Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low

0

1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have never been cheaper. How is this possible, you ask, with outright war simmering in Eastern Ukraine and China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea? Because Mario Draghi is “signaling” that he’s going to launch a European version of QE. Because the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence has never been stronger, and for markets this is the only thing that matters. Because we continue to live in the new Goldilocks environment, where mediocre growth is not so weak as to plunge us into recession but not so strong as to take central banks out of play. If the news gets a lot better the market will go down, and if the news gets a lot worse the market will go down. But what I call the Entropic Ending, a market-positive gray slog where global growth is more-or-less permanently crippled by the very monetary policies that prevent global growth from collapsing, can go on for a looooooong time.

epsilon-theory-equity-volatility-of-volatility-falls-to-all-time-low-may-12-2014.pdf (63KB)

0

Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
  Subscribe  
Notify of

Disclosures

This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements.

The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein.

This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities.

This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.