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Category: In Summary

When Does The Story Break?

Whether or not Blackstone and Starwood are successful in maintaining the Story of Adequate Liquidity and preserving their private REIT franchises thro…
Ben Hunt January 20, 2023
0 Comments

Big Shift in January Narrative Monitors

I expect Wall Street and financial media to trumpet the “soft landing” thesis pretty loudly over the next few weeks. Is this correct? Personally, …
Ben Hunt January 6, 2023
0 Comments

This Is the Business We Have Chosen

If you are responsible for Other People’s Money, you sever ties with your undercapitalized, overlevered broker before there’s a run on the bank. Y…
Ben Hunt December 21, 2022
0 Comments

Sam Bankman-Fried and the FTX/Alameda Fraud (ET Pro edition)

I believe quite strongly that Bankman-Fried should be questioned a) by professionals, b) under oath, and c) in a venue that allows for evidence to be …
Ben Hunt December 12, 2022
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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

A big change in our narrative monitors this month! Also, some shocking (to me, anyway) data on how good some companies are with their stock buybacks,…
Ben Hunt November 7, 2022
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Mortgage Markets and History’s Rhymes

In Q4 2007 – in the aftermath of the Bear Stearns MBS funds going out (June), the blow-up across most quant funds (August), and both autos and housi…
Ben Hunt October 21, 2022
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Statistics and Narrative Creation (Shelter Inflation ed.)

Everywhere you look today, you are seeing Wall Street and Washington missionaries using annualized month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter inflation …
Ben Hunt October 18, 2022
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Floating to the Surface

My rule of thumb is that it takes about two months for the dead bodies of institutional investment firms that have been drowned by some macro turn of …
Ben Hunt October 5, 2022
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Waiting for Godot

The math that drives 2023 dovish hopes on Wall Street and the White House is this: string 12 months of constant +0.2% month-over-month CPI readings to…
Ben Hunt September 21, 2022
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Lehman Moments, Tepper Moments, and German Economic Collapse

Could the German situation get worse? Of course it could. Have we had a “Lehman moment” yet? No, we have not. But I don’t think we are that far …
Ben Hunt August 23, 2022
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Hostage Situation

In times of profound informational need – like today when we *really* need to know if inflation is embedded in the real economy – we are desperate…
Ben Hunt August 9, 2022
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A Tale of Two Inversions

Multiple not-seen-in-a-quarter-century events have occurred over the past six weeks in rates-world. The lack of narrative attention is striking, as ar…
Ben Hunt July 27, 2022
0 Comments

One Narrative To Rule Them All

I believe that it is impossible in a robust, ie, non-financialized and non-levered macroeconomic world, for a nation’s people to be a lot richer tha…
Ben Hunt July 7, 2022
0 Comments

Weimar, War, and the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence

It feels weird to be rooting for a Volcker-esque recession and long bear market as the best potential outcome for where we are today. But there are wo…
Ben Hunt June 21, 2022
0 Comments

The Universe is Healing … or Going Nuts, Kinda Hard to Tell

We have two new narrative signals here in June, both Bullish in direction, which is a welcome change from the largely uniform Bearish signals of April…
Ben Hunt June 6, 2022
0 Comments

Seems Like Old Times

For a solid two years, call it early 2011 through early 2013, comparative euro-area gov't bond yields was the first chart I’d look at in the morning…
Ben Hunt May 25, 2022
0 Comments

But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™

If there’s one common knowledge narrative that I think can break over the coming months, it’s But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™.
Ben Hunt May 10, 2022
0 Comments

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

I’d like to tell you that our Narrative Monitors are not as bearish for May as they were for April. Yep, I'd really like to tell you that.
Ben Hunt May 5, 2022
0 Comments

We’re Entering a Deleveraging Cycle

The big global risk today is not that the banks are undercapitalized. No, the big global risk today is that banks are unwilling to provide long-term f…
Ben Hunt April 26, 2022
0 Comments

Aaaaand It’s Gone

The narrative puts and takes of March (and the resulting market rollercoaster) have coalesced into no puts and all takes. This is about as bearish a s…
Ben Hunt April 6, 2022
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