Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Politics

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2018 | 0
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Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.

How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Markets

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018 | 22

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They’re major market risks, but you’ll survive.

There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 1)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2018 | 7

Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

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Tony Soprano stares at you menacingly

Things Fall Apart (Part 2)

By Ben Hunt | September 4, 2018 | 0

Part 2 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper.

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Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 16

What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.

It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.

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Why Hope?

By Rusty Guinn | October 31, 2018 | 10 Comments
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It’s easy to feel like we need more than hope to pass through troubling times, and it’s usually true. But sometimes hope is exactly what we need.

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Stalking Horse

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2018 | 3 Comments
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A stalking horse is a familiar shape that a hunter hides behind in order to get close to his prey. Once you start looking for them in markets, you will see them EVERYWHERE.

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It’s Twue, it’s Twue!

By Rusty Guinn | October 30, 2018 | 7 Comments
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Using facts in your analysis doesn’t make your analysis a fact. Punchy language that leans on these ‘facts’ doesn’t often stand up to scrutiny.

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An Ocean of Indifference

By Rusty Guinn | October 29, 2018 | 2 Comments
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Sometimes the absence of a clear central narrative can tell us something about a stock, too.

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Oh, hell, Martha, go ahead and burn yourself if you want to.

By Ben Hunt | October 29, 2018 | 9 Comments
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I can’t advise you on the Answers. I won’t advise you on the Answers. But I will advise you on the Process. Because that’s what we do for our fellow pack members.

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Innocent Monsters

By Rusty Guinn | October 28, 2018 | 14 Comments
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The paradox of the Widening Gyre is that even when you’re right, you may be wrong.

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Getting Out: A Godfather Story

By Ben Hunt | October 27, 2018 | 11 Comments
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“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”

Vito got out. Michael never did.

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Notes from the Diamond #3: Everything Has Its Price

By David Salem | October 26, 2018 | 7 Comments
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Allocators and investors can learn a lot from professional baseball about how to structure incentives and compensation for portfolio managers. And how NOT to do it.

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Never Give Up Hope

By David Salem | October 24, 2018 | 16 Comments
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Enmity and competitive games can be beaten. Sometimes doing so requires someone willing to be booed by his home crowd.

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Figaro

By Rusty Guinn | October 23, 2018 | 5 Comments
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In Part 4 of the Three-Body Alpha series, we explore how narrative may shape the tendencies of certain trend-following strategies – and how investors should respond. We also talk Tesla, if you’re into that sort of thing.

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They ALL Came in Through the Bathroom Window

By Rusty Guinn | October 23, 2018 | 5 Comments
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When reading news, especially financial news, be vigilant for strings of causality. Most financial events are extremely overdetermined.

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O God, Make Me Humble

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2018 | 9 Comments
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We have built industry standards around minimizing the appearance of risk. As a result, we now have an epidemic of ability-signaling, when what we really need is humility.

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Funding Secured

By Ben Hunt | October 21, 2018 | 2 Comments
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Shifting common knowledge on Saudi Arabia has infected the narrative around SoftBank’s Vision Fund, which in turn places unicorn valuations at risk.

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The Tells of Fiat News

By Rusty Guinn | October 20, 2018 | 1 Comment
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The mechanics of effective storytelling and the tells of Fiat News are very similar. Add knowledge of them to your news-reading arsenal.

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The Grammar of Risk

By Rusty Guinn | October 19, 2018 | 4 Comments
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Take it from a list of terrible pop songs (and one OK, if overrated song from the Doors): lessons that provide an answer instead of a process are usually lessons badly taught and badly learned.

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Investment Diligence and the Cornelius Effect

By Rusty Guinn | October 18, 2018 | 6 Comments
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Nobody likes to admit it, but the investment industry hires and invests with the smartest-seeming people that seem sufficiently likable. And it doesn’t work.

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Putting the Real Back Into Realpolitik

By Ben Hunt | October 18, 2018 | 4 Comments
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“Order should not have priority over freedom. But the affirmation of freedom should be elevated from a mood to a strategy.” Yes, please.

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Saudi Arabia and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | October 16, 2018 | 25 Comments
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An historic night it was.A pleasure to have a private dinner with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, his royal family and distinguished cadre.A fun night and great to hear his deep rooted, yet modern views on the world and certainly the positive growth of his country.Thank you my friend Rupert Murdoch …

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Locusts’ Lament

By Rusty Guinn | October 15, 2018 | 4 Comments
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There is a huge gap in the narrative and language used to describe private equity and hedge funds. Even when it is correct, it calls for caution in our discussions and decision-making.

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Why Ben Sasse Loses the Game of You

By Ben Hunt | October 15, 2018 | 7 Comments
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The Ben Sasse cartoon does not match the Ben Sasse life, and that’s a politically existential problem here in the widening gyre.

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