Epsilon Theory In Brief


Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.

When the Story Bends

By Rusty Guinn | March 24, 2020 | 8 Comments

Saying that “America needs to reopen for business” isn’t the same thing as doing what we need to reopen America for business. Words matter, but actions matter more.

Let’s do the right things. Now.

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Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders

By Ben Hunt | March 23, 2020 | 2 Comments

This is our personal effort to help identify *need*, *sources*, and *money* for personal protective equipment distributions to healthcare workers and first responders.

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The Non-Linearity of Need, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | March 19, 2020 | 14 Comments

Let’s make this Our Finest Hour. From the bottom up.

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Our Escape Story

By Rusty Guinn | March 18, 2020 | 10 Comments

When people stop asking “How much worse is this going to get” and start asking “How much longer is this going to last”, things really start changing.

But we can change that, too.

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Margin Call

By Rusty Guinn | March 16, 2020 | 7 Comments

Levering up a portfolio based on a model that we know cannot act as a representation of the state of the world is perilous.

Doing the same with a country is far, far worse.

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The Non-Linearity of Need

By Rusty Guinn | March 9, 2020 | 12 Comments

In a potential recession, need isn’t evenly distributed. In a pandemic, that’s even more true. The time to start helping is now.

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Don’t Test, Don’t Tell (10 Days Later)

By Ben Hunt | March 8, 2020 | 10 Comments

Originally published in Quillette, it’s the Epsilon Theory take on Don’t Test, Don’t Tell” – the single most incompetent, corrupt public health policy of my lifetime.

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Join Us. No, Really.

By Rusty Guinn | February 25, 2020 | Comments Off on Join Us. No, Really.

Second Foundation Partners is looking for a new member of the team to help us spearhead the development of technologies for narrative analysis.

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By Rusty Guinn | February 19, 2020 | Comments Off on Thanksgiving

A moment to say thanks and accept responsibility.

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The Inevitable Afterbirth

By Rusty Guinn | February 4, 2020 | 9 Comments

Two weeks ago we were being told about the coronavirus outbreak. This week we are being told how we should think about it. Right or wrong, it is important to have clear eyes about this kind of fiat news.

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Notes from the Diamond #9: How About Never

By David Salem | February 3, 2020 | 4 Comments

Axioms to live by in baseball and in investing!

1) Outsiders to an organization can never know in real time what goes on inside it.

2) Human labors can never be gauged fully and dispositively in real time.

3) Chains are never stronger than their weakest links.

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The Drum Major Instinct

By Rusty Guinn | January 20, 2020 | 11 Comments

On MLK, Jr. Day, we present an excerpt from a powerful and under-read sermon about status delivered to the Ebenezer Baptist Church.

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That Which We Call a Law School

By Rusty Guinn | January 16, 2020 | 13 Comments

More from the world of universities-as-guilds and the weird war between the merely rich and ultra-rich.

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An Experiment

By Rusty Guinn | January 6, 2020 | 83 Comments

There is a chart I’ve been thinking about a lot lately, and I want to tell you about it. Before I do, I also wanted to show it to you, along with a simple request: Tell me what you think that it is. Put it in the comments if you’re a subscriber. If you’re not, …

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Mailbag: By Our Own Petard

By Rusty Guinn | December 7, 2019 | 2 Comments

We’ve gotten a lot of responses and thoughts on By Our Own Petard, so we thought we would talk about some of them in another Mailbag feature.

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Hyakujos Fox

By Demonetized | December 3, 2019 | 2 Comments

ET contributor Demonetized creates his own koan in this very personal note.

Is morality socially constructed through a process where biological systems are socially conditioned to respond in particular ways to particular stimuli, or is morality an innate moral compass manifested in Kantian ethics?


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A Cycle of Addiction

By Peter Cecchini | November 26, 2019 | 4 Comments

Negative rates create a cycle of addiction to even more negative rates in the future.

Why? Because captive buyers like pension funds require capital appreciation to make up for negative yield, so central banks must guarantee a commitment to still more negative yields.

New from ET contributor Pete Cecchini!

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Guest Post – A Conservative’s Take on The Pack

By Ben Hunt | October 23, 2019 | 17 Comments

Every now and then we come across an article or blog post that’s directly relevant to what we’re trying to say on Epsilon Theory, but is too big and thoughtful to be carved up for a Mailbag note or Zeitgeist post.

Make / Protect / Teach is a Big Tent.

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The Stereogram

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2019 | 9 Comments

The NBA, Blizzard and others are in hot water after kowtowing to the Chinese government. America will have forgotten about both within weeks. But the awareness of just how long the CCP’s reach has become? That can’t be unseen.

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On The Great Jihad And Other Possible Futures

By Demonetized | September 26, 2019 | 9 Comments

ET contributor Demonetized channels his inner Paul Atreides to look at possible market futures – The Great Jihad, The Great Reset, and The Zombiefication of Everything.

Because at its core, “Dune” is all about narrative.

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