The Most Important Trading Decision
Trading is hard. Your odds of success are heavily influenced by the seat you choose. Retail trader or bank trader or PM, here are metrics to evaluate …
Category: In Brief
Cursed Knowledge #10: This Podcast Never Happened
We've all fallen victim to a bad retcon at some point in our lives. It's Sherlock Holmes coming back from the dead. It's the reveal that an entire sea…
Money Can Buy Happiness (in variable and diminishing quantities)
What does your money/happiness curve look like? Is it curved or linear? Does it flatline somewhere? If so, where?
There's the game of trading and the…
Winner’s Tilt
The most damaging stories and narratives are not those that others tell us, but those that we tell ourselves.
Waiting for the Dog to Bark
In the days leading up to their invasion of Ukraine, Russia successfully mounted a largescale cyberattack on Ukrainian banks, utilities and government…
They’re Not Sending Their Best
The Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act is an abomination. It won't lower gas prices, it will raise them. And the sponsors of the bill know it.
This bil…
Cursed Knowledge #9: Cat Eyes, Full Ass, Can’t Smile
We've all felt insecure about our looks at one point or another. Especially in our chronically online world where how you look can be your whole brand…
Tough Guys
Using NATO to escalate a shooting war with Russia - either directly through a no-fly zone or indirectly through a Polish cut-out and NATO "backfill" -…
The Reckless Driver! TM Narrative
Reckless Drivers! is the dominant narrative for increased traffic deaths in the US. It's dominant not because it's true (it's not), but because it ser…
Quitters
in the spirit of the question we are always asking ourselves at Epsilon Theory - WHY AM I READING THIS NOW? - Brent asks a slightly different question…
Cursed Knowledge #8: Bad Publicity
Someone once said there's no such thing as bad publicity. With all due respect, this person is an idiot. Publicity, both good and bad, can have major …
Getting to War
The international "negotiations" over Ukraine are 100% designed for domestic Russian consumption. They are as necessary a part of successfully invadin…
Stocks and Bonds
Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…
Libor
Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…
That Funny Feeling
The AI censors at YouTube banned a video by ET contributor Brent Donnelly for all the wrong reasons.
Meanwhile, the AI censors at Twitter won't ban a…
Cursed Knowledge #7: Birkin Bags
Birkin bags are one of the ultimate symbols of status. But how did that happen? And are they worth the hype?
Federal Reserve
Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…
Inflation/Deflation
Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…
Inflation and the Common Knowledge Game
At whatever point in time you think inflation will start to fade, you are being too optimistic.
Why? Because common knowledge.