Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Politics

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2018 | 0
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Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.

How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Markets

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018 | 22

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They’re major market risks, but you’ll survive.

There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 1)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2018 | 7

Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

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Tony Soprano stares at you menacingly

Things Fall Apart (Part 2)

By Ben Hunt | September 4, 2018 | 0

Part 2 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper.

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Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 16

What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.

It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.

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Dogs, Dog Food, and the Curse of Some Talent

By Ben Hunt | October 14, 2018 | 20 Comments
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The thing is, Butch, right now you got ability. But painful as it may be, ability don’t last. You came close but you never made it. And if you were gonna make it, you would have made it before now.

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We Were Soldiers Once … And Young

By Ben Hunt | October 13, 2018 | 36 Comments
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Two emails from soldiers, both asking questions that I can’t answer alone. We need a pack.

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When Good Words Go Bad

By Rusty Guinn | October 13, 2018 | 2 Comments
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Sometimes the meanings of words change. Sometimes that doesn’t mean anything. Sometimes it does.

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Why Am I Reading This NOW? 10/12/2018 Edition

By Rusty Guinn | October 12, 2018 | 0 Comments
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A brief selection of stories from my daily news routine that made me wonder: “Why am I reading this now?”

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Complacency and Concern in Robo-Land

By Rusty Guinn | October 11, 2018 | 3 Comments
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When it comes to robo-advisors, there is a wide gulf between common knowledge within the industry and without. I’m not sure what that means yet, but it means something.

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The Narrative Giveth and The Narrative Taketh Away

By Ben Hunt | October 11, 2018 | 1 Comment
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The growing strength and coherence of Narrative Machine visualizations show the creation of powerful common knowledge around inflation, where everyone knows that everyone knows that inflation is rearing its very ugly head.

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Notes from the Diamond #2: Until the Truth Comes Out

By David Salem | October 11, 2018 | 2 Comments
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Part 2 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.

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Gell-Mann Amnesia

By Ben Hunt | October 10, 2018 | 2 Comments
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Westworld (1973) “Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is …

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Et in Arcadia ego

By Rusty Guinn | October 10, 2018 | 1 Comment
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Your time horizon is not infinite. Your institution’s time horizon is not infinite.

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Punting and the Tyranny of Risk Memes

By Rusty Guinn | October 9, 2018 | 0 Comments
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The purpose of meme and narrative is getting us to sit down and shut up. In the investment committee room, no kind of meme does this more effectively – and more counterproductively, than the risk meme.

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How to Lose the Game of You

By Ben Hunt | October 9, 2018 | 3 Comments
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Your autonomy of mind and spirit cannot be taken away by the State, the Oligarchy or the Mob. But you can give it away. Don’t.

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The Italian Job

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments
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il Giornale (August 3, 2012) I wrote “Finest Worksong” in September, 2014 (reprinted below). Here’s the money quote:  At some point in the not so distant future there will be an anti-Euro realigning election in Italy. And that will wake the Red King. And here’s the money chart that is driving all of this.  Source: Bloomberg …

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Mailbag: Deadly. Holy. Rough. Immediate.

By Rusty Guinn | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments
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Responding to a reader query about the relationship between risk and return, and whether its theoretical foundation is still solid.

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The Red King Is Us

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments
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A cat may look on a king, ye know! — Proverbs and Epigrams of John Heywood (1562) Ben’s note: I wrote The Red King in July of 2014.  Then and now, there is only one question that matters for what happens in Europe – does Mario Draghi postpone the inevitable day of reckoning over the politically …

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Why Am I Reading This NOW?

By Ben Hunt | October 7, 2018 | 3 Comments
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Hieronymus Bosch, “The Conjurer” (between 1496 – 1520) On October 4, 2018, Bloomberg BusinessWeek published a story claiming that Chinese hackers were able to “infiltrate America’s top companies” by planting a spy microchip “not much bigger than a grain of rice” on the motherboards of Supermicro servers. The word “attack” is used 30 times in …

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Surprisingly Geometric

By Rusty Guinn | October 7, 2018 | 0 Comments
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Whenever something is surprisingly geometric, it’s probably a good idea to take a step back and ask why. And even when we find some supporting truths, it’s a good idea to keep asking.

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The Power of ‘AND’, and the Walmartization of Advice

By Rusty Guinn | October 6, 2018 | 5 Comments
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Behold, the Walmartization of Advice. It will lead to better outcomes for many investors. AND it will lead to worse outcomes for some.

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We are Second Foundation Partners

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | Comments Off on We are Second Foundation Partners

Epsilon Theory began in the spring of 2013 as a series of emails I wrote to myself and a few colleagues, trying to make sense of markets that didn’t make much sense. I decided to post a few of those emails online, and I cobbled together what I grandiosely called a Manifesto, proposing a new …

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From Thugs to Douche Bros: the Evolution of the Surveillance State

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 0 Comments
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The Russians managed their surveillance state with banal thugs. We’re building our own surveillance state in America and throughout the West, managed not by thugs but by our own version of banal evil – the douche bro.

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A Game of You

By Ben Hunt | September 30, 2018 | 1 Comment
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We’ve reached a new height (depth, really) of what I call “mirror engagement” on social media. If you don’t see yourself in the Missionary you follow, you get mad. How dare you not reflect my views!

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