The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX
The MacGuffin is the object of desire.
It is the thing around which the plot of the story revolves.
Here is the story arc of SBF and FTX, and the M…
Tag: Called It
Monetary Policy is Non-Linear
The relationship between interest rates and inflation is non-linear and non-monotonic, and in exactly the same way that the Fed was unable to spur inf…
Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World
Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much f…
Getting to War
The international "negotiations" over Ukraine are 100% designed for domestic Russian consumption. They are as necessary a part of successfully invadin…
Enemies Real and Imagined
I think there's a non-zero chance that the delta-variant becomes something that markets really are focused on. Maybe that happens months from now. May…
I’m So Tired of the Transitory Inflation “Debate”
When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they're not telling you a fact.
They're telling you how to think about a fact.
A Working Narrative
The future of remote work after the pandemic ends has been a part of the zeitgeist for more than a year.
Now it IS the zeitgeist. It is also a narra…
In Praise of Bitcoin
What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington r…
Manheim Steamroller
When we talk about and plan for inflation in our businesses and portfolios, we are usually focused on direction and magnitude. We also usually abstrac…
The Third Rail Switch
In the same way that narrative shaped a conversation about the role of police going forward in 2020, narrative can shape a conversation about the role…
Hunger Games
You have been told that the odds are ever in your favor. You have been told this for your entire life. More and more, you suspect this is a lie.
You …
The Ireland Event
I believe there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 30-45 days, wher…
Reap the Whirlwind
There is a brief window where I think we have the opportunity to commit to building a common national identity together. Seizing this opportunity will…
Taiwan is now Arrakis
"He who controls the spice controls the universe."
The world's principal supplier of semiconductors - the spice of OUR global empire - is now Taiwan.
…
Too Connected to Fail
We have written that one of the major social changes occurring at present is the transformation of capital markets into public utilities.
The COVID-…
First the People
This is not a chronicle of errors and mistakes made during COVID-19.
This is the story about the inevitable, simultaneous failure of each of the ins…
Lack of Imagination
The structurally bullish will warn us against failure of nerve. The traders will warn us against hesitation. The structurally bearish will warn us abo…
Body Count
China is fighting nCov2019 exactly like the US fought North Vietnam ... with policy driven more by narrative control than by what's best to win the wa…
A Song of Ice and Fire
We are the human animal.
We are non-linear.
We ARE a song of ice and fire.
It’s a song that has built cathedrals and fed billions and taken us to…
Things Fall Apart (Part 3)
The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They're major market risks, but you'll survive.
There's a Fourth …