All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.
TFW a Chinese “social video and online dating specialist” called Momo just isn’t momentum-y enough for you, but the Raccoon tandem of Fox Business and Motley Fool is there to help you out with “even better buys”.
Plus the Stanford shadow economy for profs, the War against Big Everything, and all the Fiat News that’s fit to read.
Honestly, you could replace 90% of the daily news with a collection of Mitch Hedberg one-liners.
“People either love me or hate me … or they think I’m okay.”
Our modern addiction? Fiat News.
It all started with the Maestro, Alan Greenspan, and his determination to create a Great Moderation. And it was all going so swimmingly, too, until the Great Disaster of 2008.
Now that there’s so little central banks can do, they are dead set on preventing another downturn before it even starts. So how does risk ‘price’ in capital markets when the cost of capital is constantly set too low? It doesn’t.
Today’s Zeitgeist is about winning when we’re losing, the polarizing power of hyperbole, more on SRI/ESG, a wonderful specimen of the Mad Creditor Letter and a less-wonderful specimen of the Obligatory Press Release.
Everything about the Zeitgeist is working to steer promising minds toward cultivating the skills and temperament needed to succeed in a Fiat World. We are creating a generation of missionaries.
Just one small problem: a competitive game among missionaries is a stag hunt. The dominant strategy for each of us individually is bad for us all. So what the hell do we do?
The Nudging State and Nudging Oligarchy believe they are giving us a gift: Freedom from Choice.
Except that it is neither a gift nor freedom in any sense. Rejecting it isn’t always easy and it isn’t always costless. But it’s the only choice for anyone who would be free.
Today’s Zeitgeist is about crashes on crashes, Nplpalooza 2019 and hunger-striking ruined property tycoons.
But mostly we celebrate the hedge fund industry’s effort to shake off last year’s challenges. From all of us, thank you for this gift of what we will just assume is uncorrelated alpha.
A Weekend Edition of the Zeitgeist, where we turn from financial markets to find the narratives and stories from the last week or so that were most connected to common narratives in culture and politics.
Climate change! Secretive boards! A gazillion dollars! Boat Race Bank!
Wait…Boat Race Bank?
It’s the Zeitgeist on Epsilon Theory, where we all knew we were living in a world of Fiat News. We just needed to refocus on fundamentals.
We are immersed 24/7 in a Fiat World, where we are TOLD that inflation does not exist, where we are TOLD that wealth inequality and meager productivity and negative savings rates just “happen”, where we are TOLD we must vote for ridiculous candidates and buy ridiculous securities and borrow ridiculous sums.
We’re not Flat Earthers. Ha Ha! Those guys are idiots! Can you imagine believing that stuff?
No, we’re not Flat Earthers. We are Fiat Earthers.
Ladies and gentlemen, your Narrative-world assault words du jour … “sponsored content”, “democratic justifications”, “fishing expeditions”, “diversification”, “value investing”, and “growth of $1”.
The ET Zeitgeist, because if you don’t know who the sucker is at the poker table … it’s you.
Kashkari on Brexit, Cramer on Tesla, Breitbart on China, and “shorting unethical stocks” … all in a day’s work for The Zeitgeist!
Every morning, we run The Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. They’re not the best articles – often far from it – but they will arm you for the Narrative wars of the day ahead.
ET contributor Neville Crawley is simply one of the wisest people I know, and he outdoes himself in this killer Rabbit Hole note.
Come for the Amazon anecdote. Stay for the book recommendations.
Fiat News and narrative construction galore in today’s set of the most on-narrative financial media articles.
What links them all? Dopamine is a helluva drug.
The new Zeitgeist is here! Now with all the snippets and twice the snark.
Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. They’re not the best articles – often far from it – but they will arm you for the Narrative wars of the day ahead.
Why are institutional investors in trouble with the new Zeitgeist of capital markets transformed into a political utility?
Because everything you think you know about portfolio diversification will fail. Because emerging markets are going to be crushed before this is over. Because everyone’s inflation-investing muscles have atrophied to the point of helplessness. Because you think long-vol and crisis-alpha are things.
BATs vs. FAANGs, trading against institutions, trading with institutions, why Americans buy cars and a shocking J.C. Penney news bulletin.
The problem isn’t that we derive too much of our worth and value from work. The problem is that our jobs are becoming increasingly abstracted from work. Friends: Your work is holy.
Lots of Blockchain, UK house prices subdued, trade talks weigh, idol worship perilous, a rich kid buys gold and why Nintendo goes back to Pokemon.
Now that Jay Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony has finished up, it’s time for a brief walk down Memory Lane.
As with everything else in our Washington clown show, nothing really changes. This has all happened before.