Epsilon Theory Professional
In The Flow
More than ever I can hear the approaching hoofbeats of the Fourth Horseman – a regime change in inflation expectations. The hooves are still distant, and you’ll have more bites at the portfolio-preparation apple as global growth concerns in China and Europe persist. But prepare you should.
Soros’s Reflexivity is another name for the Common Knowledge Game, just focused on price action narratives. We see the development of just such a price action narrative today in macro world, one that surely makes Trader George’s ears prick up.
In the big picture, we’re still in the middle of a technically uncertain game of Chicken between the U.S. and China. But Powell’s VERY public about-face on Friday, coupled with the VERY strong jobs report, creates a VERY different investment backdrop for the US-China trade impasse.
Narrative Monitors
ET Pro Inflation Monitor
We track the prevalence and attention of inflation topics in financial and broadly circulated news sources, including their attachment to narratives around financial markets.
Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor
We track the prevalence and attention of credibility attached by a wide variety of news sources to central banks and their influence on participants in financial markets.
Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET Trade and Tariffs Monitor
We track the attention paid to and sentiment of a various trade and tariff-related topics in a range of news sources, especially with respect to their attachment to financial market narratives.
Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET US Fiscal Policy Monitor
We track the strength and consistency of narratives about US fiscal policy, including budgets, tax policy and debt.
Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.
ET Credit Cycle Monitor
We track the strength of narratives about the credit cycle in general, plus lending, liquidity and other trends in credit markets.
Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.
In Focus
ET In Focus reports are single-issue topical analyses. They cover investment and portfolio construction topics, issues relating to the businesses of investment management and wealth management, and narrow analyses of the narrative structure and trends on specific issues, companies, sectors, countries or financial markets.
In this ET Pro In Focus note, we explore the narrative structure of ESG and SRI investing. Our question: is it finally part of the Zeitgeist, or a trend that will continue to come and go?
For fund managers and asset management executives, the fundraising question is often the most important and most inscrutable. Understanding how narratives and career risk factors interact with decision-making processes is critically important.
We introduce a new narrative measure and then put major global equity markets under the narrative microscope in Q1 2019.