All Epsilon Theory Content


Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory including our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. Plus, short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes.

Breaking Bad

By Ben Hunt | August 19, 2015 | 0 Comments

Jesse: And why’d you go and tell her I was selling you weed? Walt: Because somehow it seemed preferable to admitting that I cook crystal meth and killed a man. – “Breaking Bad” (2008) Meadow: Are you in the Mafia? Tony: Am I in the what? Meadow: Whatever you want to call it. Organized crime. …

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Actually Maybe Not So Excellent

By Ben Hunt | August 11, 2015 | 0 Comments

Everything under heaven is in chaos; the situation is excellent. ― Mao Zedong (1893 – 1976) A quick email on China’s currency devaluation last night. The news itself is big enough, but it’s the Narrative that’s developing around the devaluation that has my risk antennae quivering like crazy. What do I mean? I mean that …

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“Suddenly, Last Summer”

By Ben Hunt | July 29, 2015 | 0 Comments

A quick Epsilon Theory email and a quick announcement. Announcement first. I’ll be giving a 1-hour webcast on Risk Premia strategies next Tuesday, August 4th, along with Salient President Jeremy Radcliffe and Salient Portfolio Manager Rob Croce, who knows more about the guts of these strategies than anyone should. The webcast qualifies for CE credit …

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The New TVA

By Ben Hunt | July 23, 2015 | 0 Comments

War is too important to be left to the generals. – Georges Clemenceau (1841 -1929) Competition has been shown to be useful up to a certain point and no further, but cooperation, which is the thing we must strive for today, begins where competition leaves off. … If we call the method regulation, people will …

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1914 is (still) the New Black

By Ben Hunt | July 6, 2015 | 0 Comments

There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. – Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924)  In 1914, Europe had arrived at a point in which every country except Germany was afraid of the present, and Germany was afraid of the future.  – Sir Edward Grey (1862 – 1933)  Last week’s email, …

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1914 is the New Black

By Ben Hunt | June 29, 2015 | 0 Comments

Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right … and who is dead. – “The Princess Bride” (1987)  Time is a game played beautifully by children. – Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 – 475 …

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Inherent Vice

By Ben Hunt | June 22, 2015 | 0 Comments

Want to get hours of your week as a professional investor back? Want to reduce pointless portfolio activity and bad use of time with clients? Stop predicting games of chicken.

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Two Growth Announcements and One Not So Much

By Ben Hunt | June 10, 2015 | 0 Comments

I’m with you in Rockland where we are great writers on the same dreadful typewriter. – Allen Ginsberg, “Howl” (1956)  Give me a long enough lever and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I will move the world. – Archimedes (287 – 212 BC)  Play-offs?!? Don’t talk about…Play-offs?!? You kidding me? Play-offs?!? – …

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Sometimes a Cigar is Just a Cigar

By Ben Hunt | May 22, 2015 | 0 Comments

Neurosis is the inability to tolerate ambiguity. – Sigmund Freud (1886 – 1939) To learn which questions are unanswerable, and not to answer them: this skill is most useful in times of stress and darkness. – Ursula K. Le Guin, “The Left Hand of Darkness” (1969) Is everything connected, so that events create resonances like …

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More Probable Than Not

By Ben Hunt | May 11, 2015 | 0 Comments

The only thing that I ask from this group today and the American people is to judge me from this day forward. That’s all I can ask for.  – Alex Rodriguez press conference, February 17, 2009, regarding his steroid use from 2001 – 2003. I’m ready to put this chapter behind me and play some ball.  …

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The Talented Mr. Ripley

By Ben Hunt | April 27, 2015 | 0 Comments

The more I practice, the luckier I get.– Gary Player (b. 1935) Luck is the residue of design. – Branch Rickey (1881 – 1965) I’ve found that you don’t need to wear a necktie if you can hit. – Ted Williams (1918 – 2002) They say that nobody is perfect. Then they say that practice makes …

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It’s Still Not About the Nail

By Ben Hunt | April 14, 2015 | 0 Comments

Reader reaction to the March 31 Epsilon Theory note, “It’s Not About the Nail”, was probably the strongest and most positive for any note to date. The message in a nutshell: financial advisors of all stripes and sizes would be well-served to do more than serve up old-school diversification platitudes in this Brave New World …

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It’s Not About the Nail

By Ben Hunt | March 31, 2015 | 0 Comments

Do, or do not. There is no try.” – Yoda, “Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back” (1980) I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations – one can either do this or that. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do it – …

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Troy Will Burn – the Big Deal about Big Data

By Ben Hunt | March 16, 2015 | 0 Comments

For the life of me, I don’t understand the debate [over the NSA metadata program]. – Jeb Bush, February 18, 2015 The Central Intelligence Agency played a crucial role in helping the Justice Department develop technology that scans data from thousands of US cellphones at a time, part of a secret high-tech alliance between the …

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Epsilon Theory Mailbag: Bitcoin and Big Data

By Ben Hunt | March 9, 2015 | 0 Comments

One of the best parts of authoring Epsilon Theory is the correspondence I get from readers. For the past few months, however, I’ve been frustrated by my inability to respond to every writer with the same attention and thoughtfulness evidenced by their emails. Between my day job and the effort each Epsilon Theory note requires, …

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Why Take a Chance?

By Ben Hunt | February 24, 2015 | 0 Comments

Vinny Forlano: He won’t talk. Stone is a good kid. Stand-up guy, just like his old man. That’s the way I see it. Vincent Borelli: I agree. He’s solid. An effin’ Marine. Americo Capelli: He’s okay. He always was. Remo, what do you think? Remo Gaggi: Look… why take a chance? At least, that’s the …

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The Effete Rebellion of Bitcoin

By Ben Hunt | February 17, 2015 | 0 Comments

Neil McCauley: We want to hurt no one! We’re here for the bank’s money, not your money. Your money is insured by the federal government, you’re not gonna lose a dime. Think of your families, don’t risk your life. Don’t try and be a hero! “Heat” (1995) Butch Cassidy: What happened to the old bank? …

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First Known When Lost

By Ben Hunt | February 3, 2015 | 0 Comments

I never noticed it until ‘Twas gone – the narrow copse Where now the woodman lops The last of the willows with his bill – Edward Thomas, “First Known When Lost” (1917) Dave Bowman: Open the pod bay doors, HAL. Hal: I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that. Dave Bowman: What’s the problem? …

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7 Quick Points on Europe

By Ben Hunt | January 26, 2015 | 0 Comments

#1) Here are the most relevant recent notes for an Epsilon Theory perspective on the underlying political and market risks in Europe: “The Red King” (July 14, 2014) and “Now There’s Something You Don’t See Every Day, Chauncey” (Dec. 16, 2014). #2) Markets reacted positively to last Thursday’s announcement because Draghi doubled the amount of QE that he …

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Ghost in the Machine, Part 1

By Ben Hunt | January 20, 2015 | 0 Comments

  The way out is through the door. Why is it that no one will use this method? ― Confucius (551 – 479 BC) Tanzan and Ekido were once traveling together down a muddy road. A heavy rain was still falling. Coming around a bend, they met a lovely girl in a silk kimono and …

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