All Epsilon Theory Content


Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory including our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. Plus, short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes.

My Passion is Puppetry

By Ben Hunt | April 6, 2016 | 0 Comments

Campaign Company Launch Date “Flo” Progressive Insurance 2008 “Rhetorical Question” “Happier Than A … ” “Did You Know?” “It’s What You Do” GEICO 2009 2012 2013 2014 “Mayhem” Allstate 2010 “University of Farmers” Farmers Insurance 2010 “Magic Jingle” State Farm 2011 2011 “That’s Not How It Works” Esurance 2014 “Chicken Parm You Taste So Good” …

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There for the Right Reasons

By Ben Hunt | March 29, 2016 | 0 Comments

A quick follow-up to “Hobson’s Choice”, the most widely-read note in the Epsilon Theory canon to date (thank you!). First, I’ll be hosting a one hour webinar on Thursday March 31, where I’ll present the note and take questions. You can register for the webinar here (for compliance reasons, it’s limited to investment professionals and …

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Hobson’s Choice

By Ben Hunt | March 16, 2016 | 0 Comments

If you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation. – Don Draper, Mad Men: “Love Among the Ruins” (2009) It is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally. – John Maynard Keynes, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” (1936) Bobby: What do you mean you don’t make side orders …

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The Narrative Fix Is In

By Ben Hunt | March 11, 2016 | 0 Comments

A quick email to Epsilon Theory readers on what’s happening in Europe, because we’ve seen this movie before. On August 2, 2012 Mario Draghi gave the most disastrous ECB press conference of all time. The market anticipation was enormous leading up to the event, as this was the moment where the ECB would unveil the …

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Welcome to the Jungle

By Ben Hunt | March 1, 2016 | 0 Comments

Zero-sum, Elliot. You’re playing a game you already lost. You know I’m right. – “Mr. Robot” (2015) You can have anything you want  But you better not take it from me – Guns N’ Roses, “Welcome to the Jungle” (1987) I’m not expecting it. I’m observing it. – George Soros, January 22, 2016 To do …

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The Silver Age of the Central Banker

By Ben Hunt | February 19, 2016 | 0 Comments

We all sing along But the notes are wrong – Matt & Kim, “Get It” (2015) The strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must. – Thucydides, “History of the Peloponnesian War” (c. 400 BC) Xerxes: Come Leonidas, let us reason together. It would be a regrettable waste. It would be …

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By Ben Hunt | February 9, 2016 | 0 Comments

As longtime Epsilon Theory readers know, I’m a big comic book fan. One of the joys of a comic done well is the effective representation of a dynamic multi-dimensional narrative within a static two-dimensional art form. As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, but occasionally so is a sound. Or rather, …

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Rewardless Risk

By Ben Hunt | February 1, 2016 | 0 Comments

Faramir: Then farewell! But if I should return, think better of me. Denethor: That depends on the manner of your return. – J.R.R. Tolkien “The Lord of the Rings” (1954) I’m going full-nerd with the “Lord of the Rings” introduction to today’s Epsilon Theory note, but I think this scene — where Denethor, the mad …

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You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight

By Ben Hunt | January 14, 2016 | 0 Comments

Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that? Lance: What? Kilgore: Napalm, son.  Nothing else in the world smells like that. – Apocalypse Now (1979) Hello, hello, hello, how low? [x3] – Nirvana, Smells Like Teen Spirit (1991) Outside the bus the smell of sulfur hit Bond with sickening force.  It was a horrible smell, from somewhere down in the stomach of …

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The China Narrative That Really Matters

By Ben Hunt | January 7, 2016 | 0 Comments

I’m a China bull, let’s get that out of the way first. But like anything connected with the global industrial and commodity complex today, from Emerging Markets to MLPs to oil prices, it doesn’t matter what the Truth with a capital T might be regarding the real world economic or business fundamentals. The story is …

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Epsilon Theory State of the Union

By Ben Hunt | December 30, 2015 | 0 Comments

For the last six months I’ve been trying to figure out how to incorporate reader correspondence into Epsilon Theory. We’ve reached a point of both reader quantity (well more than 60,000 active email subscribers here at year end, >5x where we started the year) and reader quality (I’d put the sheer firepower of ET subscribers …

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Storm Warning

By Ben Hunt | December 14, 2015 | 0 Comments

Unfortunately for mariners, the total amount of wave energy in a storm does not rise linearly with wind speed, but to its fourth power. The seas generated by a forty-knot wind aren’t twice as violent as those from a twenty-knot wind, they are seventeen times as violent. A ship’s crew watching the anemometer climb even …

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I Know It Was You, Fredo

By Ben Hunt | December 8, 2015 | 0 Comments

Sen. Geary: Hey, Freddie, where did you find this place? Fredo Corleone: Johnny Ola told me about this place. He brought me here. I didn’t believe it, but seeing’s believing, huh? Old man Roth would never come here, but Johnny knows these places like the back of his hand. – “The Godfather, Part II” (1974) …

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Two Discoveries

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2015 | 0 Comments

The world made two discoveries last week. Everyone is aware of the first discovery – that ISIS is not “a junior varsity team” but an able protagonist in what Pope Francis quite rightly calls “a piecemeal third World War”. Very few are aware of the second discovery – the existence of a polynomial-time algorithm to …

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The Andromeda Strain

By Ben Hunt | November 12, 2015 | 0 Comments

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong …

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Funny How?

By Ben Hunt | October 28, 2015 | 0 Comments

Henry Hill: You’re a pistol, you’re really funny. You’re really funny. Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I’m funny? Henry Hill: It’s funny, you know. It’s a good story. It’s funny. You’re a funny guy. [laughs] Tommy DeVito: What do you mean? You mean the way I talk? What? Henry Hill: It’s just, you know. …

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By Ben Hunt | September 30, 2015 | 1 Comment

Mike McDermott: In “Confessions of a Winning Poker Player,” Jack King said, “Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.” It seems true to me, cause walking in here, I can hardly remember how I built …

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One MILLION Dollars

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2015 | 0 Comments

Dr. Evil: Gentlemen, it has come to my attention that a breakaway Russian Republic called Kreplachistan will be transferring a nuclear warhead to the United Nations in a few days. Here’s the plan. We get the warhead and we hold the world ransom for…one MILLION dollars! Number Two: Don’t you think we should ask for …

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Season of the Glitch

By Ben Hunt | September 3, 2015 | 0 Comments

When I look over my shoulder What do you think I see? Some other cat lookin’ over His shoulder at me. – Donovan, “Season of the Witch” (1966) Josh Leonard: I see why you like this video camera so much. Heather Donahue: You do? Josh Leonard: It’s not quite reality. It’s like a totally filtered …

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When the Story Breaks

By Ben Hunt | August 25, 2015 | 0 Comments

The Three Types of Fear: The Gross-out: the sight of a severed head tumbling down a flight of stairs. It’s when the lights go out and something green and slimy splatters against your arm. The Horror: the unnatural, spiders the size of bears, the dead waking up and walking around. It’s when the lights go …

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