Epsilon Theory In Full

Epsilon Theory In Full

 

The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.

Proof of Plant: A New Vision for Crypto, Pt 1

By Ben Hunt | June 23, 2021 | 39 Comments

I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing. I do not mean this in a metaphorical sense. I mean a proof-of-plant method for literally growing cryptocurrency tokens as a representation of the value stored in the human cultivation of plants.

Headline Risk

By Rusty Guinn | June 22, 2021 | 5 Comments

The average American news consumer is exposed to far more headline text on news websites, social media apps and content aggregation sites than they are…

Cursed Knowledge #1: The Fast Saga

By Harper Hunt | June 21, 2021 | 11 Comments

The Fast and Furious movies are famous for intense action and ridiculous plots. But the truth about how these stories get made has more to do with the drama happening behind the camera than in front of it.

ET Podcast #11 – A Working Narrative

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2021 | 1 Comment

We write a LOT about work. And the responses we get are … weird.

Once again, the most important narratives are the ones we tell ourselves.

“Yay, Stock Buybacks!”

By Ben Hunt | June 15, 2021 | 5 Comments

I saw this work of art on Twitter today, referring to Dropbox management using stock buybacks to sterilize their outrageous stock-based comp, and it made…

Reinventing the Financial System

By Marc Rubinstein | June 15, 2021 | 4 Comments

If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.

“Yay, Environment!”

By Ben Hunt | June 10, 2021 | 15 Comments

In Epsilon Theory-speak, we use “Yay, Good-Thing!” as shorthand for a Narrative that takes a linguistic construction that we all agree is a Good Thing…

Fiat News in Action

By Ben Hunt | June 8, 2021 | 2 Comments

It wasn’t enough for ProPublica to do actual news reporting by publishing these tax records. The Secret IRS Files: Trove of Never-Before-Seen Records Reveal How…

A Working Narrative

By Rusty Guinn | June 7, 2021 | 12 Comments

The future of remote work after the pandemic ends has been a part of the zeitgeist for more than a year.

Now it IS the zeitgeist. It is also a narrative battlefield being actively conflated with a half dozen other major social and policy topics.

A Disturbance in the Force

By Ben Hunt | June 7, 2021 | 1 Comment

Yesterday, one of Softbank’s largest portfolio companies – Katerra – filed for bankruptcy. Katerra was at the heart of the relationship between Softbank and Greensill,…

ET Zeitgeist: Deadly Theatre

By Ben Hunt | June 4, 2021 | 1 Comment

What is Deadly Theatre?

It’s corporate logos for Pride Month. It’s speaking gigs for Deborah Birx. It’s the cover up for Leon Black.

#BITFD

Deadly Theatre

By Ben Hunt | June 4, 2021 | 1 Comment

The Deadly Theatre of corporate signaling on Pride Month continues to run rampant, with feel-good rebranding pop-ups in all the geographies where this is a…

Shot … Chaser

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2021 | 0 Comments

P&C insurer Lemonade (LMND) went public last year and now has a $5 billion market cap. They’re not just a sleepy insurance company, of course.…

Raccoonery in Action

By Ben Hunt | May 27, 2021 | 0 Comments

Honestly, I kinda like Chamath-the-CNBC-talking-head. He’s iconoclastic and smart. A little too much Ben Shapiro / college debate team-esque with the “if I talk really…

The Diversification Problem

By Ben Hunt | May 26, 2021 | 0 Comments

Good chart out from Barclays this morning showing the key problem for investors and financial advisors as inflation fears take root: bonds no longer provide…

Mortgage Mayhem

By Marc Rubinstein | May 18, 2021 | 5 Comments

Mortgages are pretty standard fare in the world of finance, but the American version is special: it grants its user a free option to refinance if they can get a cheaper rate elsewhere.

Every lender thinks they can thrive in this market. But every lender can’t be right.

Financing the American Home

By Marc Rubinstein | May 18, 2021 | 3 Comments

As a non-American there are many things I don’t understand about America.

Most of all though, I don’t understand the most American of products: the 30-year fixed-rate fully prepayable mortgage.

Wage Inflation Isn’t Coming. It’s Already Here.

By Ben Hunt | May 12, 2021 | 37 Comments

Over the past four quarters, the United States has generated more wage inflation than at any point over the past 40 years.

This is not an anomaly. This is not a single quarter aberration. A wage-price inflation cycle is here.

I’m not predicting. I’m observing.

I’m Trying To Understand Hedonic Adjustments

By Brent Donnelly | May 10, 2021 | 13 Comments

A Honda Accord cost $12,000 in 1990 and it costs $25,000 now.

A Mustang was $9,000 and now it’s $27,000.

The BLS has new car prices close to unchanged over the past 30 years.

ET contributor Brent Donnelly tries to wrap his brain around hedonic adjustments to CPI.

ET Podcast #10 – In Praise of Bitcoin

By Ben Hunt | May 5, 2021 | 0 Comments

Bitcoin has been subverted by the neutering machine of Wall Street and the regulatory panopticon of the US Treasury Dept.

What remains is a constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.