If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
The Name of the Rose
If names be not correct, language is not in accordance with the truth of things. ― Confucius, “The Analects of Confucius” (551 – 479 BC)…
An Ice Bucket Dilemma
Something on the lighter side from Epsilon Theory today, as summer winds downs here in the last week of August. Most of us have seen videos galore…
One Little Old Russian Convoy
You know what I’ve noticed? Nobody panics when things go “according to plan”. Even if the plan is horrifying. If, tomorrow, I tell the press…
Here We Go Again
From an Epsilon Theory perspective, the scariest, most market risk-creating event of the past 48 hours had nothing to do with Iraq, nothing to do…
Fear and Loathing on the Marketing Trail, 2014
I shared a dark suspicion that the life we were leading was a lost cause, that we were all actors, kidding ourselves along on a…
Watching the Narratives
You think you’re alone until you realize you’re in it. Now fear is here to stay. Love is here for a visit. – Elvis Costello,…
Stalking Horse
[Jeremiah and Bear Claw hunt elk] Jeremiah: Wind’s right, but he’ll just run soon as we step out of these trees. Bear Claw: Trick to…
The Red King
“He’s dreaming now,” said Tweedledee, “and what do you think he’s dreaming about?” Alice said, “Nobody can guess that.” “Why, about you!” Tweedledee exclaimed, clapping…
The Donkey of Guizhou
There were no donkeys in Guizhou until an eccentric took one there by boat; but finding no use for it he set it loose in…
The Dude Abides: China in the Golden Age of Central Bankers
Today, however, the Chinese State faces two existential threats, each stemming from or accelerated by the Great Recession and Western policy responses to that crisis of market confidence.
First, QE and other “emergency” Western monetary policies of the past five years threaten the grand political unification of Deng Xiaoping from without.
Second, massive wealth inequality and concentration driven largely by those same monetary policies threaten it from within.
Long Term Parking
And I don’t want to hear about the freaking economy, either! Sil, break it down for ’em. What two businesses have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial?
Certain aspects of show business … and our thing.
Risk Analysis in the Golden Age of Central Bankers
When I was a little kid we had a sand box. It was a quicksand box. I was an only child … eventually. – Steven…
The Minsky Moment Meme
That’s not how it works. That’s not how any of this works. – Esurance “Beatrice” commercial There’s a wonderful commercial in heavy rotation on American television,…
When Does the Story Break?
Margaret Bourke-White took this photo of the Garment District in 1930. Every single person on the street is wearing a hat. How did THAT behavior change over time? How did the common knowledge that All Men Wear Hats change?
Answer: the Common Knowledge Game.
Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low
1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have…
All that Glitters
I’ve received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don’t include this flashpoint in my…
The Risk Trilogy
A trilogy is a pretty abstract notion. You can apply it to almost any three things. – Jonathan Demme Mozart: So then you like it?…
Core Curriculum
I distributed this Epsilon Theory reading list last summer, but it never made it to the website. Given the volume of requests I receive for…
The Business of Epsilon Theory
I started the Epsilon Theory project nine months ago with the publication of a “Manifesto” and an email to a few hundred friends and colleagues.…
The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…