All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory including our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. Plus, short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes.

The Lystrosaurus

By Rusty Guinn | June 17, 2020 | 12 Comments

There is practically no information in knowing that everybody is talking about something. There is some information in knowing that everybody is using the same language to talk about something.

But there is a lot of value in knowing that people and publications with no underlying connection are simultaneously inspired to use the same language to talk about different angles of the same issue.

Read more

The Portnoy Top

By Peter Cecchini | June 15, 2020 | 3 Comments

Written during last week’s sell-off, ET Contributor Peter Cecchini coins a phrase – The Portnoy Top.

What do you get when you combine Barstool Sports and Printer Goes Brrr?

Read more

No Country for Old Men

By Ben Hunt | June 12, 2020 | 12 Comments

We all know someone who is in urgent-but-not-emergency need of some medical procedure that can’t be scheduled while Covid-19 is storming the hospital ramparts.

I’m one of them.

Read more

Misfortune vs. Carelessness

By Ben Hunt | June 9, 2020 | 6 Comments

What’s happening with the Bureau of Labor Statistics with recent employment data reports is an intentional, political carelessness that supports status quo cartoons of control.

It’s not a Democrat thing and it’s not a Republican thing.

It’s a power thing.

Read more

Never Forget

By Ben Hunt | June 4, 2020 | 8 Comments

Since June 4th 1989, the Chinese government has tried to erase any record of the Tiananmen Square massacre from history.

Can a Tiananmen Square massacre happen in the United States? I doubt it.

Can a Tiananmen Square rewriting of history happen in the United States? Absolutely. It already is.

Read more

No Accident

By Rusty Guinn | June 3, 2020 | 20 Comments

Our bi-modal political environment doesn’t just impact our politics. It shapes our social and cultural narratives and channels our responses to every event.

Yet Americans are large. They contain multitudes. And they can reject the political archetypes into which narratives seek to channel them. If this is to be our finest hour, then they must.

Read more

ET Live! – 6.2.2020

By Rusty Guinn | June 2, 2020 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 6.2.2020

In this ET Live!, Ben and Rusty discuss all things pandemic recovery, markets and the narratives of protests surrounding the death of George Floyd.

Self Assured Destruction

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2020 | 31 Comments

Our leaders have botched the Covid-19 war, and we are defenseless against a now endemic disease.

15,000 to 20,000 Americans officially sick. 500 to 1,000 Americans officially dead.

Every day.

The free world does not easily survive a globally endemic Covid-19.

Read more

The Hertz Story Isn’t What You Think

By Ben Hunt | May 27, 2020 | 5 Comments

The Hertz bankruptcy is not a story of financialization by an entrenched, self-dealing management team.

It’s a story of financialization by an entrenched, self-dealing minority ownership.

Read more

A New Gilded Age

By Rusty Guinn | May 24, 2020 | 22 Comments

A Gilded Age isn’t an age of prosperity. It is an age of the narrative of prosperity, and narratives of prosperity are always top-down political narratives.

There is but one way to tear down top-down political narratives: action.

Read more

The End of the Beginning

By Demonetized | May 20, 2020 | 6 Comments

ET contributor Demonetized is back, grappling with some investment themes here at the end of the beginning.

The skinny: deep value is at best a tactical trade. At best.

Read more

No Free Lunches

By Peter Cecchini | May 19, 2020 | 4 Comments

ET Contributor Pete Cecchini looks at the monetary and fiscal policy stimulus coming out of Washington and sees a staggering price to pay in lost real growth and massive institutional corruption.

Read more

A Truth That’s Told With Bad Intent

By Ben Hunt | May 14, 2020 | 37 Comments

A truth that’s told with bad intent
Beats all the lies you can invent.
– William Blake

Our narratives of COVID-19 are all lies.

They are lies of a particular sort, political narratives that have a nugget of truth within them, but are told with bad intent. They are told this way because it works. Because the nugget of truth hides a deeper, unpleasant truth. And a Big Lie.

Read more

Hateful Memes and Election Season

By Rusty Guinn | May 13, 2020 | 1 Comment

There’s light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, and there’s light at the end of the pandemic narrative tunnel. No, on second thought I think that’s an oncoming train called “election season.”

Read more

American Idol

By Ben Hunt | May 6, 2020 | 9 Comments

Take away a great performer’s live audience, and you take away their source of narrative power.

That’s true for American Idol. That’s true for Warren Buffett.

It’s also true for Donald Trump.

Read more

Too Connected to Fail

By Rusty Guinn | May 4, 2020 | 11 Comments

We have written that one of the major social changes occurring at present is the transformation of capital markets into public utilities.

The COVID-19 pandemic and policy response have accelerated that transformation. It is now the water in which we swim.

Read more

ET Live! – 4.28.2020

By Rusty Guinn | April 28, 2020 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 4.28.2020

Join us this afternoon for the Pandemic Edition of Epsilon Theory Live! As usual, we start promptly, so if you don’t have video within a short period after 2PM ET, please refresh your browser. We recommend Chrome for the best experience.

That Old Canard

By Rusty Guinn | April 27, 2020 | 7 Comments

We are now in the Flooz.com phase of the “how is COVID-19 going to change the world forever” process. Be careful out there.

Read more

Bear Stearns and the Narratives of Systemic Risk

By Ben Hunt | April 23, 2020 | 15 Comments

The systemic risk question you need to ask yourself today is the same question you needed to ask in 2008.

What is the micro-level truth of the potential real-world shock, and does that micro-level truth threaten the common knowledge surrounding a levered business model and securitized asset class of enormous size?

Read more

Through No Fault of Their Own

By Ben Hunt | April 20, 2020 | 17 Comments

I, for one, am delighted to learn of the “Through No Fault of Their Own” exemption to stock market risk.

One day, and soon, there will be a reckoning. Time to choose a side.

Read more