If you were a smart guy like MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor and you thought a stagflationary tsunami of enormous proportion was going to wash over the US economy regardless of who wins in November, what would you be doing right now?
I think you might be doing whatever you can to get liquid in the global reserve currency without spooking the marks.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.
Inflation
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed Narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
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Crypto
Recent Notes
Whatever It Takes
A few observations on what to look for in the language of the FOMC announcement tomorrow from a game theoretic perspective. Ever since Mario Draghi…
The Stuka
The Fed is now playing the Common Knowledge game openly and directly, making public statements through their media intermediaries to tell you how ALL market…
A Dogmatic Slumber
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH WAR IS PEACE. – George Orwell, “1984” SECRETS ARE LIES SHARING IS CARING PRIVACY IS THEFT. – Dave Eggers, “The Circle”…
The 18th Brumaire of Janet Yellen
One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or ‘value investor’ if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of…
When E.F. Hutton Talks
If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. – Barack Obama Of course, one objective of both traditional and nontraditional policy…
The Wages of Fear
You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So…
Poindexter Über Alles
Recent papers written by Fed functionaries and the attendant media attention serve as a reminder of the academic and bureaucratic capture of the Fed. More…
A Game of Sentiment
I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows we know it. We’re a knowledgeable…
Render Unto Caesar
There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…
What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits
The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…
The Koan of Donald Rumsfeld
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are…
The Levelers
Mr. Incredible: You mean you killed off real heroes so that you could *pretend* to be one? Syndrome: Oh, I’m real. Real enough to defeat you! And…
A ‘Precise and Predictable’ Yellen Fed?
The pursuit of greater predictability and transparency in Fed communications is a mistake, particularly in the context of broad guarantees concerning world-shaking policies. We learned…
A World of Guarantees
“We’re gonna win the game. I guarantee it.” – Joe Namath, 3 days before Super Bowl III “Our torments also may in length of time…
It’s Always Something
More evidence that QE is no longer an emergency government policy, but is now a permanent government program. epsilon-theory-its-always-something-september-29-2013.pdf (508KB)
Uttin’ on the Itz
High hats and arrowed collars, white spats and lots of dollars Spending every dime, for a wonderful time If you’re blue and you don’t know…
Heeere Comes Lucky!
“It is my understanding that the Constitution of the United States allows everybody the free choice between cheesecake and strudel.” – Sky Masterson (“Guys and…
It Was Barzini All Along
“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” – Don Vito Corleone
Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.
Shifting Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence
The strong Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence, which solidified in late September 2012, is now clearly weakening in late August 2013. There are two strands…
The Narrative Shift around Emerging Markets
The core Narrative around Emerging Markets is shifting away from growth and towards value. This is a profoundly disruptive development. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-shift-around-emerging-markets-august-21-2013.pdf (50KB)