Category: In Summary

The math that drives 2023 dovish hopes on Wall Street and the White House is this: string 12 months of constant +0.2% month-over-month CPI readings to…

In times of profound informational need – like today when we *really* need to know if inflation is embedded in the real economy – we are desperate…

Multiple not-seen-in-a-quarter-century events have occurred over the past six weeks in rates-world. The lack of narrative attention is striking, as ar…

I believe that it is impossible in a robust, ie, non-financialized and non-levered macroeconomic world, for a nation’s people to be a lot richer tha…

It feels weird to be rooting for a Volcker-esque recession and long bear market as the best potential outcome for where we are today. But there are wo…

We have two new narrative signals here in June, both Bullish in direction, which is a welcome change from the largely uniform Bearish signals of April…

For a solid two years, call it early 2011 through early 2013, comparative euro-area gov't bond yields was the first chart I’d look at in the morning…

If there’s one common knowledge narrative that I think can break over the coming months, it’s But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™.

I’d like to tell you that our Narrative Monitors are not as bearish for May as they were for April. Yep, I'd really like to tell you that.

The big global risk today is not that the banks are undercapitalized. No, the big global risk today is that banks are unwilling to provide long-term f…

The narrative puts and takes of March (and the resulting market rollercoaster) have coalesced into no puts and all takes. This is about as bearish a s…

I personally thought what Powell said in his presser today was market-negative. But who cares what I think! What matters is how market participants ar…

In commodity markets, crypto markets, and equity markets ... we're all sardine traders now.

I don’t think the proposed Russia sanctions are likely to trigger a systemic financial crisis, and I think Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling is postu…

The structure of a market narrative isn’t as settled or as constructed as a Hollywood script, but it’s not too far off, either. We're in Act Thr…

I am a shortseller by nature and (former) profession. Like my favorite comic book character, Karnak the Inhuman, my superpower is to see the flaw in a…

You know who understands how inflation absolutely wrecks the popular support of any government? The Fed. You know who doesn’t get it? You know who …

Today Jay Powell had a press conference, where he had a very simple and well-delivered message: Inflation Is. Does this mean that we’re off to the …

Inflation as common knowledge gives pricing power to consumer-facing companies.