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Reinventing the Financial System

By Marc Rubinstein | June 15, 2021 | 4 Comments

If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.23.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.16.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.09.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.02.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 12.26.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



ZG-item-cap-black

Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.23.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 01.16.23

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



What Do We Need To Be True?

By Rusty Guinn | April 6, 2021 | 44 Comments

Modeling common knowledge by analyzing missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.

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A Tiger Can’t Change Its Stripes

By Ben Hunt | March 30, 2021 | 32 Comments

What do you get when you give a raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.

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Hot and Cold

By Rusty Guinn | March 23, 2021 | 26 Comments

Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.

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Recent Notes

The Music of the Spheres and the Alchemy of Finance

By Ben Hunt | July 7, 2013

“You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or…

How Gold Lost Its Luster, How the All-Weather Fund Got Wet, and Other Just-So Stories

By Ben Hunt | June 30, 2013

In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day.

Today our Common Knowledge is that gold is an insurance policy against central bank error.

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The Matrix Reloaded — Seeing Markets as Informational Structures

By Ben Hunt | June 27, 2013

A review of current market informational structure one week post the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-matrix-reloaded-seeing-markets-as-informational-structures-june-27-2013.pdf (295KB)

2 Fast 2 Furious

By Ben Hunt | June 23, 2013

We are all impaled on the crook of conditioning. – James Dean (1931 – 1955) This note is a sequel to my letter from two weeks…

The Narrative Battle is Joined

By Ben Hunt | June 21, 2013

A review of Narrative formation efforts on June 21st to support the market. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-battle-is-joined-june-21-2013.pdf (227KB)

What’s the Opposite of ‘Green Shoots’?

By Ben Hunt | June 20, 2013

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-whats-the-opposite-of-green-shoots-june-20-2013.pdf (235KB)

Failure to Communicate, Part Deux

By Ben Hunt | June 19, 2013

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the June 19th FOMC announcement. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15677/

Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2013

The first ET note focused on Information Theory.

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What We’ve Got Here Is … Failure to Communicate

By Ben Hunt | June 9, 2013

From the classic Paul Newman movie, Cool Hand Luke, as the Captain administers Luke’s punishment in the prison yard for yet another escape attempt:  Captain: You…

Epsilon Theory Manifesto

By Ben Hunt | June 1, 2013

Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective.

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Friday Was an Important Day

By Ben Hunt | November 18, 2012

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the Nov. 18th Boehner/Reid press conference. epsilon-theory-friday-was-an-important-day-november-18-2012.pdf (247 KB)

Don’t Mess with Mister In-Between

By Ben Hunt | November 8, 2012

Early research on the relationship between informational surfaces and structural market change. epsilon-theory-dont-mess-with-mister-in-between.pdf (244 KB)

Jack Welch was Right

By Ben Hunt | October 29, 2012

An analysis of systematic error in BLS data and its role in the Narrative regarding US labor conditions. epsilon-theory-jack-welch-was-right-october-29-2012.pdf (219 KB)

Donald Rumsfeld and Risk Management

By Ben Hunt | October 7, 2012

Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

By Ben Hunt | September 29, 2012

Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)

Dude, Where’s My Financial Repression

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2012

An initial analysis of the Sept. 15th FOMC announcement of open-ended QE. epsilon-theory-dude-wheres-my-financial-repression-september-15-2012.pdf (191 KB)

Why Do Words Matter So Much?

By Ben Hunt | August 30, 2012

Early notes on importance of Common Knowledge game in understanding market behavior. epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB) Test: epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB)