It’s all been leading up to this.
We’re sharing the summary results of our core investment research project with the Narrative Machine.
If you’ve ever wondered, “Gosh, how DO you apply these cool narrative maps to an actual investment strategy?” … well, here’s your answer.
ET In Full
Jesse: And why’d you go and tell her I was selling you weed? Walt: Because somehow it seemed preferable to admitting that I cook crystal meth and killed a man. – “Breaking Bad” (2008) Meadow: Are you in the Mafia? Tony: Am I in the what? Meadow: Whatever you want to call it. Organized crime. …
Everything under heaven is in chaos; the situation is excellent. ― Mao Zedong (1893 – 1976) A quick email on China’s currency devaluation last night. The news itself is big enough, but it’s the Narrative that’s developing around the devaluation that has my risk antennae quivering like crazy. What do I mean? I mean that …
A quick Epsilon Theory email and a quick announcement. Announcement first. I’ll be giving a 1-hour webcast on Risk Premia strategies next Tuesday, August 4th, along with Salient President Jeremy Radcliffe and Salient Portfolio Manager Rob Croce, who knows more about the guts of these strategies than anyone should. The webcast qualifies for CE credit …
War is too important to be left to the generals. – Georges Clemenceau (1841 -1929) Competition has been shown to be useful up to a certain point and no further, but cooperation, which is the thing we must strive for today, begins where competition leaves off. … If we call the method regulation, people will …
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. – Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924) In 1914, Europe had arrived at a point in which every country except Germany was afraid of the present, and Germany was afraid of the future. – Sir Edward Grey (1862 – 1933) Last week’s email, …
Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right … and who is dead. – “The Princess Bride” (1987) Time is a game played beautifully by children. – Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 – 475 …
ET In Brief
There’s a point in any human activity – investing, politics, religion, or business – where a thing we do together becomes a thing in-itself. It’s a point that changes our thinking and the moral questions we are forced to answer. Knowing where this point lies is in all our activities is important.
Great Truths can be important engines for social unity and shared identity. In the hands of some, however, they can become tools for obscuring actual truth – facts – in service of cynical use of the emotional memes attached to those Truths.
We spend a lot of time on our trade ideas, and do a lot of hand-waving at what we believe that everyone else believes. It’s a core problem for investors, and one that can’t be avoided.
If Memorial Day is anything, it is a day for telling and re-telling stories about Full Hearts. Let me tell and re-tell you the story of Milton Lee Olive III.
I like to think that we do a good job responding to our readers’ questions. If we have a weak spot, however, I know where it is. It is the unerring target of the question we receive most often: “What books would you recommend?” It is a completely fair question to ask. Our work references …
New from ET contributor Demonetized … how do you handle a counterparty that has engineered a Heads I Win, Tails You Lose investment?
You must be able to hurt your counterparty for realz. No matter what the docs say.
Or in the immortal words of Steve Zissou, “What about my dynamite?”
Hyper-awareness of narrative, memes and cartoons can become paralyzing. Once we see them, we see them everywhere. But much of that paralysis comes because the demands of Clear Eyes are less than the demands of Full Hearts. And it’s the latter – identity – that truly matters.
We know what fiat news is: the presentation of opinion as fact. We also know what fiat news looks like: pop on over to Vox and skim a few stories.
But how does fiat news WORK?
New from ET contributor Demonetized, a clear-eyed look at wolf traps and sales funnels.
Disney is making a play to return to Neverland, a land where valuations are based on establishing market share and dominance of an emerging industry, where the moment you start worrying about how much money you’re making is the moment the narrative breaks. For students of markets and narratives alike, it will be worth watching.
The arrest of Julian Assange presents one of the most fascinating, explainer-laden, Fiat News-driven narrative maps we have seen. Tread carefully in taking what you read about this one at face value, friends.