Epsilon Theory In Brief

Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.


Common Knowledge or Fortune?

By Rusty Guinn | December 14, 2018 | 5 Comments

Common knowledge effects, credentialing and missionaries are everywhere. You may differ in your view of their importance, but if your framework doesn’t acknowledge their role in price-setting, you’re not seeing the full picture.

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In the Trenches: Bridge Out?

By Peter Cecchini | December 13, 2018 | 0 Comments

ET contributor Pete Cecchini, better known as Cantor Fitzgerald’s Chief Market Strategist, is back with the December installment of his series, In the Trenches. For ET readers who want a less philosophical but no less smart take on markets, Pete’s your guy.

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Basically a Snake Don’t Have Parts

By Rusty Guinn | December 12, 2018 | 0 Comments

No matter how much you try to make mama tell you what part of the snake you’re eating, and no matter how much the answer might comfort you, it’s important to know that neither you nor she is telling the truth.

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Introduction to ET Professional

By Rusty Guinn | December 11, 2018 | Comments Off on Introduction to ET Professional

We are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Professional, or ET Pro. It is a service designed to leverage our narrative research more directly for investors and asset owners. Learn more about the types of content and research we’re doing here.

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You Don’t Have to Dance Every Dance

By Ben Hunt | December 11, 2018 | 3 Comments

Discretionary investment always and in all ways boils down to two things: edge and odds. In the US-China trade war game of Chicken, you have no edge. And you don’t know the odds. Time to sit this dance out.

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ET Live @ 2PM ET 12.11.2018

By Rusty Guinn | December 10, 2018 | Comments Off on ET Live @ 2PM ET 12.11.2018

We will be live at 2PM on Tuesday, December 11, 2018. Click here to get more information about ET Live, how to subscribe and how to get your questions in for the day.

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The ET Interviews: Banking the Unbankable

By Neville Crawley | December 10, 2018 | 0 Comments

It’s possible to do good AND to do well. ET’s Neville Crawley interviews Lev Plaves, Senior Investment Manager at Kiva, on banking the unbankable – refugees and internally displaced populations.

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

By Ben Hunt | December 7, 2018 | 5 Comments

Sometimes the dog that doesn’t bark gives as loud a warning as the dog that does. That was true for Sherlock Holmes, and it’s true for investors, too.

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The People are Revolting

By Rusty Guinn | December 5, 2018 | 10 Comments

Just because something is true doesn’t mean that it can’t also be transformed into a meme. That is, in fact, the usual outcome when an idea encounters resistance. But this isn’t a path to truth.

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We’re Doing It Wrong

By Ben Hunt | December 4, 2018 | 5 Comments

The market is not a clockwork machine, even though we all think it is. No, the market is a bonfire.

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Inside the Skinner Box

By Rusty Guinn | December 3, 2018 | 8 Comments

If you want to learn how you will be nudged in the future, look to the same places: Vegas and Video Games.

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The ET Interviews: Anti-Authoritarian Technology

By Neville Crawley | December 3, 2018 | 2 Comments

Fresh thoughts on the intersection of technology, freedom and decentralization.
ET’s Neville Crawley interviews Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer for the Human Rights Foundation (HRF).

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Pics or It Didn’t Happen

By Ben Hunt | December 1, 2018 | 10 Comments

What will it take to Burn The Oligarchy Down? Pics of a certain sort. Which is why “doctored” will be 2019’s Word of the Year.

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Fiat News Index – November 2018

By Rusty Guinn | December 1, 2018 | 6 Comments

In our November 2018 update to the Fiat News Index, we review some topics that media outlets are even happier than usual to tell us how to think about.

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Burn. It. Down.

By Ben Hunt | November 28, 2018 | 18 Comments

It’s almost as if there’s a ruling class.

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Take Back Your Thinking

By Neville Crawley | November 26, 2018 | 7 Comments

In the Common Knowledge World, we lose the ability to distinguish between what we think and what we think we think. It’s Fiat Thought, and here’s how you beat it.

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Deals Are My Art Form

By Rusty Guinn | November 26, 2018 | 2 Comments

The emphasis of asset owners on private assets investments is meta-stable – robust to a lot of potential changes in market environment. The reason? The deals! meme.

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American Gods

By Ben Hunt | November 25, 2018 | 11 Comments

Every idea has a story, but the story is not the idea. Stories are born, they live, and they die. But if the idea is powerful enough, it can find a new story and be reborn. Crypto must find a new story.

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What’s Your Metagame? An Open Letter to the Crypto Community

By Ben Hunt | November 23, 2018 | 21 Comments

It’s an invitation to explore a joint research program, as described in TFA3. It’s an invitation to share ideas on liberty, resistance and technological advancement. It’s NOT an invitation to share ideas about money.

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By Rusty Guinn | November 22, 2018 | 10 Comments

To our readers, to our supporters, to our engaged commenters, and to the people who have compared Epsilon Theory to drinking paint, a word: thanks.

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