Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.
How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.
Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.
Part 2 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper.
What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.
It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.
It’s easy to feel like we need more than hope to pass through troubling times, and it’s usually true. But sometimes hope is exactly what we need.
A stalking horse is a familiar shape that a hunter hides behind in order to get close to his prey. Once you start looking for them in markets, you will see them EVERYWHERE.
Using facts in your analysis doesn’t make your analysis a fact. Punchy language that leans on these ‘facts’ doesn’t often stand up to scrutiny.
Sometimes the absence of a clear central narrative can tell us something about a stock, too.
I can’t advise you on the Answers. I won’t advise you on the Answers. But I will advise you on the Process. Because that’s what we do for our fellow pack members.
The paradox of the Widening Gyre is that even when you’re right, you may be wrong.
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”
Vito got out. Michael never did.
Allocators and investors can learn a lot from professional baseball about how to structure incentives and compensation for portfolio managers. And how NOT to do it.
Enmity and competitive games can be beaten. Sometimes doing so requires someone willing to be booed by his home crowd.
In Part 4 of the Three-Body Alpha series, we explore how narrative may shape the tendencies of certain trend-following strategies – and how investors should respond. We also talk Tesla, if you’re into that sort of thing.
When reading news, especially financial news, be vigilant for strings of causality. Most financial events are extremely overdetermined.
We have built industry standards around minimizing the appearance of risk. As a result, we now have an epidemic of ability-signaling, when what we really need is humility.
Shifting common knowledge on Saudi Arabia has infected the narrative around SoftBank’s Vision Fund, which in turn places unicorn valuations at risk.
The mechanics of effective storytelling and the tells of Fiat News are very similar. Add knowledge of them to your news-reading arsenal.
Take it from a list of terrible pop songs (and one OK, if overrated song from the Doors): lessons that provide an answer instead of a process are usually lessons badly taught and badly learned.
Nobody likes to admit it, but the investment industry hires and invests with the smartest-seeming people that seem sufficiently likable. And it doesn’t work.
“Order should not have priority over freedom. But the affirmation of freedom should be elevated from a mood to a strategy.” Yes, please.
An historic night it was.A pleasure to have a private dinner with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, his royal family and distinguished cadre.A fun night and great to hear his deep rooted, yet modern views on the world and certainly the positive growth of his country.Thank you my friend Rupert Murdoch …
There is a huge gap in the narrative and language used to describe private equity and hedge funds. Even when it is correct, it calls for caution in our discussions and decision-making.
The Ben Sasse cartoon does not match the Ben Sasse life, and that’s a politically existential problem here in the widening gyre.