Epsilon Theory In Brief

Epsilon Theory In Brief

 

Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.

Fiat News in the Fog of War

By Rusty Guinn | October 18, 2023 | 24 Comments

The obligation of the news media when major events are unfolding should be to act with more discretion and care, not less.

They failed at this most critical task this week. Utterly.

Generative AI Images and how Microsoft Doesn’t Understand the Internet

By Desperate_Yuppie | October 13, 2023 | 20 Comments

A sample of what you’ll find on the Epsilon Theory Forum – a safe space for full-hearted people to voice their concerns and hopes and observations about today’s world without the emotional cudgel of cancellation or the emotional crutch of an echo chamber. You know … what social media should be!

And yes, it’s for paid subscribers only, which is how we keep the trolls at bay.

Lessons From Biking 245 Miles Across France

By Kyla Scanlon | October 12, 2023 | 7 Comments

ET contributor Kyla Scanlon was stuck. So she went biking with strangers who through the magic of talking became friends and confidants. And that’s how you get unstuck.

Breaking News #6: Maintaining Optimism in a Polarized Political World

By Harper Hunt | October 12, 2023 | 24 Comments

The political world is becoming more polarized by the day. In our previous episodes, we have looked at why this is occurring, and why it is likely to get worse before it gets better.

But that doesn’t mean we should give up. There are many things those of us who don’t want to give in to this polarization can do to better navigate this world and to find like minded people who also feel the same way.

One Less Vulnerability

By Brent Donnelly | October 5, 2023 | 4 Comments

Yes, this is a note about oil prices. But more importantly it’s a note about all the changes in correlation and transmission to FX that have happened over the past few years.

Cursed Knowledge #21: Invasive Species

By Harper Hunt | October 5, 2023 | 15 Comments

Invasive species are a known “bad thing”. An organism that’s introduced to an environment and ruins it. So why don’t we do anything about them? And is there even anything we can do?

Breaking News #5: Voldemort 2024! The Biden/Trump Rematch No One Wants

By Harper Hunt | September 28, 2023 | 10 Comments

Polls show that the majority of Americans are not happy about the choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump that we are likely to face in the next election. In this episode, we discuss how we got to this point. We look at the embedded problems in our political system that favor incumbents and how it has led us to where we are today. We also look at the political strategy used by incumbents and how they attempt to stave off upstart candidates by altering the system itself.

Cursed Knowledge #20: Airbnb

By Harper Hunt | September 21, 2023 | 3 Comments

Airbnb has reshaped how we travel and disrupted the hotel industry. But most of the stories from both guests and hosts reveal nothing but disasters. So what’s really going on? What’s the real story of Airbnb?

Breaking News #4: From Ross Perot to RFK Jr – The Evolving Narratives of Political Entrepreneurs

By Harper Hunt | September 14, 2023 | 18 Comments

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the tactics and tools used by upstart political entrepreneurs. Our political system is setup to heavily favor incumbents and candidates that are part of the political establishment. This presents an exceptionally difficult challenge for candidates who come from outside of that system. But social media and technology have given upstart candidates more tools at their disposal than they have ever had in history. And they are using them to both gain our votes and influence our opinions. We discuss how they do that and how all of us can maintain Clear Eyes and Full Hearts in the midst of their influence.

Inflation in the Twenty-First Century: A Circular Flow No Longer

By Kevin Coldiron | September 12, 2023 | 15 Comments

The flow of dollars between the US and China is no longer circular, and that has enormous implications for how the US finances its budget deficits.

New from ET contributor Kevin Coldiron!

Cursed Knowledge #19: The Snappiest Place on Earth

By Harper Hunt | September 7, 2023 | 2 Comments

We live in a very safe world. And we’ve worked hard to make it safe. But sometimes we take that safety for granted. And sometimes we think that safety applies even when it really really doesn’t.

The Time I Got A High School Paper Extension In A Bar: The Fourth Turning (But Not In The Way You Think)

By Matt Zeigler | September 6, 2023 | 24 Comments

Wanna guess what book both Steve Bannon and Al Gore handed out to members of Congress?

ET contributor Matt Zeigler knows it was “The Fourth Turning”, and he’s got a thing or two to say about generational theory.

Inflation in the Twenty-First Century: Unintended Consequences

By Kevin Coldiron | September 1, 2023 | 37 Comments

“My house in California sits within a short walk of the Hayward fault. Most of the time nothing happens, but occasionally we are jolted awake by an earthquake.”

New ET contributor Kevin Coldiron on the tectonic plates that are driving inflation (and its consequences) today!

Breaking News #3: ESG, Vivek Ramaswamy and The Influence of Political Entrepreneurs

By Harper Hunt | August 31, 2023 | 8 Comments

Political entrepreneurs are all around us. They influence what we think. They influence how we think. But we often don’t recognize it. In this episode, we pull back the curtain on the world of political entrepreneurs. We explain who they are, what they do and why they do it. We also look at what we can all do to protect ourselves from their influence.

Cursed Knowledge #18: The Bone Wars

By Harper Hunt | August 24, 2023 | 5 Comments

The Bone Wars. A decade long battle of ego between two dueling paleontologists. It’s a tale of obsession, sabotage, and academic backstabbing. This clash of titans brought new attention to the theory of evolution and helped make dinosaurs the cultural juggernauts we know them as now.

Breaking News #2: The Drumbeat of Inflation

By Harper Hunt | August 17, 2023 | 16 Comments

The recession-is-coming Narrative is dead and the inflation-is-over narrative is dominant, making the Fed’s job that much harder and making resurgent inflation that much more likely.

Now about those 10-yr Treasury yields …

Cursed Knowledge #17: Frances Ethel Gumm and the Wizard of Oz

By Harper Hunt | August 10, 2023 | 1 Comment

Harper and Ben finally get a chance to talk about the Wizard of Oz and the not so wonderful behind the scenes production. Of course this was par for the course in the Golden Age of Hollywood as the studio star making system controlled everything. And we do mean everything.

How To Live Forever: The Future Is Shaped By The Art We Make

By Scott Bradlee | August 8, 2023 | 10 Comments

A beautiful note by musician/composer Scott Bradlee, of Postmodern Jukebox fame, on the permanence and power of art.

Mythology IS the song.

What will your verse be?

Breaking News #1: The Water In Which We Swim

By Harper Hunt | August 3, 2023 | 0 Comments

In our kick-off episode, Ben, Matt and Jack talk about why we’re here – to break open the news reported by mainstream media to reveal the Nudging language of narrative and story that drives us.

We focus on the reporting of inflation as a perfect example of what we call Fiat News.

The Economic Perception Model

By Kyla Scanlon | August 2, 2023 | 9 Comments

Recession – like beauty – is in the eye of the beholder. Unlike beauty, though, our economic perceptions are far more likely to fall into the self-imposed traps of cynicism and nihilism.