Epsilon Theory Professional

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In the Flow – Real World vs. Market World

December 30, 2018

For the first time in weeks, the recessionary fearfest narrative is now declining, not growing. And that means Treasuries will have a really hard time working, no matter what happens in equities.

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In the Flow – Sometimes the Answer to a Prayer is “No”

December 24, 2018

All of the heartfelt prayers to the Fed gods went unanswered last week. Or rather, the answer was “No.” And without a Fed backstop to US-China negotiations (where the narrative continues to worsen), we are immersed in technical uncertainty.

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In the Flow – Beating the Recession Drums

December 16, 2018

The Street is beating the recession narrative drums, culminating in Friday’s sharp sell-off in US markets. But there’s a chance for Powell to save the day, by shifting the Fed narrative to provide a market backstop to US-China trade disputes.

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In Focus

ET In Focus reports are narrower analyses of the narrative structure and trends on specific issues, companies, sectors, countries or financial markets.

A Tale of Two Tales (Banking)

January 13, 2019

US Banks have a common narrative structure – two competing topics of vastly different sentiment, with one dominating market attention at any given time. Worthy of some thought going into bank earnings week.

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Multiple Ways to Lose (AAPL)

January 3, 2019

We examine how Apple found both of the ways to lose on narrative in less than two months’ time, and outline how that might change the playbook for the near-, medium- and long-term for different investor types.

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Twilight of the (Consumer) Goods?

December 20, 2018

With increasing attention to trade and tariff narratives and falling attention to inflation and growth narratives in the U.S., we believe that investors may benefit from focus on sectors on which the latter narratives have weighed heavily in 2018. Of particular interest? Brand-oriented consumer stocks, especially many staples that have been left for dead.

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In The News

ET In the News delivers ET Professional subscribers weekly summaries of the news articles most critical to the narrative surrounding companies reporting on earnings, major economic and central bank reports, etc.

In the News | Week of 1.21.2019

January 20, 2019

Another big earnings week across banks, insurance, energy services, staples, transports and other industrials.

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In The News | Week of 1.14.2019

January 13, 2019

A busier than usual week, as first quarter earnings season kicks off for banks and airlines. A few other notables in tech and energy, as well.

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In the News | Week of 1.7.2019

January 5, 2019

Three reporting companies this week. The most-connected articles include an odd weed obsession among media and analysts, and a…rather unfortunate Delta experience.

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