Epsilon Theory In Brief

Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.


Putting the Real Back Into Realpolitik

By Ben Hunt | October 18, 2018 | 0 Comments

“Order should not have priority over freedom. But the affirmation of freedom should be elevated from a mood to a strategy.” Yes, please.

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Saudi Arabia and the Common Knowledge Game

By Ben Hunt | October 16, 2018 | 8 Comments

An historic night it was.A pleasure to have a private dinner with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, his royal family and distinguished cadre.A fun night and great to hear his deep rooted, yet modern views on the world and certainly the positive growth of his country.Thank you my friend Rupert Murdoch …

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Locusts’ Lament

By Rusty Guinn | October 15, 2018 | 3 Comments

There is a huge gap in the narrative and language used to describe private equity and hedge funds. Even when it is correct, it calls for caution in our discussions and decision-making.

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Why Ben Sasse Loses the Game of You

By Ben Hunt | October 15, 2018 | 7 Comments

The Ben Sasse cartoon does not match the Ben Sasse life, and that’s a politically existential problem here in the widening gyre.

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Dogs, Dog Food, and the Curse of Some Talent

By Ben Hunt | October 14, 2018 | 14 Comments

The thing is, Butch, right now you got ability. But painful as it may be, ability don’t last. You came close but you never made it. And if you were gonna make it, you would have made it before now.

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We Were Soldiers Once … And Young

By Ben Hunt | October 13, 2018 | 27 Comments

Two emails from soldiers, both asking questions that I can’t answer alone. We need a pack.

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When Good Words Go Bad

By Rusty Guinn | October 13, 2018 | 2 Comments

Sometimes the meanings of words change. Sometimes that doesn’t mean anything. Sometimes it does.

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Why Am I Reading This NOW? 10/12/2018 Edition

By Rusty Guinn | October 12, 2018 | 0 Comments

A brief selection of stories from my daily news routine that made me wonder: “Why am I reading this now?”

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Complacency and Concern in Robo-Land

By Rusty Guinn | October 11, 2018 | 3 Comments

When it comes to robo-advisors, there is a wide gulf between common knowledge within the industry and without. I’m not sure what that means yet, but it means something.

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The Narrative Giveth and The Narrative Taketh Away

By Ben Hunt | October 11, 2018 | 1 Comment

The growing strength and coherence of Narrative Machine visualizations show the creation of powerful common knowledge around inflation, where everyone knows that everyone knows that inflation is rearing its very ugly head.

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Gell-Mann Amnesia

By Ben Hunt | October 10, 2018 | 2 Comments

Westworld (1973) “Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is …

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Et in Arcadia ego

By Rusty Guinn | October 10, 2018 | 1 Comment

Your time horizon is not infinite. Your institution’s time horizon is not infinite.

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Punting and the Tyranny of Risk Memes

By Rusty Guinn | October 9, 2018 | 0 Comments

The purpose of meme and narrative is getting us to sit down and shut up. In the investment committee room, no kind of meme does this more effectively – and more counterproductively, than the risk meme.

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How to Lose the Game of You

By Ben Hunt | October 9, 2018 | 3 Comments

Your autonomy of mind and spirit cannot be taken away by the State, the Oligarchy or the Mob. But you can give it away. Don’t.

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The Italian Job

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments

il Giornale (August 3, 2012) I wrote “Finest Worksong” in September, 2014 (reprinted below). Here’s the money quote:  At some point in the not so distant future there will be an anti-Euro realigning election in Italy. And that will wake the Red King. And here’s the money chart that is driving all of this.  Source: Bloomberg …

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Mailbag: Deadly. Holy. Rough. Immediate.

By Rusty Guinn | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments

Responding to a reader query about the relationship between risk and return, and whether its theoretical foundation is still solid.

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The Red King Is Us

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2018 | 0 Comments

A cat may look on a king, ye know! — Proverbs and Epigrams of John Heywood (1562) Ben’s note: I wrote The Red King in July of 2014.  Then and now, there is only one question that matters for what happens in Europe – does Mario Draghi postpone the inevitable day of reckoning over the politically …

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Why Am I Reading This NOW?

By Ben Hunt | October 7, 2018 | 3 Comments

Hieronymus Bosch, “The Conjurer” (between 1496 – 1520) On October 4, 2018, Bloomberg BusinessWeek published a story claiming that Chinese hackers were able to “infiltrate America’s top companies” by planting a spy microchip “not much bigger than a grain of rice” on the motherboards of Supermicro servers. The word “attack” is used 30 times in …

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Surprisingly Geometric

By Rusty Guinn | October 7, 2018 | 0 Comments

Whenever something is surprisingly geometric, it’s probably a good idea to take a step back and ask why. And even when we find some supporting truths, it’s a good idea to keep asking.

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The Power of ‘AND’, and the Walmartization of Advice

By Rusty Guinn | October 6, 2018 | 5 Comments

Behold, the Walmartization of Advice. It will lead to better outcomes for many investors. AND it will lead to worse outcomes for some.

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