COVID-19 has been one of the greatest tragedies in our lifetime. And we've been talking about it since before it became mainstream news. This is the collection of our extensive coverage and analysis of COVID-19.

All the Covid Content

Our Finest Hour

By Ben Hunt | April 2, 2020

There is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States. And I know you won’t believe me, but I tell you it is true:

This will be #OurFinestHour.

First the People

By Rusty Guinn | April 14, 2020

This is not a chronicle of errors and mistakes made during COVID-19.

This is the story about the inevitable, simultaneous failure of each of the institutions designed to operate in our interest.

It is the story of how we respond to fragility with resilience.

A Truth That’s Told With Bad Intent

By Ben Hunt | May 14, 2020

A truth that’s told with bad intent
Beats all the lies you can invent.
– William Blake

Our narratives of COVID-19 are all lies.

They are lies of a particular sort, political narratives that have a nugget of truth within them, but are told with bad intent. They are told this way because it works. Because the nugget of truth hides a deeper, unpleasant truth. And a Big Lie.

The Grifters, Chapter 2 – N95 Masks

By Ben Hunt | August 11, 2020

I don’t think I have the words to communicate just how screwed up our PPE distribution system is in this country, or what a profound betrayal it is for our government to support this perverse system of personal greed and corporate ambivalence in exchange for campaign soundbites and photo ops.

But I’m gonna try.

The Endemic Mindset

By Rusty Guinn | November 16, 2020

COVID-19 is endemic, and its mutations will likely be part of our lives going forward.

But there is another disease this virus has caused, and it is a disease of the mind. It is the endemic mindset. And we can eradicate it.


The Ireland Event

By Ben Hunt | January 12, 2021

I believe there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 30-45 days, where the Covid effective reproductive number (Re not R0) reaches a value between 2.4 and 3.0 in states and regions where a) the more infectious UK-variant (or similar) Covid strain has been introduced, and b) Covid fatigue has led to deterioration in social distancing behaviors.

ET Podcast #3 – The Ireland Event

By Ben Hunt | January 14, 2021

In episode #3 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Rusty and I discuss the spike in Covid cases in Ireland and the risk of seeing a similar “Ireland Event” here in the US.

The time to act is NOW, not with indiscriminate lockdowns, but with strong restrictions on international and domestic air travel to contain the UK-variant virus while we accelerate vaccine delivery.

UK-Variant SARS-CoV-2 Update

By Ben Hunt | January 20, 2021

The spread of B117 in a Covid-fatigued country like the US is a profoundly deflationary, risk-off, dollar higher, flight to safety event in real-world.

Does it matter to market-world?

The Zimbabwe Event

By Ben Hunt | January 27, 2021

The South African variant virus (501.V2) is not the immediate threat to the United States as the UK variant virus (B117). But 501.V2 has the potential to create a far more powerful Narrative – vaccine resistance – that can have a greater market impact than the more pressing issues of B117.

More and more, I think the variant viruses create a tradeable event for markets.

Danish Food-Safety Expertise for the Win

By Ben Hunt | February 10, 2021

WHO beclowns itself with its “fact-finding mission” to Wuhan.