If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
The Construction of Robert Capa
I went to the Democratic Convention as a journalist, and returned as a cold-blooded revolutionary. – Hunter S. Thompson Some people will say that words…
Whatever It Takes
A few observations on what to look for in the language of the FOMC announcement tomorrow from a game theoretic perspective. Ever since Mario Draghi…
The Stuka
The Fed is now playing the Common Knowledge game openly and directly, making public statements through their media intermediaries to tell you how ALL market…
A Dogmatic Slumber
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH WAR IS PEACE. – George Orwell, “1984” SECRETS ARE LIES SHARING IS CARING PRIVACY IS THEFT. – Dave Eggers, “The Circle”…
The 18th Brumaire of Janet Yellen
One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or ‘value investor’ if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of…
When E.F. Hutton Talks
If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. – Barack Obama Of course, one objective of both traditional and nontraditional policy…
The Wages of Fear
You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So…
Poindexter Über Alles
Recent papers written by Fed functionaries and the attendant media attention serve as a reminder of the academic and bureaucratic capture of the Fed. More…
A Game of Sentiment
I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows we know it. We’re a knowledgeable…
Render Unto Caesar
There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…
What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits
The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…
The Koan of Donald Rumsfeld
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are…
The Levelers
Mr. Incredible: You mean you killed off real heroes so that you could *pretend* to be one? Syndrome: Oh, I’m real. Real enough to defeat you! And…
A ‘Precise and Predictable’ Yellen Fed?
The pursuit of greater predictability and transparency in Fed communications is a mistake, particularly in the context of broad guarantees concerning world-shaking policies. We learned…
A World of Guarantees
“We’re gonna win the game. I guarantee it.” – Joe Namath, 3 days before Super Bowl III “Our torments also may in length of time…
It’s Always Something
More evidence that QE is no longer an emergency government policy, but is now a permanent government program. epsilon-theory-its-always-something-september-29-2013.pdf (508KB)
Uttin’ on the Itz
High hats and arrowed collars, white spats and lots of dollars Spending every dime, for a wonderful time If you’re blue and you don’t know…
Heeere Comes Lucky!
“It is my understanding that the Constitution of the United States allows everybody the free choice between cheesecake and strudel.” – Sky Masterson (“Guys and…
It Was Barzini All Along
“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” – Don Vito Corleone
Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.
Shifting Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence
The strong Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence, which solidified in late September 2012, is now clearly weakening in late August 2013. There are two strands…