It’s all been leading up to this.
We’re sharing the summary results of our core investment research project with the Narrative Machine.
If you’ve ever wondered, “Gosh, how DO you apply these cool narrative maps to an actual investment strategy?” … well, here’s your answer.
ET In Full
The Half-Happy Horror is the realization that pursuit of multiple objectives can end up with a baby split in two.
At best we give lip service to secondary or tertiary goals, all as part of some cartoon we’ve constructed about our “process”.
Yes, optimization is a scourge, and it hits every aspect of modern life. It hits the professional investor hardest of all.
The recent rally in U.S. equities is largely a result of market participants believing they can have their rate-cut cake and eat it, too.
ET contributor Pete Cecchini doesn’t think the Fed will cut rates proactively. Will they cut? Sure. But only if the real-world economic data deteriorates further. Which it probably will.
But don’t eat that cake just yet.
We are the human animal.
We are non-linear.
We ARE a song of ice and fire.
It’s a song that has built cathedrals and fed billions and taken us to the moon. It’s a song that can do all of that and more … far, far more … if only we remember the tune.
The Pack remembers.
Wage stagnation in 2016 was actually much worse than you were told. Did this make a difference in the Midwestern states that swung the election, in that actual labor conditions were worse than everyone thought they were? I think yes.
Wage growth in 2018 was actually much better than you were told. Did this make a difference in the current Fed/Wall Street/White House narrative that inflation is dead and the easy money punchbowl can be maintained without consequence? I think yes.
For a few days, we’re making this ET Professional note available to everyone to review. We think the ET Pro service is something that every portfolio allocation, wealth management and active investment team can find useful, particularly for risk management.
The student loan crisis is a Big Deal. And it is only a part of a Bigger Deal: the Myth of College.
This issue will be front-and-center in the upcoming elections. We will all be handed our very own ‘Yay, College’ signs to raise high. More often than not, we will be asked to raise them in service of market-distorting policies which will make our problems worse.
You don’t hate education, innovation, progress, equality and merit-based reward systems…do you?
ET contributor David Salem is back with five core tenets for achieving 5+% real returns over the next few decades.
It’s all a must-read, but I’m gonna highlight #4: “Favor equity investments in companies employing or serving primarily people with abundance as distinct from scarcity mindsets.”
This is the foundation for behavioral economics on a macro scale.
ET In Brief
The arrest of Julian Assange presents one of the most fascinating, explainer-laden, Fiat News-driven narrative maps we have seen. Tread carefully in taking what you read about this one at face value, friends.
The gravity of political polarization is real, and the mass which lies at the base of its well are narratives of existential risk.
When it comes to telling us how ‘the smart money’ and ‘the dumb money’ are playing it, there’s always someone who will tell us it’s Duck Season, and someone who will tell us it’s Rabbit Season. The reality is that it’s always Elmer Season. You and me? We’re Elmer in this cartoon.
An interesting question with a straightforward answer. Put simply, if a fund manager tells you they’re selling, ignore the reason they give and replace it with “Big founder wants liquidity.”
It’s the most valuable lesson I’ve got for any smart, young coyote embarking on a career in the Mob or in Wall Street: never ask for a cut on an existential trade idea.
Our Thing isn’t about the money. IT’S. ABOUT. THE. MONEY.
Except when it’s not.
ET contributor Demonetized takes a fresh look at the fable of the Ants and the Grasshopper. Or rather, it’s an Epsilon Theory look, with Clear Eyes and a Full Heart. Metastability, too.
We take a break from Fiat News to talk about the much simpler, much more straightforward ways that we are told how to think.
They’re not new, but in the widening gyre of our current political Zeitgeist, they are becoming the main attraction.
Helicopter parenting produces kids whose ability to evaluate and take risks has been crippled. If we’re not careful, helicopter parenting from policy-makers will do the same to us as investors.
One of the missionary’s most powerful tools is admiring the unsolvable problem – finding new ways of describing what’s wrong without an honest effort to actually fix it.
With apologies, add this to the list of things that you will now see everywhere.
Ben has already talked about the biggest and most important thing we can do in the face of the admissions bribery scandal.
But many remain convinced that this scandal is an inflection point, a change in the Zeitgeist. It isn’t. But that doesn’t mean we can’t be watching for our opportunity to weaken the influence of the Church of Credential.