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Epsilon Theory In Full

Epsilon Theory In Full


The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.

Narrative Machine Webinar

By Harper Hunt | July 29, 2021 | 0 Comments

The recording of the July 2021, Epsilon Theory webinar about the Narrative Machine.

Low Demand, Low Supply, High Price Expectations

By Ben Hunt | July 28, 2021 | 0 Comments

From the ET Forum … So that’s where we are in our local real estate market – low demand, low supply, high price expectations – and my…

Cursed Knowledge #3: The Molassacre

By Harper Hunt | July 26, 2021 | 3 Comments

The Boston Molassacre was one of the great tragedies of the early 20th century. So why isn’t it treated like one?

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Ever Grande

By Marc Rubinstein | July 26, 2021 | 5 Comments

The Chinese real estate developer Evergrande is the epitome of Too Big To Fail. It is truly Ever Grande.

So what happens if it does, in fact, fail?

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Enemies Real and Imagined

By Rusty Guinn | July 21, 2021 | 10 Comments

I think there’s a non-zero chance that the delta-variant becomes something that markets really are focused on. Maybe that happens months from now. Maybe days.

But until that happens, the delta-variant narrative explaining markets is a wall of worry, an artificially easy hurdle to climb for a market that only really cares about a dovish Fed sticking to its transitory inflation story.

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Welcome to Metaworld

By Rusty Guinn | July 16, 2021 | 28 Comments

The language of practically every topic of any social importance is now defined by people discussing how other people are discussing it. It’s true for the environment, race, politics and now – violent crime.

Welcome to Metaworld.

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ET Podcast #12 – Proof of Plant

By Ben Hunt | July 16, 2021 | 0 Comments

I think this is how crypto can change the world. Not as “money” and not as Bitcoin! TM and not as a security and not as this speculative coin versus that speculative coin. Not by facilitating a market of goods, but by facilitating a market of GOOD.

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What is Robinhood?

By Marc Rubinstein | July 12, 2021 | 4 Comments

What is Robinhood? It’s the conflation of gambling and investing. Which is … fine. I guess. But spare me the “we’re democratizing finance” BS.

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Let Me Make the Songs

By Rusty Guinn | July 8, 2021 | 0 Comments

Epsilon Theory may have gotten its formal start in 2013, but the soft launch took place in 1991. That’s when my partner Ben finished his…

Cursed Knowledge #2: Weinstein and the Oscars

By Harper Hunt | July 5, 2021 | 0 Comments

Harvey Weinstein is a terrible person who did terrible things. But he doesn’t get nearly enough credit, or more accurately blame, for his role in destroying the integrity of the Academy Awards and fundamentally altering how Hollywood makes movies.

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The Political Autotuning of Inflation

By Ben Hunt | July 2, 2021 | 3 Comments

The politicization of inflation into a partisan “There Is No Inflation!” TM narrative by the nudgers and mandarins on the left is really depressing. The…

I’m So Tired of the Transitory Inflation “Debate”

By Ben Hunt | July 1, 2021 | 16 Comments

When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact.

They’re telling you how to think about a fact.

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Litigation Finance

By Bruce Packard | June 28, 2021 | 1 Comment

The formation of new “asset classes” and their associated narratives is a fascinating sight.

Using Burford Capital as a case study, new ET contributor Bruce Packard gives us a great primer on litigation-finance-as-an-asset-class.

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Day-One Advice for New Hedge Fund Portfolio Managers

By Brent Donnelly | June 25, 2021 | 5 Comments

Over the last 6 months, there’s been a mass influx of new hedge fund PMs, many from bank trading seats leaving for greener (?) pastures. I’ve been in both seats. I’ve had good years and disappointing years. So I present this advice with the utmost humility …

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Non-Verbal Narrative

By Rusty Guinn | June 23, 2021 | 1 Comment

We make it no secret that our research program here is all about using natural language processing to identify and measure narratives in the world.…

Proof of Plant: A New Vision for Crypto, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | June 23, 2021 | 35 Comments

I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing. I do not mean this in a metaphorical sense. I mean a proof-of-plant method for literally growing cryptocurrency tokens as a representation of the value stored in the human cultivation of plants.

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Headline Risk

By Rusty Guinn | June 22, 2021 | 5 Comments

The average American news consumer is exposed to far more headline text on news websites, social media apps and content aggregation sites than they are…

Cursed Knowledge #1: The Fast Saga

By Harper Hunt | June 21, 2021 | 11 Comments

The Fast and Furious movies are famous for intense action and ridiculous plots. But the truth about how these stories get made has more to do with the drama happening behind the camera than in front of it.

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ET Podcast #11 – A Working Narrative

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2021 | 1 Comment

We write a LOT about work. And the responses we get are … weird.

Once again, the most important narratives are the ones we tell ourselves.

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“Yay, Stock Buybacks!”

By Ben Hunt | June 15, 2021 | 3 Comments

I saw this work of art on Twitter today, referring to Dropbox management using stock buybacks to sterilize their outrageous stock-based comp, and it made…