Narrative Machine Webinar Replay
A replay of the July 2021 Epsilon Theory webinar covering our latest narrative research and the release of our new ET Pro Monitors: the Consolidated D…
Category: In Summary
The Third Horseman
Will the politically-motivated slamming of Chinese ADRs pass? Sure. But that's small comfort if you're getting crushed in the meantime. Here's what I'…
The Narrative Machine v3.0
Today we're releasing the first research findings from the Narrative Machine 3.0, a process for measuring the patterns of individual linguistic compon…
The Fed Won the Narrative Battle in May
Have I changed my views about the reality of inflation? Nope.
But will that impact market world? Not until it shows up in the narrative, and I have n…
The Shift to Dovish
Coming into June, the dominant market narrative around central banks is a constructive what-me-worry attitude about inflation and the Fed’s ability …
Radiant: A Sneak Peek
We have been working on developing a platform for expanding our narrative monitors for almost a year now.
We are really excited to show it to you - …
Bitcoin! ™ Can’t Unring the ESG Bell
The head-on narrative collision between ESG and crypto, which has been building for months, finally happened.
It's the biggest threat that Wall Stree…
Bullish, Bearish, Expensive, Cheap
We believe that looking at momentum and trend-following in narrative-space through the lenses of Bullish, Bearish, Expensive, and Cheap gives a much s…
Wage Inflation Is Already Here
The investment question you hear constantly today is whether or not supply-driven inflation will eventually make its way into wage and price inflation…
The Martingale Market
The growing narrative resignation to a future hawkish Fed and a future tough road for high-flying, high-multiple stocks is a martingale ... it makes m…
Building a Short Book
I'm building a target list of individual companies where I want to do further research in developing a dedicated short or long-vol portfolio with high…
The Missing Wall of Worry
The hallmark of Information Theory is this: information is neither true nor false; it is only more or less powerful, with power defined by how much it…
Drawing the Narrative Battle Lines
The internal narrative consistency - cohesion in Narrative Machine-speak - changed dramatically in both our Central Bank and Security Analysis Methods…
Tiger King
There is a tide that is flowing out today, and it’s revealing Lex Greensill and Bill Hwang just as surely as it revealed Jeff Skilling in 2001 and B…
The Darnold Dilemma
I think Jay Powell and the Fed have locked themselves into a two to three year commitment to treating inflationary pressures as “transitory”, just…
Spidey-Sense
I think we are hitting an inflection point in a thirty-year globalization trade and a forty-year deflation trade at the same time that the Lex Greensi…
A Madoff Moment?
Is the collapse of Greensill Capital a Madoff Moment for the unicorn market? Honestly, if you had asked me a few weeks ago, I would have told you that…
Subprime is Contained
If you think that market-world fundamentally changed over the past week or two, you are absolutely correct. The market narrative has shifted significa…
The Opposite of 2008
I am increasingly thinking that both a Covid-recovery world AND a perma-Covid world are inflationary worlds, the former from a demand shock and the la…
We’re All Nigeria Now
For the past 20+ years, the real-world model for economists to understand unexpected deflation was Japan.
If the risk today is unexpected inflation, …