Category: In Summary

For a solid two years, call it early 2011 through early 2013, comparative euro-area gov't bond yields was the first chart I’d look at in the morning…

If there’s one common knowledge narrative that I think can break over the coming months, it’s But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™.

I’d like to tell you that our Narrative Monitors are not as bearish for May as they were for April. Yep, I'd really like to tell you that.

The big global risk today is not that the banks are undercapitalized. No, the big global risk today is that banks are unwilling to provide long-term f…

The narrative puts and takes of March (and the resulting market rollercoaster) have coalesced into no puts and all takes. This is about as bearish a s…

I personally thought what Powell said in his presser today was market-negative. But who cares what I think! What matters is how market participants ar…

In commodity markets, crypto markets, and equity markets ... we're all sardine traders now.

I don’t think the proposed Russia sanctions are likely to trigger a systemic financial crisis, and I think Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling is postu…

The structure of a market narrative isn’t as settled or as constructed as a Hollywood script, but it’s not too far off, either. We're in Act Thr…

I am a shortseller by nature and (former) profession. Like my favorite comic book character, Karnak the Inhuman, my superpower is to see the flaw in a…

You know who understands how inflation absolutely wrecks the popular support of any government? The Fed. You know who doesn’t get it? You know who …

Today Jay Powell had a press conference, where he had a very simple and well-delivered message: Inflation Is. Does this mean that we’re off to the …

Inflation as common knowledge gives pricing power to consumer-facing companies.

Is the narrative machine of Wall Street powerful enough to create a perceived reality of “transitory” inflation even if that transitory-ness is al…

If I had to describe our narrative models of market behavior as simply as possible, it would go something like this: markets climb a narrative wall of…

Robinhood has been managed to generate a payday for insiders. Then again, that’s how our entire world is being managed today. For a payday to insi…

This note isn’t about our common knowledge of central banks. It's about the common knowledge within the crowd of people who are engaged in the profe…

Our directional equity narrative signals have switched from bullish to bearish, and our equity trend narrative signals now point to a 0% allocation to…

Labor inefficiencies are so bad for FedEx that their return on invested capital (and FedEx has a LOT of capex) is, like, maayyybe greater than their w…

Is Evergrande a systemic risk? Is this China’s Lehman moment? I don’t know. Could be. But unless and until the market loses confidence in China�…