Category: In Summary

If the Fed cuts four times in 2024, it’s because we are having a nasty recession. If we don’t have a nasty recession, I don’t think the Fed cuts…

Every macroeconomic data release will be parsed and presented by Wall Street and the White House to pressure the Fed to lower the price of money. That…

Earlier this week, the BOJ ‘tweaked’ their YCC policies again, this time eliminating their hard commitment to buying unlimited amounts of 10-year …

I am increasingly convinced that it’s not only interest rates that have become unmoored in narrative-world, but also our banking system and our hous…

On Wednesday, October 11, the 30-year yield declined 13.8 bps (NY to NY last trade), its third biggest one-day decline in yields since November 2020. …

The narrative archetype "Supply and Demand" tm is typically trotted out to describe a market move that no one has a better answer for. It's not partic…

It’s important to recognize that a Big Trade is a long campaign made up of dozens of narrative battles and skirmishes. We won the first battle – a…

Why did the Fed slap down Mr. Market's expectations of massive rate cuts in 2024? Because the most important thing for the Fed is not to be right, bu…

In narrative-world, we have now redefined core CPI to not only exclude food and energy prices directly, but also indirectly. If airfares went up in-li…

The latest narrative development I’m seeing is that the US economy has “decoupled” from the other Big Three economies: China, Germany and Japan,…

Last week I wrote that the Big Idea (unmoored long-end of rates curve) had been discovered, which always means that the counter-narrative isn’t far …

Just in the past week, a new viral thread in narrative-world to support the 'unmoored long-dated rates' trade.

We're reconfiguring the entire ET Pro service to support our Big Idea for 2023: long-dated interest rates are coming unmoored, meaning that 10-year+ T…

Well, it’s been about three weeks since my “feel it in my bones” email describing why I think the next investable (+/- 7% or so) move in equity …

There is a constructed ebullience in the US economy right now, by which I mean that the usual narrative wall of worry that Wall Street uses to grind h…

Over the past 14 years, Quality, Value and Skill have been useless in professional asset management. They used to work. They don't work any longer. …

I feel like Clint Eastwood has said the line “a man’s got to know his limitations” or something similar in every movie he’s ever appeared in, …

It’s an interesting period of time in the world of professional investing right now, where everyone is going through the old motions and observing t…

This week we’ve got a new big note on AI, a new set of Narrative Monitors with several new signals triggered, and two new articles from the past wee…

Assuming that Treasury and the Fed have stopped the immediate, fast-motion bank run at First Republic and created a reasonable firewall (and I think t…