All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory including our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. Plus, short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes.

The UNITED States of America

By Ben Hunt | September 19, 2020 | 7 Comments

My RBG story …

I thought she’d be all about women’s rights and legal theory this and legal theory that. I was SO wrong.

RBG’s death is an enormous loss for the UNITED States of America.

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Many People Say

By Ben Hunt | September 16, 2020 | 26 Comments

The go-to move by sophists like Vox and Trump is to claim that “many people” are asserting their made-up premise that justifies an otherwise ludicrous position.

Why do they do this? Because it works.

Why does it work? Because common knowledge game. Because of the power of the crowd watching the crowd.

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ET Live! – 9.15.2020

By Rusty Guinn | September 15, 2020 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 9.15.2020

In today’s episode, it’s all about BITFD and the almost hilarious extremes to which the Long Now has infected our financial world. Don’t forget to refresh your browser if your video doesn’t start promptly after 2:00 PM ET.

The Projection Racket, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | September 14, 2020 | 23 Comments

Some of us are uncomfortable with BITFD, and that’s OK. Small-c conservatives should be uncomfortable. Small-l liberals should be uncomfortable.

They should also get on board.

This is a series about why.

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Mailbag – Lucifer’s Hammer Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 11, 2020 | 8 Comments

It’s been a full year since I wrote my last Mailbag note, which is kinda pathetic.

Well, better late than never. Reader comments and emails following our publication of Lucifer’s Hammer have been amazing, and it would be a disservice to the Pack if I didn’t collect some of them here. Enjoy!

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Invisible Threads: Matrix Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 9, 2020 | 9 Comments

I’m not saying that we all have to become volatility traders to survive in the market jungle today, any more than we all have to become game theorists to avoid being the sucker at the Fed’s communication policy table.

But if you’re a traditional investor whose sandbox includes big markets like the S&P 500, then you’re only disadvantaging yourself by ignoring this stuff.

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A Society of Tinkerers

By Luis Perez-Breva | September 4, 2020 | 12 Comments

We don’t need more minimally viable products.

We need more maximally viable organizations attacking big problems with a tinkerer’s mindset and a capitalist’s goals.

Guest post by Luis Perez-Breva, faculty director at MIT Innovation Teams.

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The Game of Tesla

By Ben Hunt | September 3, 2020 | 4 Comments

Recent price action in Tesla is the Common Knowledge Game in action.

It is the power of the crowd watching the crowd. It is the power of – not what you think is true, and not what you think the crowd thinks is true – but of what the crowd thinks the crowd thinks is true.

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The Cartoon Put

By Rusty Guinn | September 1, 2020 | 13 Comments

Seeing cartoons made from data doesn’t give us license to ignore the underlying feature of the world being measured – it gives us a duty to cut through the abstractions obscuring that feature of the world.

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Lucifer’s Hammer

By Ben Hunt | August 31, 2020 | 40 Comments

There’s a comet speeding our way, a comet of endemic urban violence.

And for so many people – especially young men with the voice of Ego now shouting in their heads as the whispers are turned up to 11 by the amps of political party and social media – they think that post-apocalyptic world sounds just dandy.

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Cheesing

By Rusty Guinn | August 26, 2020 | 19 Comments

In a world awash with cheesing, being lawful good doesn’t mean being lawful stupid.

But for God’s sake, don’t lose your soul in the process.

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Sacrifice for Thee, Vast Wealth for Me

By Ben Hunt | August 25, 2020 | 11 Comments

Doug Parker, American Airlines CEO and Chairman of the Board, wrote a letter to his employees today that pretty much defines high-functioning sociopathy.

I’m going to reprint excerpts from that letter – which is couched in the saccharine vocabulary of modern team-speak, but is in truth a shakedown letter to employees and a ransom note to the US government – and then I’m going to tell you a few things about Doug.

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The Fujiwhara Effect

By Rusty Guinn | August 22, 2020 | 11 Comments

Citizens must be capable of holding multiple ideas in their heads at once.

We can believe that the aims and intents of political powers are not equal while also focusing explicitly on the misuse of the tools of narrative to manipulative the populace by BOTH.

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Facebook Delenda Est

By Ben Hunt | August 20, 2020 | 43 Comments

More than any other company, Facebook is undermining our democracy and our most integral political rights.

More than any other company, Facebook has bought and paid for political cover at the highest levels of American, Indian and European government, political cover that prevents any of the actions we might take as a society to rid ourselves of this cancer.

Facebook delenda est.

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Why Publish Academic Research?

By Ben Hunt & Rusty Guinn | August 17, 2020 | 3 Comments

There are many institutional gatekeepers. There are many powerful guilds and socially embedded practices that seek to limit our voices and ideas. Are academic journals the worst of these? Not by a long shot. But they ARE one of these.

This is how we change the world. This is how we unleash our voices and ideas. Not by attacking these institutional gatekeepers from the top-down with yet another institutional gatekeeper, but by making the institutional gatekeeper irrelevant through our bottom-up, decentralized actions.

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“Rebalance Timing Luck: The Dumb (Timing) Luck of Smart Beta” by Hoffstein, Faber and Braun

By Academic Research Author | August 17, 2020 | 0 Comments

Hoffstein, Faber and Braun construct long-only indices that provide exposures to popular U.S. equity factors (value, size, momentum, quality, and low volatility) and vary their rebalance schedules to isolate the effects of “rebalance timing luck.”

Their results suggest substantial problems for analyzing any investment when the strategy, its peer group, or its benchmark is susceptible to performance impacts driven by the choice of rebalance schedule.

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Carny Barkers

By Ben Hunt | August 13, 2020 | 16 Comments

In the age of capital markets as carny show, we are told by barkers like Cramer that this is what a smart investor or management team does … they should look to the grift du jour for their edge.

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Can’t Fight This Feeling

By Rusty Guinn | August 12, 2020 | 7 Comments

No, I don’t think there’s a bubble. No, I don’t think a crash is coming. But when Mark Cuban says this reminds him of 1999 and 2000, he’s right.

And the reason worries me more than either of those things.

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The Grifters, Chapter 2 – N95 Masks

By Ben Hunt | August 11, 2020 | 10 Comments

I don’t think I have the words to communicate just how screwed up our PPE distribution system is in this country, or what a profound betrayal it is for our government to support this perverse system of personal greed and corporate ambivalence in exchange for campaign soundbites and photo ops.

But I’m gonna try.

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ET Live! – 8.13.2020

By Rusty Guinn | August 11, 2020 | Comments Off on ET Live! – 8.13.2020

It’s the August 11th…I mean, August 13th edition of ET Live!, an interactive livestream in which Ben and Rusty discuss all things narrative in the world today.

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