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Manheim Steamroller


Matilda Worst Used Car Salesmen Harry Wormwood

I’m fed up with all this reading! You’re a Wormwood, you start acting like one! Now sit up and look at the TV.

Matilda (1996)

A couple weekends ago I visited a car dealership to buy a new car.

Like most people, I look forward to this as much as I look forward to, say, going to the dentist or watching the Oscars. And like most people, I suspect you look forward to hearing someone complain about a car dealership experience about as much as you look forward to reading a rant about a bad airline experience.

Don’t worry – this is not that kind of story. But it is an unusual story.

I went to buy a car for a very ordinary reason. My wife is 8 months pregnant with our third child. Since my pickup truck can’t really accommodate three car seats, it was the obvious choice to take one for the team. So it is that I am now officially “regularly googling Korean-made three-row SUVs” years old.

Now, the whole car-buying experience is something I have more familiarity with than I’d like, having previously served in a professional capacity setting sub-prime auto loan pricing for one of the largest non-captive lenders in the space. Buy Rate shenanigans in the finance manager’s office, the economics of trade-ins, the loss severity impact of repossessed collateral – all of this garbage lives in the career-only skills section of my brain, next to dynamic named ranges, Black-Scholes formula components, state regulatory requirements for investment advisers and banking confidential information memorandum templates. In probably 90% of my life, I operate with barely enough knowledge to be dangerous. Lamentably, the world of purchasing an automobile is part of the other 10% where I have real knowledge – even if it is decidedly cursed knowledge.

All this, and still I left without a car. Which is not very interesting.

What IS interesting is why I left without a car. It wasn’t because of lack of inventory or credit availability or too much “cargo net and window tint” lagniappe or some guy pushing the undercoating option like he was $1,000 away from topping the monthly sales leader board. It wasn’t even because they wouldn’t honor the deal their internet sales manager had agreed to before I walked in the door.

It was because they couldn’t.


You have probably heard or read that used car prices are up this year.

You may not know how much used car prices have risen. For a variety of reasons (e.g. rental car company activity, some pent-up consumer demand, and yes, semi-conductor supply constraints), used vehicle values have skyrocketed since the early 2020 COVID trough. Manheim, Cox Automotive’s wholesale auction and consulting platform, publishes an index of these values.

Source: Manheim Consulting

As it happens, some auto segments are experiencing this pricing pressure more acutely than others. These are, to put it bluntly, extraordinary times for this particular good.

Source: Manheim Consulting

When yours truly rolled into a dealership with a detailed late model Toyota pickup with fewer than 15,000 miles on it for trade, it was already higher-than-average value collateral. Add to that the general price pressure on used vehicles and the particular spike in pickup prices, and you had an odd situation: wholesale, private sale and trade comps at other dealers were telling them that the vehicle I brought in was worth such a high percentage of a new version of the same auto that it broke their model.

The used car guy knew what the trade was ‘worth’, in the commoditized sense of what it had been getting at wholesale and the sky-high prices other area dealers were asking for at retail. But when you’ve spent 30 years taking trades with an expectation of netting a couple grand turning it around and now you’re being asked to price terrifyingly close to new inventory to approach that margin, you can start to see why he would balk. Consider as well that there is no certainty about how long this pricing pressure will last, and the risk that the dealership won’t be able to turn over its high-priced used car inventory in time starts to loom very large.

I could have accepted a lower value, of course, but all it took was one other dealership who was willing to bet on their ability to continue to pass through record, unprecedented used car pricing.

OK, interesting anecdote, but what’s the bigger story here?

Common knowledge among investors, allocators and business operators nearly always frames the proper response to inflation in terms of price direction. We want to know which assets will win if prices begin a steady rise upward, or if prices of a particular good, commodity or service are likely to spike. We want to know which businesses have pricing power, which can pass on input and labor costs without loss of demand.

And those are all good questions.

What that narrative misses, however, is the importance of sensitivity to price volatility in a path-dependent world. If you think that what’s happening in auto supply/demand and pricing is generally good for auto dealerships and the related industry infrastructure, you are probably right. But there will also be leveraged dealerships who participate heavily in inventory acquisition at prices and quantities that they can’t turn over before the pricing environment flips back. There will also be winners who figure out how to accommodate and navigate higher used price expectations in trades for new vehicles.

So it will be for every asset class, industry and business being identified as a ‘beneficiary’ of an inflationary regime or a ‘transitory inflationary spike’ in our ongoing collective dialogue. Even within a space likely to benefit from the direction of prices, expect the volatility of prices to transform some assets into steamrollers – and some into the steamrolled.

If there’s one thing I feel confident telling you simply because it is nearly always true, there are going to be a lot of investors and business owners who get the inflation trade 100% right. They will nail the timing, duration, direction and causes, whatever those things end up looking like. And for all that rightness, they won’t make a dime from it.

I think this will be a big reason why.

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Comments

  1. Looking forward to seeing how the BLS will twist these shockingly high increases in car prices into a 1-2% impact on the CPI reports

  2. Rusty, I feel your pain. We looked for 4 months for a vehicle – ANY vehicle: car, SUV, truck, whatever. Only through the grace of Midwestern small-towns and dumb luck did we manage to find something suitable at an decent price. An experience I would wish only on a few, specific worst enemies.

  3. I think the last calc had a 8-9% change in this category, but at the weighting it gets it didn’t do a fraction of that.

  4. Absolutely, Steve! Although I’d already resigned myself to paying pretty close to sticker, TBH. But the $5,000 gap between what two dealerships were willing to offer on a pretty basic pickup was the really wild part.

  5. It seems like the perfect time to sell your car in a private transaction…

  6. From my Twitter feed this morning, and yes base effects are at play. But still.

    SentimenTrader has a good stat on inflation. For the first time since 1971, over half of commodities within a broad commodity basket have registered gains of over 50% YoY

  7. Congrats Rusty!

  8. I must just be an absolute sociopath because I love shopping for a new car. I’m already tormenting my poor family with my discussions of the new Mustang Mach E and I don’t need to look for a car for another six months.

  9. My friend that is general manager/minority owner in a Chevrolet dealership in Houston said he thought inventory of new and used would be better by now, getting to a critical point where he will not be able to deliver on current demand if things don’t improve pretty quickly. He ordered a bunch of Chevrolet volt’s to fill spaces on the lot, thought that might be a good transition. He needs to sell 6 per month to breakeven, has sold 2 in April. He has said time and time again for about 2 years, he just cannot compete with publicly traded companies like Carvana’s for used cars because he can’t lose money and they can.

    It’s embarrassing in 2021 to admit this, but I listened to the last earnings conference call for Carvana, Vroom, and AutoNation. I know, I know, don’t laugh at me for being a dinosaur and listening to a conference call. :-) The themes on all 3 calls were pretty much the same: tight inventory, higher prices at auction and trade-in, and demand durability related to stimulus. They all also said, they expected higher prices for some time in the future and would manage their way through it. I swear the guy from Carvana could take Powell’s place, he said everything but the word…TRANSITORY.

    There is this wildcard theme that keeps getting mentioned, analyst keep asking about “talks” with all the new car companies/brands i.e. Canoo, Lucid, Fisker, etc and if there are distribution agreements coming? It’s the biggest load of crap, but it’s just enough of a prospect to keep up with bizarro land valuations in 2021. 

  10. CME will start offering Used Car Futures based on the Manheim Index so used car dealers can hedge their inventory. It will be cash settled, no physical delivery.

  11. One begins to wonder the level of social unrest from this chicanery that is going on in the inflation numbers. Working people’s wages are lagging far behind and at some point somethings going to break.

  12. Direct quote from First solar CEO on conference call this afternoon after they beat EPS by $1, but guided EPS for the year inline…

    “Facing near-term cost challenges” “number of projects not going to happen.” “Aluminum going up copper going up” 

  13. My career-only section has a lot of that same information, especially when it comes to auto loans, how dealers finance new inventory, etc. I walked into a car dealer a month ago, to buy 2 cars – wife’s car finally died after being parked for covid and my car, a newer 3-row SUV, was the trade. I know how the game works, I still let them rake me over the coals. The price of the wife not getting her first new car in 10 years, was greater than overpaying a $1,000.

  14. I am looking at the Mustang Mach E as well and preordered the VW ID4 just in case. Have you looked at both by any chance?

  15. Avatar for jrs jrs says:

    My lesson from the “broke the model” part is that these people were less certain than they should be about the value of your pickup.

    I am too young to have lived through the 70s. But my understanding from people who write about inflation, mostly John T Reed and his citations, is that a major reason inflation/hyperinflation becomes annoying/deadly is that everyone gets lost in a kind of economic fog and can’t figure out a good price for anything any more.

    True?

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