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Reinventing the Financial System

By Marc Rubinstein | June 15, 2021 | 4 Comments

If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.

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The Widened Gyre

From the ET Forum …

Yesterday, the 20th anniversary of 9/11, I read and heard several mainstream references to “the Widening Gyre”. It makes sense that yesterday would spur that sort of Narrative connection, as the juxtaposition of the political images and texts from then and now is breathtaking. It’s amazing (and obvious), how polarized we’ve become over the past two decades.

But at this point – where the Widening Gyre is not happening but has already occurred – I think what we’re seeing is the Widened Gyre, where everything is autotuned to the poles of the gyre, including references to the Widening Gyre itself!

Case in point, on Twitter I am now routinely criticized for “contributing” to the Widening Gyre if I don’t engage in perfunctory political whataboutism on any topic that has a political dimension … which is to say ALL topics.

What is the Widened Gyre?

Yesterday, the most recent former president of the United States gave a paid speech to Moonies and then made a paid appearance at a sham boxing match where 58-year-old Evander Holyfield was knocked out in 90 seconds.

On 9/11.

And it will change no one’s politically polarized views. Not his supporters. Not his detractors. No one.

The Widened Gyre is a VERY stable equilibrium.

— Ben Hunt | September 12, 2021|

Oh, a Rhinoceros

A video made the rounds on various social media platforms last night and this morning. By now you have probably seen it. A young man presents his case for a mask policy to the school board in Rutherford County, Tennessee. He recalls the death of his grandmother by COVID and begins to express fear that this could happen to other people he cares about.

And that’s where most cuts of the video end. You see, the young man’s speech was interrupted by the shouting and snickering of adults behind him. Adults holding ‘Let our kids smile’ signs.

Source: Rutherford County (TN) Board of Education

Elsewhere on the internet, there is a very similar – and very different – trend emerging. It is a simple Meme. You find someone who dies of COVID or asks for prayer or good thoughts after having downplayed the virus, the vaccine or masks only weeks or days before. Then you juxtapose their statements for internet points. If you’re in a particularly virulent version of this community, maybe you even post something vile on their family’s announcement of the person’s passing on Facebook. This is NOT cherry-picking. There are entire social media sub-communities and hashtags devoted to these memes.

We have written several times about the imagery of Ionesco’s landmark play Rhinoceros. I’m abridging rather thoroughly here, but the main conceit of the play is that the humans gradually change into rhinoceroses. But the shock of the story isn’t the devastation the beasts cause, rampaging about town. The shock is that, at some point, we are no longer shocked. We see the family, friend, neighbor or colleague we once knew and and say simply, “Oh, a rhinoceros.”

Many of us today will shrug and say, “Oh, a rhinocerous” to adults laughing and jeering at a child discussing his grandmother’s death. The Real Issue, you see, is that the child made a statement about the role of masks with inadequate information to justify his claim, and that might unduly influence local policy.

Many of us today will shrug and say, “Oh, a rhinoceros” to those who barge in on a family grieving the loss of someone they shared their entire lives and dreams with. The Real Issue, you see, is the good we can do by making an example of how wrong they were about COVID.

Maybe it’s time to remind ourselves that it isn’t normal for humans to transform into rhinoceroses.

Maybe it’s time to wrap up a little bit less of our individual and collective identity in Being Right About COVID.

Burying the Lede

For news junkies and the Very Online, one of the most well-traveled news stories over the past couple days has been the story of the “American students who are stranded in Afghanistan.”

The first version I read of the story came from this piece published by The Hill, although it borrows heavily from a piece published in the LA Times and San Diego Union-Tribune the same day.

Dozens of California students, parents stranded in Afghanistan after summer trip abroad [The Hill]

The key excerpt if you don’t feel like clicking over is here:

Dozens of California students and parents are stranded in Afghanistan after taking a summer trip to the country.

More than 20 students and 16 parents from the Cajon Valley Union School District in El Cajon, Calif., visited Afghanistan on summer vacation. Now they are among thousands of people who are waiting to leave the country amid the chaotic U.S. withdrawal that has caused political unrest across the nation, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Cajon Valley Superintendent David Miyashiro alerted school board members on Tuesday that he would be meeting with Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) to discuss the situation, the Times noted.

Source: The Hill

However much of the headline or article you read, you will still arrive at the same two questions that roughly half of America has since yesterday: (1) What the devil were a group of students doing taking a summer trip abroad in Afghanistan, and (2) Why is one of the students’ parents talking about worries that they are missing class?

It’s the funny thing about news. We more or less define it based on the assumption that it tells the truth, and this article does. These students from California absolutely went to Afghanistan over the summer. They are absolutely stranded there. These are facts.

But at some point here, you have to feel like a writer without an axe to grind might have felt inclined to mention that the California students are LITERALLY REFUGEES FROM AFGHANISTAN WHO WENT TO THEIR OLD HOME TO VISIT FRIENDS AND FAMILY. And look, that doesn’t change that they are people just as deserving of our efforts to extract safely as anyone else. It just takes away the single reason the article went viral, that is, that a bunch of kids going to Afghanistan for summer vacation seemed pretty wacky.

The ability to influence our behaviors as information consumers isn’t confined to whether we are explicitly being told how to think about something. Narrative is just as easily communicated through the selective absence of information, through its placement on a page, and through editorial decisions regarding the volume and emphasis of its coverage.

So which explanation for this preposterous framing do you think is true? And remember, you can always pick more than one:

  1. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. They just didn’t think about the very obvious omission, or they didn’t do the basic research to inform it.
  2. They were terrified of getting canceled for maybe implying that refugee status was a relevant detail to the story.
  3. Clickbait. C’mon.

Join us in the forum which you think it is – or offer another explanation!

— Rusty Guinn | August 26, 2021|

C’mon, Australia

From the ET Forum …

An Australian Pack member living abroad published what I think is an outstanding review of the depths to which Australia’s Covid-zero policy has descended. Here’s the skinny:

We are a country that pulls things out of the ground, sells coffee to each other, and invests every dollar we don’t have in residential property. And that’s been fine until this point. Australia, more than any other country, has ridden a wave of prosperity over the last 30 years that resulted in a quality of life almost unsurpassed anywhere in the world. But it has bred complacency, and the country’s response to COVID has revealed this complacency and its worrying lack of urgency. We’ve convinced ourselves that we generated long-term prosperity because there’s something special about us; but a lot of it’s been due to luck.

Taking a step back, Australia’s approach to COVID implicitly includes the following: a comfort with severely curtailing its citizens’ liberties; the capacity to absorb and pay for economic calamities; a belief that its brand is strong enough to recover from the damage inflicted and to once again attract talent and capital; zero tolerance for risk or its citizens ability to manage it; and conviction that trust in authority will remain despite all the failures, hostility and dishonesty.

Daniel Bookman

— Ben Hunt | August 25, 2021|

Kabul is Falling

From the ET Forum …

If Barbara Tuchman were alive she would be adding another chapter to her classic The March of Folly.

I am fascinated to see what narratives spring forth from this sad and tragic failure to accomplish anything other than leave behind a string of broken promises.

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‘‘Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other, and scarce in that; for it is true that we may give advice, but we cannot give conduct.” said another Ben

T.C.

— Ben Hunt | August 18, 2021|

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 03.17.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 03.10.24

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrativ‌e campaign.



Recent Notes

The Goldstein Machine

By Rusty Guinn | March 9, 2025

A threat built on a shred of truth, an existential fear, and our utter inability to stop it is the perfect tool for psychological control at scale.

It is a Goldstein Machine.

The Intentional Investor #24: Ben Hunt

By Harper Hunt | March 5, 2025

In this profound follow-up conversation, Matt Zeigler welcomes back Ben Hunt to explore the evolution of Hunt’s writing and worldview. Beginning with reflections on their childhood relationships with religion and storytelling, the discussion moves into Hunt’s journey with Epsilon Theory – from its market-focused origins to his current philosophical crossroads.

The Intentional Investor #23: Kevin Muir

By Harper Hunt | February 19, 2025

Kevin Muir, author of the Macro Tourist newsletter and a seasoned trader, joins The Intentional Investor for a fascinating conversation that weaves together trading, life lessons, and Canadian culture. From his early days mastering Monopoly statistics to pioneering computer-driven trading strategies at RBC in the 1990s, Kevin shares candid stories about finding his path in finance.
Kevin discusses growing up as the older brother of a professional hockey player, his journey from discount brokerage manager to institutional trading desk, and how becoming a father changed his perspective on risk and career. He offers unique insights into market psychology, friendship, and the importance of finding work you genuinely love.

It Was Never Going To Be Me

By Ben Hunt | February 18, 2025

The Road to Serfdom is not an endless road, but its path and duration, what I call the Great Ravine, is not up to us to choose. While we walk this road the only thing we can save is our souls, and we do it with one simple sentence: It was never going to be me.

The Intentional Investor #22: Eric Markowitz

By Harper Hunt | February 5, 2025

In this engaging episode of The Intentional Investor, host Matt Ziegler interviews Eric Markowitz, exploring his fascinating journey from investigative journalism to investment research. The conversation weaves through Eric’s formative years, professional evolution, and life-changing experiences, offering valuable insights into the intersection of media, investing, and personal growth.

DeepFreak

By Rusty Guinn | February 2, 2025

In seven days, a narrative about AI tech technology became a narrative about what it meant for chip manufacturers, which because a narrative about national security.

The Intentional Investor #21: Corey Hoffstein

By Harper Hunt | January 21, 2025

Join Matt Zeigler as he sits down with Corey Hoffstein, a successful entrepreneur and financial innovator, for a candid conversation about his remarkable journey from video game programmer to financial pioneer. In this wide-ranging discussion, Corey shares the story of his career trajectory – from teaching himself programming at age 12 to founding Newfound Research and developing groundbreaking investment strategies.

A Death in the Family

By Ben Hunt | January 20, 2025

Today I know that the meaning of the American Presidency is dead, and like the loss of a beloved family matriarch it’s a loss I’ll never get over. I know that I have to accept it, but I’ll never get over it. And right now I’m still pretty angry at ALL of them.

The Intentional Investor #20: Dr. Preston Cherry

By Harper Hunt | January 7, 2025

Join host Matt Zeigler as he sits down with Dr. Preston Cherry, founder and CEO of Concurrent Wealth Management and author of “Wealth in the Key of Life.” From his father’s treasured vinyl collection to transformative “fog years,” Dr. Cherry shares his journey of discovering the deep connections between music, money, and meaning.

The Four Horsemen of the Great Ravine, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | January 6, 2025

Every so often, things fall apart.

In the words of those who lived it, here are the vibes and the semantic signatures of the twentieth century’s most devastating social collapses.

From the meaning in their words, wisdom for our future emerges.

Data Engineer I

By Rusty Guinn | January 2, 2025

We’re looking for a Data Engineer to help build and maintain the data pipelines that power our AI-and NLP-driven narrative analysis platform. You’ll work with everything from structured financial data to unstructured news and social media content.

Business Analyst

By Rusty Guinn | January 2, 2025

Second Foundation Partners is looking for a Business Analyst to help us build tools that make sense of the world’s narratives using generative AI.

Digital Content Writer I

By Rusty Guinn | January 2, 2025

Second Foundation Partners needs a talented, passionate writer intrigued by the opportunity to bring data to life through engaging daily content about media, markets, and sports.

Chapter 6: The Possibility Engine

By Rusty Guinn | December 28, 2024

Humans evolved to acquire symbols as quickly as possible.

Language and storytelling evolved to be acquirable as easily as possible.

That’s why our tales spin us.

Chapter 5: The Axe that Never Was

By Rusty Guinn | December 21, 2024

Our brains evolved to tell stories before they evolved to speak.

This has fundamental implications for our susceptibility to communication in the networked age.

Chapter 4: Out of Eden

By Rusty Guinn | December 12, 2024

If we care about the influence of social networks on our minds, why are we talking about bipedalism and the 8 million year cycle of co-evolution it kicked off?

Because it defined how our young were parented, how we taught them, and what they were exposed to. Because it changed how our symbolic brains evolved.

Intentional Investor #19: Yuri Khodjamirian

By Harper Hunt | December 10, 2024

Join host Matt Zeigler as he interviews Yuri Khodjamirian, Chief Investment Officer at Tema ETFs, in this captivating episode of The Intentional Investor. From his early years during the collapse of the Soviet Union to building innovative investment products today, Yuri shares his remarkable journey through the world of finance and entrepreneurship.

Chapter 3: Caliban’s Garden

By Rusty Guinn | December 6, 2024

Man’s road to becoming a storyteller began with a single step.

That step kicked off millions of years of co-evolution of the human brain, society, language – and our relationship with story.

Chapter 2: What is Story?

By Rusty Guinn | December 2, 2024

There are a lot of ways to define a “story.”

But to understand how story interacts with human consciousness requires us to be more specific.

Intentional Investor #18: Jason Buck

By Harper Hunt | November 26, 2024

In this fascinating conversation, Matt Zeigler sits down with Jason Buck, co-founder of Mutiny Fund, to explore the unexpected intersections between entrepreneurship, risk management, and personal development. From selling mixtapes in rural Michigan to developing real estate in Charleston and ultimately founding an innovative investment firm, Jason’s journey challenges conventional wisdom about success and risk-taking.