Epsilon Theory In Brief
Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.
As Monty Python would say … and now for something completely different.
It’s JPow fanfic day here at Epsilon Theory! Or “every day” as they refer to it on Wall Street.
Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…
It may seem ironic that a Narrative about the long-term could be deployed to distort the rewards of effective, market-based long-term capital allocation for short-term benefit.
This is, I think, the heart of The ZIRP Paradox:
The myth of infinite horizon investing is the enemy of long-term investing.
So an agent for a new over-the-top variety act finally gets a meeting with the biggest producer in the world. I mean, maybe ‘the world’ is selling it short. Word on the street is this guy’s even got God’s ear, if you can believe it.
In this kick-off Epsilon Theory webcast, I’m joined by renowned cryptocurrency miner and trader @notsofast for a wide-ranging conversation on Bitcoin and crypto. Here’s the core topic:
Can Bitcoin preserve its revolutionary potential after a Wall Street bear hug?
I’m highly skeptical, but @notsofast has some ideas on how to make this work.
The merger between the Treasury and Fed is now complete with Janet Yellen’s apparent appointment as the Secretary of the Treasury. Let the self-fulfilling market narratives begin!
These are The Ghosts of Wall Street Commentary Future. And if their chains are not already clanking around in your inbox, they will be very, very soon.
COVID-19 is endemic, and its mutations will likely be part of our lives going forward.
But there is another disease this virus has caused, and it is a disease of the mind. It is the endemic mindset. And we can eradicate it.
Today.
There’s a moment when the real world peeks through the narratives that surround us, and we convince ourselves that this will be the truth that frees our fellow citizens/investors/neighbors from their delusions.
But truth is only one of the necessary conditions for this kind of change. The other?
Mercy.
Three weeks ago, I didn’t see a narrative path for Trump to win a turnout-based election hinging on four or five swing states.
Today I do.
It’s the same funny feeling I got in 2016, but with a twist.
Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…
The corruption of media by missionaries means that we now live in a world of two sets of facts. It is a world which gives us two choices: to champion our truth, or to work toward eliminating the world-of-two facts structure.
To hell with OR. Let’s choose both.
Sometimes a grift isn’t in what you say, but in the difference in what you say to different audiences.
It’s not the information. It’s the meta information.
It is a literal golden age for CEOs whose talent is the creation and propagation of narratives.
Why? Because it works. And it works because we have accepted a financial and business media that has been redesigned into a cheering section.
This is a short-form summary of our long-form note The Projection Racket (Part 2), located here. While it attempts to present the most accurate picture…
Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…
It may be a brave new world of Davey Day Trader, but it’s not enough to convince yours truly to drink Huxley’s soma. Or the Fed’s SOMA (System Open Market Account).
I’m not saying that we all have to become volatility traders to survive in the market jungle today, any more than we all have to become game theorists to avoid being the sucker at the Fed’s communication policy table.
But if you’re a traditional investor whose sandbox includes big markets like the S&P 500, then you’re only disadvantaging yourself by ignoring this stuff.
We don’t need more minimally viable products.
We need more maximally viable organizations attacking big problems with a tinkerer’s mindset and a capitalist’s goals.
Guest post by Luis Perez-Breva, faculty director at MIT Innovation Teams.
In a world awash with cheesing, being lawful good doesn’t mean being lawful stupid.
But for God’s sake, don’t lose your soul in the process.