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The Myth of Market In-Itself: Things That Matter #3, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2017 | 0 Comments
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…from the above chart — changes their mind about the price at which they would buy or sell. Someone who didn’t have a view before decides to express a view….

The MacGuffin, Part 1: The Corrupt Crypto ‘Revolution’

By Ben Hunt | May 17, 2022 | 79 Comments
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…where everyone buys Bitcoin. Where you are encouraged to buy Bitcoin. Where Bitcoin is sold to you morning, noon and night. Where normie economists get on conference calls late at night because they’re Bitcoin price-curious. Except…

Death and Rebirth: In Precious Metals, Crypto, and the 6th Grade

By Matt Zeigler | February 5, 2024 | 10 Comments
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…Twitter at @cultishcreative. As with all of our guest contributors, Matt’s post may not represent the views of Epsilon Theory or Second Foundation Partners, and should not be construed as…

The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX

By Ben Hunt | November 18, 2022 | 51 Comments
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…the market-maker that people use. You need to provide ‘liquidity’ (being the buyer or seller temporarily if there’s no buyer or seller you can match with the seller or buyer…

Mailbag! Fall 2017 Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2017 | 0 Comments
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…(who represent things I abhor) from “winning.” But in the process, I now find myself siding with another group that also represents these same things that I abhor. This cognitive…

Narrative and Metaverse, Pt. 4 – Carrying the Fire

By Ben Hunt | August 17, 2022 | 16 Comments
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…their labor. Inevitably, debt stops being expressed as a level in a company town, and is instead expressed as an ability to pay, where no one talks about the absolute…

We the People? We the Pack.

By Ben Hunt | July 14, 2020 | 21 Comments
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…Gyre that we’ve been writing about for years now. Literally for years. 2016 https://www.epsilontheory.com/virtue-signaling-or-why-clinton-is-in-trouble/ 2017 https://www.epsilontheory.com/always-go-to-the-funeral/ 2018 https://www.epsilontheory.com/things-fall-apart-pt-1/ 2019 https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-long-now-pt-1/ 2020 https://www.epsilontheory.com/once-in-a-lifetime/ I just never thought it would come to…

Notes From the Field

By Ben Hunt | July 7, 2017 | 1 Comment
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…Treasury buyer has to buy mortgages to get the same portfolio return as before. The cautious mortgage buyer has to buy corporate debt to get the same portfolio return as…

Wall Street’s Merry Pranks: Things that Matter #4

By Rusty Guinn | December 12, 2017 | 0 Comments
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…treat you like a partner, and pay them. But not too much. [1] Here, we present this as a historical analysis. No resampling, etc. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15781/…

Adventures in Hollow Market – SoftBank

By Ben Hunt | September 7, 2020 | 2 Comments
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…stocks”. I’d buy billions of dollars worth of large-cap and mega-cap stocks that get enormous press coverage and trade at a high multiple. Step #2: I’d buy call options on…

In the Flow – Chef’s Knives

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2019 | 9 Comments
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…can buy and sell commodity contracts on ICE, you can buy and sell index CDS. Anyone can own a chef’s knife today. Here’s the core Bloomberg screen (CDSW) for any…

The Fed’s Kryptonite

By Peter Cecchini | March 4, 2021 | 4 Comments
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balance sheet; and 3) it buys Treasuries with the excess reserves. All of this effectively funds short (issues FRNs) to buy long and transforms the duration of longer-duration Treasuries into…

“Quantile Tracking Errors (QuTE)” by Aguilar, Chengan, and Custovic

By Academic Research Author | October 16, 2020 | 0 Comments
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…and Vanguard https://www.vanguard.com.hk/documents/understanding-td-and-te-en.pdf [3] CFA Institute https://www.cfainstitute.org/-/media/documents/support/programs/investment-foundations/19-performance-evaluation.ashx?la=en hash=F7FF3085AAFADE241B73403142AAE0BB1250B311, International Organization of Securities Commissions and European Securities and Markets Authority https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD414.pdf [4] Zephyr https://www.styleadvisor.com/content/tracking-error, Vanguard https://www.vanguard.co.uk/documents/adv/literature/understand-excess.pdf, Envestnet https://www.envestnet.com/sites/default/files/documents/A%20Tracking%20Error%20Primer%20-%20White%20Paper.pdf [5] Each series…

Things Fall Apart (Part 3)

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018 | 23 Comments
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…to have to move faster and faster the more it moves at all. I think that today’s head-scratcher for the world’s central banks — why haven’t our easy money policies…

The Fall of Wuhan

By Ben Hunt | February 24, 2020 | 14 Comments
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Beijing last week, I was so impressed in my meeting with President Xi at his detailed knowledge of the outbreak, and for his personal leadership … if it weren’t for…

Fidelity Reminds ETF Industry It Doesn’t Have To Care

By Dave Nadig | April 25, 2024 | 7 Comments
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…Nikko before selling the firm to Barclays to form BGI, before THAT got bought to become Blackrock/iShares as it exists today. In the early 2000s Dave joined what would become ETF.com,…

The Grifters, Chapter 3 – Election Prediction

By Ben Hunt | November 9, 2020 | 31 Comments
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…would say. In truth, this is a picture of Nate Silver speaking at the “ABC Leadership Breakfast” during Advertising Week XII. Of course Advertising Week uses the same numbering system…

Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 19 Comments
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…then and now, that good deeds can buy you a place in heaven. As in literally buy you a place in heaven, because supporting the Church with your donation of…

First the People

By Rusty Guinn | April 14, 2020 | 69 Comments
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…large were the stock buybacks? Two-thirds of American’s $13 billion in stock buybacks over this six year period occurred over these same months. Here’s another fun fact about Doug Parker….

NGMI

By Ben Hunt | April 11, 2022 | 131 Comments
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…at $40k. NGMI.” or “I sent Jimmy the links to my due diligence on Gamestop and MOASS, but he still didn’t buy. NGMI.” It’s meant as an accusation of a…