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Category: In Summary

Seems Like Old Times

For a solid two years, call it early 2011 through early 2013, comparative euro-area gov't bond yields was the first chart I’d look at in the morning…
Ben Hunt May 25, 2022
0 Comments

But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™

If there’s one common knowledge narrative that I think can break over the coming months, it’s But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™.
Ben Hunt May 10, 2022
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The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

I’d like to tell you that our Narrative Monitors are not as bearish for May as they were for April. Yep, I'd really like to tell you that.
Ben Hunt May 5, 2022
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We’re Entering a Deleveraging Cycle

The big global risk today is not that the banks are undercapitalized. No, the big global risk today is that banks are unwilling to provide long-term f…
Ben Hunt April 26, 2022
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Aaaaand It’s Gone

The narrative puts and takes of March (and the resulting market rollercoaster) have coalesced into no puts and all takes. This is about as bearish a s…
Ben Hunt April 6, 2022
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The Word of the Day is “Soothing”

I personally thought what Powell said in his presser today was market-negative. But who cares what I think! What matters is how market participants ar…
Ben Hunt March 16, 2022
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Trading Sardines

In commodity markets, crypto markets, and equity markets ... we're all sardine traders now.
Ben Hunt March 10, 2022
0 Comments

Weeks Where Decades Happen

I don’t think the proposed Russia sanctions are likely to trigger a systemic financial crisis, and I think Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling is postu…
Ben Hunt February 27, 2022
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The Inflation Narrative’s Third Act

The structure of a market narrative isn’t as settled or as constructed as a Hollywood script, but it’s not too far off, either. We're in Act Thr…
Ben Hunt February 8, 2022
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A Shortseller’s Perspective

I am a shortseller by nature and (former) profession. Like my favorite comic book character, Karnak the Inhuman, my superpower is to see the flaw in a…
Ben Hunt January 24, 2022
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Bye Bye, Punch Bowl

You know who understands how inflation absolutely wrecks the popular support of any government? The Fed. You know who doesn’t get it? You know who …
Ben Hunt January 5, 2022
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Inflation Is

Today Jay Powell had a press conference, where he had a very simple and well-delivered message: Inflation Is. Does this mean that we’re off to the …
Ben Hunt December 16, 2021
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Corporate Margins Are Stronger Than You Think

Inflation as common knowledge gives pricing power to consumer-facing companies.
Ben Hunt December 1, 2021
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Industrially Necessary Inflation

Is the narrative machine of Wall Street powerful enough to create a perceived reality of “transitory” inflation even if that transitory-ness is al…
Ben Hunt November 23, 2021
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Lions and Tigers and Bears … Oh My!

If I had to describe our narrative models of market behavior as simply as possible, it would go something like this: markets climb a narrative wall of…
Ben Hunt November 4, 2021
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The Robbing Hoods of Robinhood

Robinhood has been managed to generate a payday for insiders. Then again, that’s how our entire world is being managed today. For a payday to insi…
Ben Hunt October 27, 2021
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The Common Knowledge OF Central Banks

This note isn’t about our common knowledge of central banks. It's about the common knowledge within the crowd of people who are engaged in the profe…
Ben Hunt October 20, 2021
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Big Change in the Narrative Weather

Our directional equity narrative signals have switched from bullish to bearish, and our equity trend narrative signals now point to a 0% allocation to…
Ben Hunt October 4, 2021
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The Unbearable Lightness of Corporate Margins

Labor inefficiencies are so bad for FedEx that their return on invested capital (and FedEx has a LOT of capex) is, like, maayyybe greater than their w…
Ben Hunt September 27, 2021
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Why Take A Chance?

Is Evergrande a systemic risk? Is this China’s Lehman moment? I don’t know. Could be. But unless and until the market loses confidence in China…
Ben Hunt September 20, 2021
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