and community events”. Think Shark Tank meets The Apprentice. Contestants will be judged on how much social media engagement they receive, and the grand prize is an opportunity to attend the G20 Summit in Rome.

Yeah.

Contestants will be judged not by quality of their work but by the quality of their Instagram captions.

The show and its marketing campaign present this very shallow idea of supporting activism and getting them mainstream attention. But the show isn’t prepared to follow through on helping create change. The prize isn’t money or manpower. It’s a chance to beg powerful people to pretend to care.

At its core, this show is not about activism and social change. It’s about social media attention. Just look at the judges! Usher, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, and Julianne Hough have no experience in activism aside from Instagram posts and speaking at charity events. They’re not leaders of change. They’re mid-level celebrities who wouldn’t be out of place judging The Masked Singer.

The show has been justly lambasted on social media as literally everyone has a problem with the premise. It’s been called “performance activism personified” and it is. It’s encouraging participants and viewers to see activism not as something meant to enact change, but a way to get attention. It sets a standard that successful activism isn’t making change, it’s getting likes and views. It ignores the small, boring, and thankless work that is done on a grassroots level. The work we need to see more of.

We don’t need more beautiful people talking about how they use metal straws to save the sea turtles. We need more people who are willing to do the work. This show isn’t doing anything to help anyone and I, for one, will not be watching.

— Harper Hunt | September 16, 2021|

The Widened Gyre

From the ET Forum …

Yesterday, the 20th anniversary of 9/11, I read and heard several mainstream references to “the Widening Gyre”. It makes sense that yesterday would spur that sort of Narrative connection, as the juxtaposition of the political images and texts from then and now is breathtaking. It’s amazing (and obvious), how polarized we’ve become over the past two decades.

But at this point – where the Widening Gyre is not happening but has already occurred – I think what we’re seeing is the Widened Gyre, where everything is autotuned to the poles of the gyre, including references to the Widening Gyre itself!

Case in point, on Twitter I am now routinely criticized for “contributing” to the Widening Gyre if I don’t engage in perfunctory political whataboutism on any topic that has a political dimension … which is to say ALL topics.

What is the Widened Gyre?

Yesterday, the most recent former president of the United States gave a paid speech to Moonies and then made a paid appearance at a sham boxing match where 58-year-old Evander Holyfield was knocked out in 90 seconds.

On 9/11.

And it will change no one’s politically polarized views. Not his supporters. Not his detractors. No one.

The Widened Gyre is a VERY stable equilibrium.

— Ben Hunt | September 12, 2021|

Oh, a Rhinoceros

A video made the rounds on various social media platforms last night and this morning. By now you have probably seen it. A young man presents his case for a mask policy to the school board in Rutherford County, Tennessee. He recalls the death of his grandmother by COVID and begins to express fear that this could happen to other people he cares about.

And that’s where most cuts of the video end. You see, the young man’s speech was interrupted by the shouting and snickering of adults behind him. Adults holding ‘Let our kids smile’ signs.

Source: Rutherford County (TN) Board of Education

Elsewhere on the internet, there is a very similar – and very different – trend emerging. It is a simple Meme. You find someone who dies of COVID or asks for prayer or good thoughts after having downplayed the virus, the vaccine or masks only weeks or days before. Then you juxtapose their statements for internet points. If you’re in a particularly virulent version of this community, maybe you even post something vile on their family’s announcement of the person’s passing on Facebook. This is NOT cherry-picking. There are entire social media sub-communities and hashtags devoted to these memes.

We have written several times about the imagery of Ionesco’s landmark play Rhinoceros. I’m abridging rather thoroughly here, but the main conceit of the play is that the humans gradually change into rhinoceroses. But the shock of the story isn’t the devastation the beasts cause, rampaging about town. The shock is that, at some point, we are no longer shocked. We see the family, friend, neighbor or colleague we once knew and and say simply, “Oh, a rhinoceros.”

Many of us today will shrug and say, “Oh, a rhinocerous” to adults laughing and jeering at a child discussing his grandmother’s death. The Real Issue, you see, is that the child made a statement about the role of masks with inadequate information to justify his claim, and that might unduly influence local policy.

Many of us today will shrug and say, “Oh, a rhinoceros” to those who barge in on a family grieving the loss of someone they shared their entire lives and dreams with. The Real Issue, you see, is the good we can do by making an example of how wrong they were about COVID.

Maybe it’s time to remind ourselves that it isn’t normal for humans to transform into rhinoceroses.

Maybe it’s time to wrap up a little bit less of our individual and collective identity in Being Right About COVID.

Burying the Lede

For news junkies and the Very Online, one of the most well-traveled news stories over the past couple days has been the story of the “American students who are stranded in Afghanistan.”

The first version I read of the story came from this piece published by The Hill, although it borrows heavily from a piece published in the LA Times and San Diego Union-Tribune the same day.

Dozens of California students, parents stranded in Afghanistan after summer trip abroad [The Hill]

The key excerpt if you don’t feel like clicking over is here:

Dozens of California students and parents are stranded in Afghanistan after taking a summer trip to the country.

More than 20 students and 16 parents from the Cajon Valley Union School District in El Cajon, Calif., visited Afghanistan on summer vacation. Now they are among thousands of people who are waiting to leave the country amid the chaotic U.S. withdrawal that has caused political unrest across the nation, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Cajon Valley Superintendent David Miyashiro alerted school board members on Tuesday that he would be meeting with Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) to discuss the situation, the Times noted.

Source: The Hill

However much of the headline or article you read, you will still arrive at the same two questions that roughly half of America has since yesterday: (1) What the devil were a group of students doing taking a summer trip abroad in Afghanistan, and (2) Why is one of the students’ parents talking about worries that they are missing class?

It’s the funny thing about news. We more or less define it based on the assumption that it tells the truth, and this article does. These students from California absolutely went to Afghanistan over the summer. They are absolutely stranded there. These are facts.

But at some point here, you have to feel like a writer without an axe to grind might have felt inclined to mention that the California students are LITERALLY REFUGEES FROM AFGHANISTAN WHO WENT TO THEIR OLD HOME TO VISIT FRIENDS AND FAMILY. And look, that doesn’t change that they are people just as deserving of our efforts to extract safely as anyone else. It just takes away the single reason the article went viral, that is, that a bunch of kids going to Afghanistan for summer vacation seemed pretty wacky.

The ability to influence our behaviors as information consumers isn’t confined to whether we are explicitly being told how to think about something. Narrative is just as easily communicated through the selective absence of information, through its placement on a page, and through editorial decisions regarding the volume and emphasis of its coverage.

So which explanation for this preposterous framing do you think is true? And remember, you can always pick more than one:

  1. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. They just didn’t think about the very obvious omission, or they didn’t do the basic research to inform it.
  2. They were terrified of getting canceled for maybe implying that refugee status was a relevant detail to the story.
  3. Clickbait. C’mon.

Join us in the forum which you think it is – or offer another explanation!

— Rusty Guinn | August 26, 2021|

C’mon, Australia

From the ET Forum …

An Australian Pack member living abroad published what I think is an outstanding review of the depths to which Australia’s Covid-zero policy has descended. Here’s the skinny:

We are a country that pulls things out of the ground, sells coffee to each other, and invests every dollar we don’t have in residential property. And that’s been fine until this point. Australia, more than any other country, has ridden a wave of prosperity over the last 30 years that resulted in a quality of life almost unsurpassed anywhere in the world. But it has bred complacency, and the country’s response to COVID has revealed this complacency and its worrying lack of urgency. We’ve convinced ourselves that we generated long-term prosperity because there’s something special about us; but a lot of it’s been due to luck.

Taking a step back, Australia’s approach to COVID implicitly includes the following: a comfort with severely curtailing its citizens’ liberties; the capacity to absorb and pay for economic calamities; a belief that its brand is strong enough to recover from the damage inflicted and to once again attract talent and capital; zero tolerance for risk or its citizens ability to manage it; and conviction that trust in authority will remain despite all the failures, hostility and dishonesty.

Daniel Bookman

— Ben Hunt | August 25, 2021|

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 09.16.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 08.05.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Recent Notes

Manufactured Consensus

By Rusty Guinn | October 8, 2024

The more we believe the lie that social networks democratize narrative formation, the more systematically we make ourselves part of their manufactured consensus.

No, the world doesn’t hate America

By Chris Arnade | October 7, 2024

The global mass love for the US and its culture is genuine, and isn’t being forced on people from above, but because US culture – despite all the showy glitz – is about how everyone’s story matters.

Intentional Investor #14: Drew Dickson

By Harper Hunt | October 1, 2024

In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Drew Dickson, founder of Albert Bridge Capital. Drew shares his fascinating journey from self-proclaimed “world’s least focused student” to successful investor and writer. Drew’s journey illustrates the power of curiosity, relationships, and perseverance in building a meaningful career in finance. His story will inspire anyone looking to grow personally and professionally while navigating life’s ups and downs. This episode provides a fascinating glimpse into the mind of a seasoned investor, offering lessons applicable to both financial markets and life in general.

Generative AI is a Resurrection Machine

By Ben Hunt | October 1, 2024

Each of us has a unique story. A story that makes you you. A story that is the engine of your consciousness. A story that is your thread of life.

A story that today can be inferred from your words by generative AI and restored computationally, so that the thread of life remains uncut.

Everything is about to change.

Well, I’m Not AI (As A Strategy): WInAaaS!

By Matt Zeigler | September 30, 2024

We think it’s a human art vs. AI art problem, just like when my music friends and I thought it was an alternative vs. mainstream problem. The simple truth is, it’s a relationship-with-itself versus a relationship-with-yourself problem. 

The Contentapocalypse is Coming

By Scott Bradlee | September 30, 2024

AI is flooding our timelines with so much content that we won’t even find content very interesting anymore. It’s too much. Or, at least it will feel that way.

That’s when it will hit us; we don’t want this stuff at all. We don’t want content. We want art.

The Mr. Beast Memo is a Guide to the Gen Z Workforce

By Kyla Scanlon | September 24, 2024

“Lots of people are like nooo it’s not the phones. It’s the phones. Come on.”

No one gets the Algorithm and the way Gen Z is trapped by it better than Kyla Scanlon.

Donald Trump and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | September 24, 2024

The question is not whether Trump will accept the election result if he loses. He won’t.

The question is whether a missionary with actual power will join him.

The ETF Market: A Zine

By Dave Nadig | September 17, 2024

ET contributor Dave Nadig is not only singlehandedly bringing back the zine, he’s using it to explain ETFs better than anyone!

Intentional Investor #13: Mike Green

By Harper Hunt | September 17, 2024

The Intentional Investor with Matt Ziegler welcomes Mike Green, a veteran investor and financial thinker. In this wide-ranging conversation, Green offers a candid look at his journey in the financial world, blending personal anecdotes with thoughtful analysis of markets and investing. His stories highlight the unpredictable nature of both markets and life, and the importance of continuous learning and adaptation.
This episode provides a fascinating glimpse into the mind of a seasoned investor, offering lessons applicable to both financial markets and life in general.

Intentional Investor #12: Jim O’Shaughnessy

By Harper Hunt | September 6, 2024

On this episode of the Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler welcomes legendary investor and entrepreneur Jim O’Shaughnessy. Jim shares fascinating stories from his childhood, including memories of his influential grandfather, his early interest in magic, and how rejection shaped his mindset.

The discussion covers Jim’s journey into investing, his thoughts on education and critical thinking, and his experiences on Wall Street. Jim offers insights on topics like the power of journaling, the importance of empiricism, and his excitement for AI and new technologies.

The Intentional Investor #11: Eben Burr

By Harper Hunt | August 22, 2024

Join Matt Zeigler as he sits down with Eben Burr, a financial professional with a fascinating journey from the D.C. punk rock scene to the world of behavioral finance. Eben shares his unique perspective on investing, shaped by his diverse experiences in music, architecture, and finance.

Breaking News #27: When Common Knowledge Trumps Reality

By Harper Hunt | August 15, 2024

In the latest episode of Breaking News, we are joined by Epsilon Theory Co-Founder Rusty Guinn. We cover the latest developments in the 2024 election and explore how narratives are shaping the political landscape. We delve into the transition from Biden to Harris and examine the strategic implications and how it’s pushing us into what we’re calling our first “vibe election.” We also tackle the Fed’s independence and the potential for rate cuts, regardless of who wins. In our Tweet of the Week, we examine how AI-generated images and rapid narrative formation are changing political discourse, potentially disconnecting us from factual reality. We wrap up with a surprising deep dive into Chumbawamba, using their story to reflect on the importance of folk culture and being “more mid” in our increasingly polarized world.

Metametastasis

By Rusty Guinn | August 13, 2024

We are all concerned about how Gen AI may untether us from reality.

We are not nearly concerned enough about how media will have the ability to do the same through mature social networks.

The Intentional Investor #10: Grant Williams

By Harper Hunt | August 6, 2024

In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler talks with Grant Williams, a veteran of the finance industry and creator of the popular newsletter “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” Grant shares fascinating stories from his career journey, from trading Japanese equities in the 1980s to founding Real Vision. He discusses his approach to writing and interviewing, emphasizing the importance of building trust with an audience and focusing on quality content rather than chasing numbers. Grant also reflects on his experiences living and working around the world, the challenges of moving his family internationally, and his passion for sports. Throughout the conversation, he offers valuable insights on communication, community-building, and maintaining curiosity in both investing and life.

Make, Protect, Teach with Scott Bradlee: Part 1

By Harper Hunt | August 5, 2024

In our Saturday conclusion, Scott Bradlee of Post Modern Jukebox @postmodernjukebox joins Epsilon Connect 2024 to lead the conversation about what Make, Protect, Teach means to him. And show off his incredible musical talent!

Breaking News #26: The Biden Harris Swap

By Harper Hunt | August 1, 2024

In this episode of Breaking News, we cover the recent developments in the Democratic party, with Biden stepping aside and Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive nominee. We discuss how reality seems to be proclaimed rather than acknowledged, and how both parties seem more interested in conflict than actual policy solutions. We also touch on the SEC’s case against short-seller Andrew Left and the selective enforcement of rules in finance. We also debate the merits of giving green cards to foreign college graduates and how systems can be exploited by those with money. Finally, we explore the themes in Charlie XCX’s album “Brat,” relating it to the myth of Narcissus and broader questions of self-worth and community in our current cultural moment.

The Weird Thing

By Rusty Guinn | July 31, 2024

The weirdest thing about this “weird” campaign is how convinced some are that it represents a thoroughly directed, planned, systematic propaganda effort.

That’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works. Not any more, anyway.

We Are Losing Our Minds

By Rusty Guinn | July 30, 2024

Your brain evolved to perceive symbols.

Symbols evolved to be perceived by your brain.

Human society is evolving around a technology which exposes our brains to a barrage of seductive symbols.

And it’s making us lose our minds.

Being Human At An AI Conference: Epsilon Connect 2024 Notes

By Matt Zeigler | July 29, 2024

Matt Zeigler went to Epsilon Connect 2024: Being Human in the Age of AI.

It took him a while, but he figured out what it’s all about.