Epsilon Theory In Brief

 

Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.

The End of the Beginning

By Demonetized | May 20, 2020 | 6 Comments

ET contributor Demonetized is back, grappling with some investment themes here at the end of the beginning.

The skinny: deep value is at best a tactical trade. At best.

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No Free Lunches

By Peter Cecchini | May 19, 2020 | 4 Comments

ET Contributor Pete Cecchini looks at the monetary and fiscal policy stimulus coming out of Washington and sees a staggering price to pay in lost real growth and massive institutional corruption.

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Too Connected to Fail

By Rusty Guinn | May 4, 2020 | 11 Comments

We have written that one of the major social changes occurring at present is the transformation of capital markets into public utilities.

The COVID-19 pandemic and policy response have accelerated that transformation. It is now the water in which we swim.

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One for the Road

By Rusty Guinn | April 18, 2020 | 5 Comments

There was no greater sin between 2009 and 2020 than enduring a ‘constant drag on returns’. This is the meme of Yay, Efficiency!, and it permeates every layer of our economy and markets.

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Exigent Circumstances

By Peter Cecchini | April 16, 2020 | 9 Comments

ET contributor Peter Cecchini makes a strong case that the Fed is playing a dangerous game with its constant use of the “exigent circumstances” exception to Section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act.

Does the alphabet soup of new facilities and SPVs established by the Fed in recent weeks amount to an illegal taking of assets? It’s a reasonable question.

Even more reasonable: if not here, where do you draw the line?

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Frenemies

By Peter Cecchini | April 7, 2020 | 9 Comments

The oil narrative is not as it seems.

The White House and others assume the Saudis and Russians are at odds. Don’t be so sure. Their interests are aligned around disabling U.S. production. Period.

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Our Finest Hour

By Ben Hunt | April 2, 2020 | 15 Comments

There is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States. And I know you won’t believe me, but I tell you it is true:

This will be #OurFinestHour.

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Until Further Notice

By Rusty Guinn | March 31, 2020 | 10 Comments

We have been asked to discuss our views about the CARES Act. In order to facilitate future such requests, we have provided what we hope to be a helpful rubric.

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When the Story Bends

By Rusty Guinn | March 24, 2020 | 10 Comments

Saying that “America needs to reopen for business” isn’t the same thing as doing what we need to reopen America for business. Words matter, but actions matter more.

Let’s do the right things. Now.

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Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders

By Ben Hunt | March 23, 2020 | 3 Comments

This is our personal effort to help identify *need*, *sources*, and *money* for personal protective equipment distributions to healthcare workers and first responders.

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The Non-Linearity of Need, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | March 19, 2020 | 14 Comments

Let’s make this Our Finest Hour. From the bottom up.

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Our Escape Story

By Rusty Guinn | March 18, 2020 | 10 Comments

When people stop asking “How much worse is this going to get” and start asking “How much longer is this going to last”, things really start changing.

But we can change that, too.

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Margin Call

By Rusty Guinn | March 16, 2020 | 7 Comments

Levering up a portfolio based on a model that we know cannot act as a representation of the state of the world is perilous.

Doing the same with a country is far, far worse.

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The Non-Linearity of Need

By Rusty Guinn | March 9, 2020 | 12 Comments

In a potential recession, need isn’t evenly distributed. In a pandemic, that’s even more true. The time to start helping is now.

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Don’t Test, Don’t Tell (10 Days Later)

By Ben Hunt | March 8, 2020 | 10 Comments

Originally published in Quillette, it’s the Epsilon Theory take on Don’t Test, Don’t Tell” – the single most incompetent, corrupt public health policy of my lifetime.

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Join Us. No, Really.

By Rusty Guinn | February 25, 2020 | Comments Off on Join Us. No, Really.

Second Foundation Partners is looking for a new member of the team to help us spearhead the development of technologies for narrative analysis.

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Thanksgiving

By Rusty Guinn | February 19, 2020 | Comments Off on Thanksgiving

A moment to say thanks and accept responsibility.

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The Inevitable Afterbirth

By Rusty Guinn | February 4, 2020 | 9 Comments

Two weeks ago we were being told about the coronavirus outbreak. This week we are being told how we should think about it. Right or wrong, it is important to have clear eyes about this kind of fiat news.

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Notes from the Diamond #9: How About Never

By David Salem | February 3, 2020 | 4 Comments

Axioms to live by in baseball and in investing!

1) Outsiders to an organization can never know in real time what goes on inside it.

2) Human labors can never be gauged fully and dispositively in real time.

3) Chains are never stronger than their weakest links.

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The Drum Major Instinct

By Rusty Guinn | January 20, 2020 | 11 Comments

On MLK, Jr. Day, we present an excerpt from a powerful and under-read sermon about status delivered to the Ebenezer Baptist Church.

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