Epsilon Theory In Full

 

The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.

The Road to Tannu Tuva, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | December 19, 2018 | 5 Comments

When our processes of inquiry lack challenge, doubt and obsession with falsifying our best ideas, the result is inevitable. Our conclusions cease to be science and become something else entirely. That something else is a thing sensitive to narrative, vulnerable to priors and bias. That something else is scientism.

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Even When I Lie

By Rusty Guinn | November 28, 2018 | 28 Comments

The way I see it, there are three reasons a person becomes a liar: he believes that he must, he believes that he may, or he believes it serves a Greater Truth.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Politics

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2018 | 15 Comments

Take back your vote.
Take back your distance.
Take back your data.

How to make our way as citizens in a fallen world, with Clear Eyes and Full Hearts to make it better.

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Notes from the Diamond #4: Less Is More

By David Salem | November 10, 2018 | 2 Comments

Peer group comparisons are the primary measuring stick of both baseball GMs and investment PMs. Here’s how they are used and (more often) abused.

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Draft Day

By Rusty Guinn | November 7, 2018 | 9 Comments

We are wired to associate outcomes with the biggest single visible variance. This is a process-breaking flaw for general managers and portfolio managers alike.

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In the Trenches: A False Sense of Stability

By Peter Cecchini | November 2, 2018 | 0 Comments

In the first note from new Epsilon Theory contributor Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald, Peter gives us a window into what a false sense of stability may mean for investors heading into the end of 2018.

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Notes from the Diamond #3: Everything Has Its Price

By David Salem | October 26, 2018 | 7 Comments

Allocators and investors can learn a lot from professional baseball about how to structure incentives and compensation for portfolio managers. And how NOT to do it.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 3) – Markets

By Ben Hunt | October 24, 2018 | 22 Comments

The Fed, China and Italy are the Three Horsemen of the Investment Semi-Apocalypse. They’re major market risks, but you’ll survive.

There’s a Fourth Horseman. And it will change EVERYTHING about investing.

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Figaro

By Rusty Guinn | October 23, 2018 | 5 Comments

In Part 4 of the Three-Body Alpha series, we explore how narrative may shape the tendencies of certain trend-following strategies – and how investors should respond. We also talk Tesla, if you’re into that sort of thing.

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Notes from the Diamond #2: Until the Truth Comes Out

By David Salem | October 11, 2018 | 2 Comments

Part 2 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.

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Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2018 | 18 Comments

What to DO when Things Fall Apart. How to make your way in a fallen world, where the electorate is polarized, the market is monolithic, and everyone seems to have lost their damn minds.

It’s not an Answer. It’s a Process.

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Notes from the Diamond #1: Always Something New to Learn

By David Salem | September 26, 2018 | 0 Comments
Yazstremski waits for the bounce.

Part 1 of a multi-part series that seeks to enhance readers’ deployment of both human and financial capital through the exploration of parallels between money management and professional baseball.

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Deadly. Holy. Rough. Immediate.

By Rusty Guinn | September 26, 2018 | 0 Comments
Stephen Fry and Mark Rylance engaging in Immediate Theatre

It’s hard to be larger than life in a smaller than life world. It’s hard to be authentic in your art without being artificial. Good theatre does just that. We’re hoping to do the same in Epsilon Theory.

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Notes From the Road: Roadkill

By Rusty Guinn | September 17, 2018 | 0 Comments
Get well soon balloon

Part 2 of the Notes from the Road series, about the value of and problems with adaptive frameworks. In this installment, an exploration of……roadkill, and what evolution can tell us about our adaptations.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 2)

By Ben Hunt | September 4, 2018 | 0 Comments
Tony Soprano stares at you menacingly

Part 2 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper.

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Notes from the Road: Bayes and the Boreen

By Rusty Guinn | August 20, 2018 | 0 Comments

In Part 1 of his Notes from the Road series, Rusty takes us to Ireland. There he begins an exploration of path-dependence and priors in our thinking as investors and citizens.

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Grant Williams “In Conversation” with Ben Hunt

By Ben Hunt | August 17, 2018 | Comments Off on Grant Williams “In Conversation” with Ben Hunt

Well, you know you’ve really made it in this business when Grant Williams shows up on your doorstep with his crew. What an honor to be part of Grant’s “In Conversation” video series, and what a blast we had making this film! As many of you know, Grant is a co-founder of RealVision, which provides …

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Things Fall Apart (Part 1)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2018 | 7 Comments

Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

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It Was You, Charley

By Rusty Guinn | July 16, 2018 | 0 Comments

Part 3 of the Three-Body Alpha series, written for anyone puzzled by value’s underperformance over the past NINE YEARS. Systematic value still works in markets warped by the Three-Body Problem, but works differently.

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Letter From a Birmingham Museum

By Ben Hunt | July 3, 2018 | 0 Comments

The goal of most Narratives is to convince you to sit down and shut up. But every once in great while, their goal is to fight fire with fire – to make you start thinking when others are telling you to stop.

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