Epsilon Theory In Brief

Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.


Fiat News Index – November 2018

By Rusty Guinn | December 1, 2018 | 6 Comments

In our November 2018 update to the Fiat News Index, we review some topics that media outlets are even happier than usual to tell us how to think about.

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Burn. It. Down.

By Ben Hunt | November 28, 2018 | 18 Comments

It’s almost as if there’s a ruling class.

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Take Back Your Thinking

By Neville Crawley | November 26, 2018 | 7 Comments

In the Common Knowledge World, we lose the ability to distinguish between what we think and what we think we think. It’s Fiat Thought, and here’s how you beat it.

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Deals Are My Art Form

By Rusty Guinn | November 26, 2018 | 2 Comments

The emphasis of asset owners on private assets investments is meta-stable – robust to a lot of potential changes in market environment. The reason? The deals! meme.

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American Gods

By Ben Hunt | November 25, 2018 | 11 Comments

Every idea has a story, but the story is not the idea. Stories are born, they live, and they die. But if the idea is powerful enough, it can find a new story and be reborn. Crypto must find a new story.

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What’s Your Metagame? An Open Letter to the Crypto Community

By Ben Hunt | November 23, 2018 | 21 Comments

It’s an invitation to explore a joint research program, as described in TFA3. It’s an invitation to share ideas on liberty, resistance and technological advancement. It’s NOT an invitation to share ideas about money.

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By Rusty Guinn | November 22, 2018 | 10 Comments

To our readers, to our supporters, to our engaged commenters, and to the people who have compared Epsilon Theory to drinking paint, a word: thanks.

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The Power of Neg

By Ben Hunt | November 21, 2018 | 5 Comments

It’s an old chess saying: “The easiest way to defeat a gambit is to refuse it.”

But that’s just the start of a successful metagame.

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Say Uncle!

By Rusty Guinn | November 21, 2018 | 2 Comments

I don’t know what the Fed should do in December. But I do know how financial media (and Donald Trump) want you to think about what they should do in December.

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Hobson’s Choice

By Ben Hunt | November 20, 2018 | 6 Comments

“What do you mean you don’t make side orders of toast? You make sandwiches, don’t you?”

Bobby thinks he has lots of choices, but really he only has one.

We’re all Bobby today.

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That’s Just Putting On a Nice Sweater

By Rusty Guinn | November 18, 2018 | 1 Comment

When something becomes as necessary, accepted and right-sounding as ‘process’, it can be tough to tell the difference between the cartoon and the genuine article.

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Cards of Control and a Brave Little Toaster

By Neville Crawley | November 17, 2018 | 0 Comments

All the tech links you need for a great weekend read.

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You Had A Stamp Collection?

By Ben Hunt | November 16, 2018 | 3 Comments

A quick note on no-coiners, people (like me) who have never owned Bitcoin, but have just watched from afar. We’re being played. Not to buy Bitcoin, but to obey the logic of the flock.

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When That Fire Hits

By Rusty Guinn | November 15, 2018 | 1 Comment

Our brains’ responses to memes are mostly existential – fight or flight. We can’t turn off these responses. But we can train our behavior to question them.

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The Sicilian Offense

By Rusty Guinn | November 14, 2018 | 4 Comments

I don’t know that any investor’s mean expectation for Amazon ought to have moved an inch. But should a poorly played metagame change investors’ probabilistic outlook? I think so.

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I Know Why the Caged Bird Speaks

By Ben Hunt | November 14, 2018 | 9 Comments

In the construction of Fiat News, it’s the choice of facts and the choice of words that preserve the power to make us feel. Because that’s the only thing that really matters – how do the words make you FEEL?

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Working to Protect the World from Bananas

By Neville Crawley | November 12, 2018 | 11 Comments

With technology, even totalitarian surveillance technology, there typically is no ‘big bang’, just a bunch of independent systems coming on line, getting networked together, and then a tipping point. We’re there with China.

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Foundation and Empire

By Ben Hunt | November 12, 2018 | 6 Comments

How can US household net worth continue to outpace US economic growth if the Fed won’t play ball with easy monetary policy? History shows another way to keep the party going

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The Fiat News Index

By Rusty Guinn | November 11, 2018 | 14 Comments

Common criticisms of the news media tend to focus on bias. But when it comes to learning to resist the unavoidable influence of narrative and meme on our brains, our focus should be on how much we allow others to explain things to us. We’re working on tools to allow citizens to do exactly that.

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Infrastructure Week!

By Ben Hunt | November 9, 2018 | 8 Comments

There’s a dog that didn’t bark in the midterm campaign. And its silence tells me a lot about where this country is going.

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