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Tag: Called It

The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX

The MacGuffin is the object of desire. It is the thing around which the plot of the story revolves. Here is the story arc of SBF and FTX, and the M…
Ben Hunt November 18, 2022
51 Comments

Monetary Policy is Non-Linear

The relationship between interest rates and inflation is non-linear and non-monotonic, and in exactly the same way that the Fed was unable to spur inf…
Ben Hunt September 22, 2022
137 Comments

Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much f…
Ben Hunt July 9, 2022
93 Comments

Getting to War

The international "negotiations" over Ukraine are 100% designed for domestic Russian consumption. They are as necessary a part of successfully invadin…
Ben Hunt January 28, 2022
46 Comments

Enemies Real and Imagined

I think there's a non-zero chance that the delta-variant becomes something that markets really are focused on. Maybe that happens months from now. May…
Rusty Guinn July 21, 2021
11 Comments

I’m So Tired of the Transitory Inflation “Debate”

When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they're not telling you a fact. They're telling you how to think about a fact.
Ben Hunt July 1, 2021
16 Comments

A Working Narrative

The future of remote work after the pandemic ends has been a part of the zeitgeist for more than a year. Now it IS the zeitgeist. It is also a narra…
Rusty Guinn June 7, 2021
12 Comments

In Praise of Bitcoin

What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington r…
Ben Hunt April 28, 2021
62 Comments
Image of Wormwood, the father and slick car salesman from Matilda

Manheim Steamroller

When we talk about and plan for inflation in our businesses and portfolios, we are usually focused on direction and magnitude. We also usually abstrac…
Rusty Guinn April 26, 2021
16 Comments

The Third Rail Switch

In the same way that narrative shaped a conversation about the role of police going forward in 2020, narrative can shape a conversation about the role…
Rusty Guinn February 23, 2021
21 Comments

Hunger Games

You have been told that the odds are ever in your favor. You have been told this for your entire life. More and more, you suspect this is a lie. You …
Ben Hunt February 4, 2021
31 Comments

The Ireland Event

I believe there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 30-45 days, wher…
Ben Hunt January 12, 2021
26 Comments

Reap the Whirlwind

There is a brief window where I think we have the opportunity to commit to building a common national identity together. Seizing this opportunity will…
Rusty Guinn January 11, 2021
50 Comments

Taiwan is now Arrakis

"He who controls the spice controls the universe." The world's principal supplier of semiconductors - the spice of OUR global empire - is now Taiwan. …
Ben Hunt July 27, 2020
37 Comments

Too Connected to Fail

We have written that one of the major social changes occurring at present is the transformation of capital markets into public utilities. The COVID-…
Rusty Guinn May 4, 2020
13 Comments

First the People

This is not a chronicle of errors and mistakes made during COVID-19. This is the story about the inevitable, simultaneous failure of each of the ins…
Rusty Guinn April 14, 2020
74 Comments

Lack of Imagination

The structurally bullish will warn us against failure of nerve. The traders will warn us against hesitation. The structurally bearish will warn us abo…
Rusty Guinn March 14, 2020
27 Comments

Body Count

China is fighting nCov2019 exactly like the US fought North Vietnam ... with policy driven more by narrative control than by what's best to win the wa…
Ben Hunt February 10, 2020
24 Comments

A Song of Ice and Fire

We are the human animal. We are non-linear. We ARE a song of ice and fire. It’s a song that has built cathedrals and fed billions and taken us to…
Ben Hunt May 27, 2019
13 Comments

Things Fall Apart (Part 3)

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They're major market risks, but you'll survive. There's a Fourth …
Ben Hunt October 24, 2018
23 Comments
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