All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

On Tilt

By Ben Hunt | May 31, 2019 | 1 Comment

It’s like he’s a drunk dentist in Vegas for a convention, sitting down at the poker table and getting bored after three hands. So he decides that he can “impose his will” on the table by opening up out of position with rags and making a continuation bet all the way through the river. Like everyone else at the table doesn’t see him for EXACTLY who he is.

Citizen Trump / Citizen Xi

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2019 | 2 Comments

This isn’t a US thing. This isn’t a China thing. This isn’t a Trump thing. This isn’t a Xi thing.

This is a social animal thing.

The words are not lies. The words are not wrong. The conflict may be just.

But you are being played nonetheless.

B3 Debt is the New Black

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2019 | 1 Comment

I’m not sure that people who aren’t immersed in this world realize how crappy B3 debt is. Or how much of it is getting pushed into the market.

THIS is financialization.

Red Dawn

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2019 | 2 Comments

How will you know that the US-China trade Narrative is shifting towards a protracted game of Chicken?

When the narrative becomes dominated by national security language and clusters.

Rusty and I have been all over this for a year. More to the point, we have been right. If you want to know what’s happening with the Trade & Tariff narrative structure, you should subscribe to ET Professional. This is what we DO.

In the Flow – Chef’s Knives

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2019 | 9 Comments

It’s easy to get waaaay too precious when it comes to professional kitchens, whether we’re talking about restaurants or a trading desk.

But credit default swaps are like chef knives. They’re not an affectation, but a necessary tool for so many tasks. Even if you don’t cook or trade a portfolio professionally, you’ll want to own a good knife and you’ll want to know the mechanics and the rationale of a CDS trade.

Spree

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2019 | 0 Comments

The word “spree” is so evocative in narrative-world, implying at a minimum some sort of wantonness and excess, some sort of moral bankruptcy.

How threadbare and slow-growing is the financial services world today? It’s a “hiring spree” just to open up a New York office. With 30 people. By 2022.

Amazon, Facebook and the Modern Trust [the ET Zeitgeist]

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2019 | 3 Comments

Facebook is a master at implementing price increases under the narrative of “optimization”, as if the company was doing you a favor by raising their ad prices so much. Now Amazon is reading from the same playbook in their advertising business.

Time to break up the trusts. Again.

Never Run the Same Gag Twice [The ET Zeitgeist]

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2019 | 1 Comment

It’s the best line in a movie full of great lines: You don’t run the same gag twice. You run the next gag.

Elon Musk is running the next gag.

A Song of Ice and Fire

By Ben Hunt | May 27, 2019 | 13 Comments

We are the human animal.

We are non-linear.

We ARE a song of ice and fire.

It’s a song that has built cathedrals and fed billions and taken us to the moon. It’s a song that can do all of that and more … far, far more … if only we remember the tune.

The Pack remembers.

A Holy Day

By Rusty Guinn | May 27, 2019 | 3 Comments

If Memorial Day is anything, it is a day for telling and re-telling stories about Full Hearts. Let me tell and re-tell you the story of Milton Lee Olive III.

The Holiday Zeitgeist – 5.26.2019

By Rusty Guinn | May 26, 2019 | 3 Comments

It’s the Holiday Weekend Zeitgeist! In which we see an election season narrative make its way into other topics, hear the FDA’s plans to deal with expiring salt, hear from local man about local bear, hear from local man about local swimming hole, begin to doubt our judgment about the political import of impeachment proceedings, and read some perverse New York Times fanfic.

Going Gray

By Ben Hunt | May 23, 2019 | 2 Comments

Huawei Founder Says U.S. Won’t Disrupt Business As Analysts Warn Of Sales Slowdown [Forbes]

Narrator: The cause-and-effect was, in fact, that simple

By Ben Hunt | May 23, 2019 | 0 Comments

The Fed Is Likely to Make an ‘Insurance’ Rate Cut [Bloomberg]

The Zeitgeist – 5.22.2019

By Ben Hunt | May 22, 2019 | 5 Comments

Retirement plan menus are ground zero for what is delightfully referred to as “choice architecture” … steering and Nudging you into making the “right” choice.

Ad men understand choice architecture. So do mob bosses. It’s all about creating a Hobson’s Choice … a choice that’s no choice at all.

It’s not a Wheel. It’s a Carousel.

The Zeitgeist – 5.21.2019

By Ben Hunt | May 21, 2019 | 2 Comments

“According to the Aspen Institute, close to 6 in 10 working-age Americans do not have a retirement account. Sadly, the Aspen Institute also warns that things are likely to get worse due to the changing nature of work.”

The American worker is the proverbial boiled frog. Or Milton from Office Space. Same thing.

The Zeitgeist – 5.20.2019

By Ben Hunt | May 20, 2019 | 1 Comment

The best part of Robert Smith’s pledge to repay student loans? The pressure this puts on other billionaires when they get an invite from alma mater.

Then again, most billionaires are high-functioning sociopaths, so they truly believe that their words and moving speeches are reward enough for graduates. 

A Clear Eyes / Full Hearts Story

By Rusty Guinn | May 19, 2019 | 1 Comment

I like to think that we do a good job responding to our readers’ questions. If we have a weak spot, however, I know where…

The Weekend Zeitgeist – 5.18.2019

By Rusty Guinn | May 18, 2019 | 3 Comments

It’s the Weekend Zeitgeist! In which anti-Semitism raises its ugly head (again), the iconoclasm debate joins the fray (again), we stress about the gig economy, observe a campaign that doesn’t fit the narrative, explain away funeral cost increases and finally – finally! – hear the true story of…sky penis?

The Life Aquatic

By Demonetized | May 17, 2019 | 1 Comment

New from ET contributor Demonetized … how do you handle a counterparty that has engineered a Heads I Win, Tails You Lose investment?

You must be able to hurt your counterparty for realz. No matter what the docs say.

Or in the immortal words of Steve Zissou, “What about my dynamite?”

The Zeitgeist – 5.17.2019

By Ben Hunt | May 17, 2019 | 1 Comment

That’s a live shot of me today, reading an important and useful paper by a Fed economist. Seriously.

Also, a Mr. Wonderful bot, and Bill de Blasio winning those Midwestern hearts and minds one camo-wearing diner patron at a time.