Epsilon Theory In Brief

Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.


Building the Narrative Machine

By Neville Crawley | December 31, 2018 | 0 Comments

Is it early days with the development of the Narrative Machine? Yes.

But not as early as you might think.

Eight crucial insights on how to incorporate Narrative data into an understanding of markets.

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Rock, Paper, Scissors

By Ben Hunt | December 27, 2018 | 5 Comments

We’ve been doing it wrong with AI for too long. Time to do it right.

We can’t SOLVE for the future of complex social systems like markets or politics with algorithms. But we can CALCULATE the future of these systems with AI.

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Lord Make Me Chaste … But Not Yet

By Ben Hunt | December 24, 2018 | 9 Comments

The problem for markets today is not the Fed.

The problem for markets today is the guy in the White House and his game of Chicken with the world.

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The Prediction Polka

By Rusty Guinn | December 20, 2018 | 6 Comments

We would usually tell you that all information is information. There is no good or bad. No right or wrong. But some things aren’t even information. Knowing what you can ignore is worthwhile.

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We Had The Same Crazy Idea

By Rusty Guinn | December 18, 2018 | 9 Comments

It is a frustrating truth that good – even great – investors rarely know exactly what it is that makes them good. And so the inevitable guilty pleasure of investors – building portfolios from the best ideas of their various managers and advisors – is almost always doomed to fail from the beginning.

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Sin Boldly

By Rusty Guinn | December 16, 2018 | 4 Comments

There is very little that an investor can do to more easily become a better investor than to better understand his behavior. But the investor who relies on awareness, discipline and self-control remains susceptible to a world that seeks to influence his standard for correct behavior.

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Notes from the Diamond #5: Wannabes Beware

By David Salem | December 16, 2018 | 1 Comment

Imitation is not only the sincerest form of flattery, it’s also the engine behind so much of what we do in both professional baseball and professional investing. The trick, of course, is not to get beaned in the process!

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Common Knowledge or Fortune?

By Rusty Guinn | December 14, 2018 | 6 Comments

Common knowledge effects, credentialing and missionaries are everywhere. You may differ in your view of their importance, but if your framework doesn’t acknowledge their role in price-setting, you’re not seeing the full picture.

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In the Trenches: Bridge Out?

By Peter Cecchini | December 13, 2018 | 0 Comments

ET contributor Pete Cecchini, better known as Cantor Fitzgerald’s Chief Market Strategist, is back with the December installment of his series, In the Trenches. For ET readers who want a less philosophical but no less smart take on markets, Pete’s your guy.

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Basically a Snake Don’t Have Parts

By Rusty Guinn | December 12, 2018 | 0 Comments

No matter how much you try to make mama tell you what part of the snake you’re eating, and no matter how much the answer might comfort you, it’s important to know that neither you nor she is telling the truth.

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Introduction to ET Professional

By Rusty Guinn | December 11, 2018 | Comments Off on Introduction to ET Professional

We are pleased to announce the launch of Epsilon Theory Professional, or ET Pro. It is a service designed to leverage our narrative research more directly for investors and asset owners. Learn more about the types of content and research we’re doing here.

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You Don’t Have to Dance Every Dance

By Ben Hunt | December 11, 2018 | 3 Comments

Discretionary investment always and in all ways boils down to two things: edge and odds. In the US-China trade war game of Chicken, you have no edge. And you don’t know the odds. Time to sit this dance out.

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ET Live @ 2PM ET 12.11.2018

By Rusty Guinn | December 10, 2018 | Comments Off on ET Live @ 2PM ET 12.11.2018

We will be live at 2PM on Tuesday, December 11, 2018. Click here to get more information about ET Live, how to subscribe and how to get your questions in for the day.

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The ET Interviews: Banking the Unbankable

By Neville Crawley | December 10, 2018 | 0 Comments

It’s possible to do good AND to do well. ET’s Neville Crawley interviews Lev Plaves, Senior Investment Manager at Kiva, on banking the unbankable – refugees and internally displaced populations.

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

By Ben Hunt | December 7, 2018 | 5 Comments

Sometimes the dog that doesn’t bark gives as loud a warning as the dog that does. That was true for Sherlock Holmes, and it’s true for investors, too.

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The People are Revolting

By Rusty Guinn | December 5, 2018 | 10 Comments

Just because something is true doesn’t mean that it can’t also be transformed into a meme. That is, in fact, the usual outcome when an idea encounters resistance. But this isn’t a path to truth.

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We’re Doing It Wrong

By Ben Hunt | December 4, 2018 | 5 Comments

The market is not a clockwork machine, even though we all think it is. No, the market is a bonfire.

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Inside the Skinner Box

By Rusty Guinn | December 3, 2018 | 8 Comments

If you want to learn how you will be nudged in the future, look to the same places: Vegas and Video Games.

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The ET Interviews: Anti-Authoritarian Technology

By Neville Crawley | December 3, 2018 | 2 Comments

Fresh thoughts on the intersection of technology, freedom and decentralization.
ET’s Neville Crawley interviews Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer for the Human Rights Foundation (HRF).

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Pics or It Didn’t Happen

By Ben Hunt | December 1, 2018 | 10 Comments

What will it take to Burn The Oligarchy Down? Pics of a certain sort. Which is why “doctored” will be 2019’s Word of the Year.

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