The Zeitgeist

The Miracle Max of MBS

By Rusty Guinn | March 30, 2020

When the Story Bends

By Rusty Guinn | March 24, 2020

Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders

By Ben Hunt | March 23, 2020

The Non-Linearity of Need, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | March 19, 2020

Our Escape Story

By Rusty Guinn | March 18, 2020

Margin Call

By Rusty Guinn | March 16, 2020

The Python and the Pig

By Ben Hunt | March 13, 2020

Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | March 12, 2020

Don’t Test, Don’t Tell (10 Days Later)

By Ben Hunt | March 8, 2020

The Mozilo Market

By Ben Hunt | February 28, 2020

Join Us. No, Really.

By Rusty Guinn | February 25, 2020

Kitchen Sink It

By Rusty Guinn | February 20, 2020

Thanksgiving

By Rusty Guinn | February 19, 2020

Love in the Time of COVID-19

By Ben Hunt | February 17, 2020

Options

By Rusty Guinn | February 12, 2020

#OurFinestHour

Once in a Lifetime

By Ben Hunt | March 29, 2020 | 21

We are led by high-functioning sociopaths, in our politics and our economy, and nowhere is this more apparent than in our war against COVID-19. It’s not a left/right thing. It’s not a Republican/Democrat thing. It’s a power thing.

Enough. It’s time for the Pack to howl.

Empathy + Minimax Regret is the answer. Because 2 + 2 = 4.

Yes, this is a personal note. That’s what this war is for all of us … personal.

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Do The Right Thing

By Ben Hunt | March 19, 2020 | 28

I’m angry that I have to write this note about the airline industry and how to structure the bail-out of United, Delta, American and Southwest. But I must, because the raccoons and the high-functioning sociopaths are looking to get their private losses socialized and their private gains locked in.

Bailout the airlines and their rank-and-file employees? You bet.

Bailout the CEOs and Warren Buffett? Not a chance.

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Lack of Imagination

By Rusty Guinn | March 14, 2020 | 27

The structurally bullish will warn us against failure of nerve. The traders will warn us against hesitation. The structurally bearish will warn us about being unable to shift into a defensive shape. But what we should be worried about now is a lack of imagination.

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Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders

By Ben Hunt | March 23, 2020 | 2

This is our personal effort to help identify *need*, *sources*, and *money* for personal protective equipment distributions to healthcare workers and first responders.

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Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | March 12, 2020 | 15

For the first time our federal government is treating the fight against this virus like the war that it is.

Is it pathetic and sad and a corrupt betrayal of the public trust that it took this long? Absolutely.

But now here we go. And there is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States.

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The Non-Linearity of Need

By Rusty Guinn | March 9, 2020 | 12

In a potential recession, need isn’t evenly distributed. In a pandemic, that’s even more true. The time to start helping is now.

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ET In Full

Don’t Mess with Mister In-Between

By Ben Hunt | November 8, 2012 | 0

Early research on the relationship between informational surfaces and structural market change. epsilon-theory-dont-mess-with-mister-in-between.pdf (244 KB)

Jack Welch was Right

By Ben Hunt | October 29, 2012 | 0

An analysis of systematic error in BLS data and its role in the Narrative regarding US labor conditions. epsilon-theory-jack-welch-was-right-october-29-2012.pdf (219 KB)

Donald Rumsfeld and Risk Management

By Ben Hunt | October 7, 2012 | 0

Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

By Ben Hunt | September 29, 2012 | 0

Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)

Dude, Where’s My Financial Repression

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2012 | 0

An initial analysis of the Sept. 15th FOMC announcement of open-ended QE. epsilon-theory-dude-wheres-my-financial-repression-september-15-2012.pdf (191 KB)

Why Do Words Matter So Much?

By Ben Hunt | August 30, 2012 | 0

Early notes on importance of Common Knowledge game in understanding market behavior. epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB) Test: epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB)

Archive Spotlight

When Was I Radicalized? (Boeing edition)

November 5, 2019

I believe it is impossible to separate the modern management practice of self-enrichment through massive levels of stock-based comp from the modern management practice of investor placation through massive levels of stock buybacks … without regulating one or the other practice.

But I’m all ears for any ideas.

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ET Live!

ET Live! – 3.10.2020

March 9, 2020

Covid-19 is a fertile ground for narratives and missionaries of all kinds – from politicians to central banks, corporate leaders and financial media pundits. Join us as we discuss them.

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ET Live! – 2.18.2020

February 18, 2020

This ET Live! is all about Coronavirus, except it’s not – it’s all about how institutions who solve for narrative outcomes invariably create bad results in the Real World.

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