Category: In Summary

I think we are about to experience a pretty dramatic resurgence in inflation.

This is a common knowledge moment for the global financial system -- everyone now knows that everyone now knows that the US deficit cannot be controll…

I think we are now resuming our regularly scheduled entertainment, which means dollar down, gold up, and everyone – and I do mean everyone – poise…

It’s really pretty stunning how the largest sovereign bond market in the world (the United States) and the third largest sovereign bond market in th…

Like every insurance CIO at this conference, I also think that the Fed will step in as a buyer of last resort if we have a flash crash in Treasuries. …

I think that no matter what happens in the US-China trade war, the professional investment and allocation world no longer trusts the global prime brok…

I know it feels like everyone in our world is talking about capital flight out of the US, and our gut reaction (or at least my gut reaction) is to fad…

Every strategic interaction that the United States government participates in, both domestically and internationally, is transforming from a Coordinat…

Today’s market breakdown – because that’s what it was, an ugly gross deleveraging breakdown – had little to do with ‘recession fears’, and…

I’ve rarely seen a more powerful political and market narrative – we’re going to trigger a recession and that’s a good thing! – flowing just…

Some quick thoughts on the inflation data out this week, along with the unusual market reaction to same.

We’ve analyzed DeepSeek narratives in global news media over the past week to evaluate how they’re evolving. What started as a dominant narrative …

In meme-world and videogames and pop culture, you ‘one-shot’ an opponent when you kill him with a single, devastating attack. Everyone is all set …

As much as our modern day Number Six – Fed Chair Jay Powell – may protest that he is a free man with lots of wiggle room on the pace of future rat…

I think the scrum is a great metaphor for what’s happening everywhere in the world right now, not just in Washington DC for the domestic US politica…

The Wall Street year-ahead "outlook notes" are like the swallows returning to Capistrano ... next year will be a stock-picker’s market, and we shoul…

I thought Israel was the country with the Maginot Line – in the form of the Iron Dome missile defense system – and that the Phony War would resolv…