Featured Notes

Modern Monetary Theory or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt

By Ben Hunt | January 17, 2019 | 11

Modern Monetary Theory is neither modern nor a theory. It’s a post hoc rationalization of politically expedient policy that makes us feel better about all the bad stuff we’ve done with money and debt in service to Team Elite.

And all the bad stuff we’re going to do in the future.

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You Are Here

By Ben Hunt | January 11, 2019 | 27

The greatest risk to your portfolio is a change in the zeitgeist. A change from deflation to inflation. A change from cooperative international games to competitive games. A change from capital markets to political utilities.

I think it’s all happening.

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The Road to Tannu Tuva, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | December 19, 2018 | 5

When our processes of inquiry lack challenge, doubt and obsession with falsifying our best ideas, the result is inevitable. Our conclusions cease to be science and become something else entirely. That something else is a thing sensitive to narrative, vulnerable to priors and bias. That something else is scientism.

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We’re Doing It Wrong

By Ben Hunt | December 4, 2018 | 5

The market is not a clockwork machine, even though we all think it is. No, the market is a bonfire.

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Even When I Lie

By Rusty Guinn | November 28, 2018 | 28

The way I see it, there are three reasons a person becomes a liar: he believes that he must, he believes that he may, or he believes it serves a Greater Truth.

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Notes from the Diamond #5: Wannabes Beware

By David Salem | December 16, 2018 | 1

Imitation is not only the sincerest form of flattery, it’s also the engine behind so much of what we do in both professional baseball and professional investing. The trick, of course, is not to get beaned in the process!

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Most Recent Notes

What Gang Aft Agley

By Rusty Guinn | January 19, 2019 | 0 Comments
Posted:

We asset owners and allocators (rightfully) obsess about alignment, but too often that obsession becomes an outward one, motivated by our rights and entitlements instead of our ultimate best interest.

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The Zeitgeist | 1.18.2019

By Rusty Guinn | January 18, 2019 | 0 Comments
Posted:

Today it’s Morgan Stanley, the price of rice, Morgan Stanley, the art of AI and a bit more Morgan Stanley.

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Modern Monetary Theory or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt

By Ben Hunt | January 17, 2019 | 11 Comments
Posted:

Modern Monetary Theory is neither modern nor a theory. It’s a post hoc rationalization of politically expedient policy that makes us feel better about all the bad stuff we’ve done with money and debt in service to Team Elite.

And all the bad stuff we’re going to do in the future.

Read more

The Zeitgeist | 1.17.2019

By Rusty Guinn | January 17, 2019 | 3 Comments
Posted:

The Zeitgeist for January 17th: China, ‘no inflation’, advice from Bogle, and another day, another cannabis headline.

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ET Live – 1.15.2019

By Rusty Guinn | January 15, 2019 | 3 Comments
Posted:

ET Live! is now in the books for January, but you can catch the replay here.

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Navigating the Discovery Map

By Rusty Guinn | January 14, 2019 | 2 Comments
Posted:

At the suggestion of one of our friends and subscribers, we wanted to provide what we think are some of the best launch points for exploration of the newly published Discovery Map. The only question: do you want to explore topics in depth or see the connections between them?

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Shikaka!

By Rusty Guinn | January 12, 2019 | 8 Comments
Posted:

In this news cycle, if an issue sticks around for more than a week, you can be sure that it isn’t by accident. It’s because it represents an abstraction, and because those in influence like how that abstraction changes our behavior.

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The Alembic

By Rusty Guinn | January 10, 2019 | 2 Comments
Posted:

Distillation isn’t a process of concentration. It isn’t a natural progression. It is a violent changing of the underlying thing. So, too, is portfolio construction.

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Run, Run, Pass

By Rusty Guinn | January 8, 2019 | 8 Comments
Posted:

It’s easy to convince ourselves that the opposite of being narrative-driven is being data-driven. This is a lie. The most common way that narrative influences our behavior is through unadorned data, presented with the unstated implication that it is necessary, sufficient and explanatory.

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Rabbit Hole: Mathematical Toys, Moral Injuries, and Odes to the Hack

By Neville Crawley | January 8, 2019 | 0 Comments
Posted: ,

Neville’s favorite links from recent months, including an interview with a collector of mathematical toys and an ode to the hack.

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We Are All Epsilon Theorists Now

By Ben Hunt | January 6, 2019 | 18 Comments
Posted:

I found this photo from Friday’s presser, when Jay Powell was asked to describe how much credibility he has now.

JK. But also, LOL.

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A Game of Them

By Rusty Guinn | January 4, 2019 | 9 Comments
Posted:

When it comes to politics and social media, making up straw men about our enemies to make them look ridiculous seems like good entertainment. But beware embracing amusing-but-wrong cartoons in zero sum games.

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Epsilon Theory Discovery Map as of December 31, 2018

By Rusty Guinn | January 3, 2019 | 2 Comments
Posted:

Introducing the Epsilon Theory Discovery Map – a novel way to navigate the Epsilon Theory archives, not based on chronology or author, but based on connectivity, similarity and consistency in the underlying narratives.

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Let Us Now Praise Famous Men

By Ben Hunt | January 2, 2019 | 7 Comments
Posted:

We are living in a Golden Age of corporate management competence, driven by the adoption of process technologies and minimax regret strategies. That’s not going to stop in 2019, and it has major implications for your portfolio strategy.

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Audacity

By Rusty Guinn | January 1, 2019 | 1 Comment
Posted:

Some resolution season advice for young professionals who would become successful professional investors without becoming charlatans – a task easier said than done.

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Looking for Laffer-Likes

By Rusty Guinn | December 31, 2018 | 4 Comments
Posted:

Complex systems and uncertainty influence us to look for something – anything – to hang our hat on. The problem? We’re prone to hang our hats on extrapolations of the rare facts we can find, many of which have no explanatory power at the margin, where markets live and breathe.

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Building the Narrative Machine

By Neville Crawley | December 31, 2018 | 0 Comments
Posted:

Is it early days with the development of the Narrative Machine? Yes.

But not as early as you might think.

Eight crucial insights on how to incorporate Narrative data into an understanding of markets.

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Rock, Paper, Scissors

By Ben Hunt | December 27, 2018 | 5 Comments
Posted:

We’ve been doing it wrong with AI for too long. Time to do it right.

We can’t SOLVE for the future of complex social systems like markets or politics with algorithms. But we can CALCULATE the future of these systems with AI.

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Lord Make Me Chaste … But Not Yet

By Ben Hunt | December 24, 2018 | 9 Comments
Posted:

The problem for markets today is not the Fed.

The problem for markets today is the guy in the White House and his game of Chicken with the world.

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The Prediction Polka

By Rusty Guinn | December 20, 2018 | 6 Comments
Posted:

We would usually tell you that all information is information. There is no good or bad. No right or wrong. But some things aren’t even information. Knowing what you can ignore is worthwhile.

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