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Things Fall Apart (Part 1)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2018 | 10 Comments

Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

It Was You, Charley

By Rusty Guinn | July 16, 2018 | 0 Comments

Part 3 of the Three-Body Alpha series, written for anyone puzzled by value’s underperformance over the past NINE YEARS. Systematic value still works in markets warped by the Three-Body Problem, but works differently.

Letter From a Birmingham Museum

By Ben Hunt | July 3, 2018 | 23 Comments

MLK Day reminds us of the foundations of a UNITED States of America, a reminder that has never been more important to take into our hearts.

It’s not too late, you know. We can still find that unifying Narrative of what America can – and should – mean.

Mental Toughness!

By Rusty Guinn | June 8, 2018 | 0 Comments

Investing requires mental toughness, but it doesn’t require us to pretend that we — or our colleagues — are invincible. More often, it instead requires us to acknowledge our weakness.

The Acrobat and the Fly

By Rusty Guinn | June 1, 2018 | 0 Comments

Many of the memes that drive our political behaviors inherently push us toward Competitive Games and tribalism. Resisting these memes means losing both arguments and credibility – and we have to be willing to do both.

This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things

By Ben Hunt | May 22, 2018 | 1 Comment

Part 13 of the Notes from the Field series discusses The Narrative Machine, which can help us see the invisible memes that drive our political behaviors. Because you’re smart enough to make up your own damn mind.

The Many Moods of Macro

By Rusty Guinn | May 9, 2018 | 0 Comments

Part 2 of the multi-part Three-Body Alpha series, introduced in Rusty’s recent Investing with Icarus note. The Series seeks to explore how the increasing transformation of fundamental and economic data into abstractions may influence strategies for investing — and how it should influence investors accessing them.

The Narrative Giveth and The Narrative Taketh Away

By Ben Hunt | April 10, 2018 | 0 Comments

Two negative narratives have derailed ebullient markets – Inflation and Trade War. While I think both are here to stay, I’ve put inflation through the Narrative Machine first. The result? Inflation is Coming.

Investing with Icarus

By Rusty Guinn | March 28, 2018 | 0 Comments

The allure of a fundamental truth is powerful. Investors are hungry for that kind of clarity about markets, but it doesn’t exist. In the first in a series, Rusty discusses a framework for investing in a time of Icarus.

The Icarus Moment

By Ben Hunt | March 21, 2018 | 5 Comments

We live in a Cartoon Age, an era not of alienation per Karl Marx, but of alienation per Groucho Marx. What’s the cause, what’s the future, and what do we do about all this? It’s a TL;DR cri de coeur in Part 12 of Epsilon Theory’s Notes from the Field series.