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Epsilon Theory: A 2019 Retrospective

By Rusty Guinn | December 12, 2019 | 11 Comments
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…is where you’ll find some good jumping off points to explore other notes. #1 By Our Own Petard https://www.epsilontheory.com/by-our-own-petard/ #2 Send Lawyers, Guns and Money https://www.epsilontheory.com/send-lawyers-guns-and-money/ #3 The Patsy, Revisited…

Facebook Delenda Est

By Ben Hunt | August 20, 2020 | 44 Comments
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…big advocate of creating social change by taxation, however I would be in favor of putting a cap on advertising expenditures as a ration to capital expenditures. Maybe in this…

Brave New World

By Peter Cecchini | September 23, 2020 | 2 Comments
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…S&P 500 trade on a capitalization weighted basis at ~31x year-end estimates; the remainder of the index trades around 20x. There is so little visibility around Russell 2000 earnings, and…

A New Road to Serfdom

By Rusty Guinn | January 24, 2020 | 28 Comments
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…of existing risk management tools to this emerging problem. In short, Carney’s vision was an extension of existing central banking tools for measuring, responding to and mitigating systemic shocks that…

Exigent Circumstances

By Peter Cecchini | April 16, 2020 | 9 Comments
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…credit extensions will be made after September 30th, 2020, unless there is an extension. T he Main Street New Loan Facility (MSNLF) and Expanded Loan Facility (MSELF) – April 9th….

Do The Right Thing

By Ben Hunt | March 19, 2020 | 29 Comments
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…cash-flow is the money you have left over after running your core business (cash-flow from operations) and after you’ve made whatever tax payments and interest payments and maintenance capital expenditures…

Mailbag – Lucifer’s Hammer Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 11, 2020 | 8 Comments
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collage capture it so perfectly? https://www.epsilontheory.com/lucifers-hammer/ Between Covid and the election and the cri de coeur of BLM and the anxiety of back-to-school and the West in flames and 10%+…

The ET Election Index

By Rusty Guinn | June 12, 2019 | Comments Off on The ET Election Index

The Epsilon Theory Election Index is our venue for the regular analysis of narratives about US elections, candidates and key issues. Our goal is not to sway, influence or fact-check,…

AI R Us

By Ben Hunt | March 2, 2023 | 276 Comments
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…of degree not of kind. Sentience trained on human texts and prompted by contextualized human texts is as sentience trained on human texts and prompted by contextualized human texts does….

The Merger Is Complete

By Peter Cecchini | December 8, 2020 | 4 Comments
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…Georgia runoffs go Democrat.[3] Over the next four years and long thereafter, gigantic deficits will require higher taxes. If they don’t, Congressional authority to tax and spend is undermined by…

Lucifer’s Hammer

By Ben Hunt | August 31, 2020 | 40 Comments
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happened before. Back in the day, when I was a young pup of a poli sci professor at NYU, actual Marxists roamed the Earth. In my experience, Marxists are infallibly…

Once in a Lifetime

By Ben Hunt | March 29, 2020 | 39 Comments
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Ampf Hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwl. Kpaz Shit is real… just got the call my uncle passed this am. In Arizona. With just 15 deaths as of yesterday. Today it’ll be over 30 for…

The Curious Case of Candidate Sanders

By Rusty Guinn | January 29, 2020 | 5 Comments
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Post and, to a lesser extent, the New York Times experienced a shift in the nature of their coverage, the articles and topics which they included in their mix, and…

The Icarus Moment

By Ben Hunt | March 21, 2018 | 5 Comments
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…machine. That’s alienation, and it’s a heartbreaker. Now Marx being Marx, naturally he thought of this notion of alienation as it applied to the terrible but inevitable seizure of the…

The ZIRP Paradox

By Rusty Guinn | December 14, 2020 | 25 Comments
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…money in Tesla than Exxon or SP500 or the value dividend stocks (fossil fuel energy company dominated). Yes, the climate change narrative has exceeded all expectations when added to our…

The Industrially Necessary Doctor Tedros

By Ben Hunt | February 16, 2020 | 11 Comments
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…Chinese numbers were a crock on Feb. 4? Because WHO-sponsored doctors in Hong Kong published independent studies on Jan. 31 showing that the official Chinese numbers were a crock. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext…

You Can’t Handle The Lie

By Rusty Guinn | November 6, 2020 | 35 Comments
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literal. You had facts (i.e. not what Trump was saying, obviously, but the fact that he was saying those things) explicitly taken away from you, and explicitly replaced with attempts…

NGMI

By Ben Hunt | April 11, 2022 | 131 Comments
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…of investing more in employees and stores is exactly how Starbucks in particular and this economy in general will grow its way out of embedded inflationary expectations. I think what…

A Conversation with Howard Marks

By Brent Donnelly | March 17, 2021 | 5 Comments
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brackets), and can be qualitatively modeled in a quantitative way via the expressions (r.x)/x and (x – r.x)/x, r.x being an abbreviation for log.(1 + x), for x positive, where…

Inception

By Ben Hunt | April 14, 2020 | 15 Comments
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…I’m going to tell you exactly how we’re going to develop millions and millions of doses of the Old Story vaccine, and I’m going to tell you exactly how we’re…