Category: In Summary

I feel like Clint Eastwood has said the line “a man’s got to know his limitations” or something similar in every movie he’s ever appeared in, …

It’s an interesting period of time in the world of professional investing right now, where everyone is going through the old motions and observing t…

This week we’ve got a new big note on AI, a new set of Narrative Monitors with several new signals triggered, and two new articles from the past wee…

Assuming that Treasury and the Fed have stopped the immediate, fast-motion bank run at First Republic and created a reasonable firewall (and I think t…

Last week I wrote that my spidey-sense was not tingling when it came to systemic risk for the banking system, that I just didn’t see the pervasive r…

Over the past week we’ve had one bank fail (Silvergate) and another forced to raise new equity and start protesting-too-much about how there’s no …

ODTE stands for zero days to expiry, and it’s the catch-all phrase for options that expire the same day they are written. ODTEs are all the rage, …

I’m 58 years old, and this is the greatest level of direct military confrontation between the world’s superpowers in my adult lifetime.

“Narrative Stability, Hanging by a Thread” is a badly mixed metaphor, but it conveys exactly what we’re seeing in narrative-world these days. W…

Nothing gets my spidey-sense tingling more than a market that looks benign enough, but has enormous carnage occurring just below the surface. And that…

Whether or not Blackstone and Starwood are successful in maintaining the Story of Adequate Liquidity and preserving their private REIT franchises thro…

I expect Wall Street and financial media to trumpet the “soft landing” thesis pretty loudly over the next few weeks. Is this correct? Personally, …

If you are responsible for Other People’s Money, you sever ties with your undercapitalized, overlevered broker before there’s a run on the bank. Y…

I believe quite strongly that Bankman-Fried should be questioned a) by professionals, b) under oath, and c) in a venue that allows for evidence to be …

A big change in our narrative monitors this month! Also, some shocking (to me, anyway) data on how good some companies are with their stock buybacks,…

In Q4 2007 – in the aftermath of the Bear Stearns MBS funds going out (June), the blow-up across most quant funds (August), and both autos and housi…

Everywhere you look today, you are seeing Wall Street and Washington missionaries using annualized month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter inflation …

My rule of thumb is that it takes about two months for the dead bodies of institutional investment firms that have been drowned by some macro turn of …

The math that drives 2023 dovish hopes on Wall Street and the White House is this: string 12 months of constant +0.2% month-over-month CPI readings to…