Don’t Test, Don’t Tell (10 Days Later)

Last week, Claire Lehmann, the founder and editor in chief of Quillette, asked if I’d be interested in publishing a new version of Don’t Test, Don’t Tell on the Quillette platform. I’ve never published anywhere except the Epsilon Theory platform in the seven years I’ve been doing this, and to be honest I find many of the articles published on Quillette to be more than a little problematic.

I immediately agreed.

As Rusty described in his magisterial note, The Elton/Hootie Line, what we need so desperately here in The Long Now are, to use the ten-dollar phrase … epistemic communities … opt-in places of thought and speech for truth-seekers. Or, to use the ET lingo … packs.

Quillette is a pack. It’s not my pack, but so what? We truth-seekers gotta stick together.

So here’s the article I wrote for Quillette, reprinted below. You’ll notice a few differences in the text, as Claire’s editors toned things down in a few places!

Anyone who wants a test can get a test.

On Thursday, February 26th – just as President Donald Trump was finishing up his initial White House press conference on the coronavirus … the one where he appointed Vice President Mike Pence as coronavirus czar and talked about “the fifteen cases that could go to zero” – I received a Twitter DM from a physician that included screenshots of an email that had been sent to staff at the UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento, California earlier that afternoon. After checking for authenticity, I posted the screenshots in a tweet of my own.

And that’s when, as the kids would say, my Twitter feed blew up.

Since that night, the original email has been confirmed by UC Davis and reported on by multiple news organizations. Here’s a copy of the email as reported by NPR.

I want to highlight a couple of quotes from this email.

Since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered. UC Davis Health does not control the testing process.

The facts here are clear cut. A patient came in from another hospital on Wednesday, Feb. 19 – this is one week before the email – already intubated and on a ventilator, and the doctors at UC Davis – who have treated other coronavirus cases – immediately suspected a coronavirus infection.

But the US Center for Disease Control (CDC), the organization with the sole authority and ability to administer a coronavirus test, refused to test.

Why? Because this patient didn’t fit their “criteria” for testing. These criteria – what are known as Patient Under Investigation (PUI) guidelines – have been set in stone in the United States since coronavirus first burst onto the scene a few months back. Do we know for sure that the UC Davis patient was either a) in mainland China within the past 14 days, or b) in close contact with another confirmed case? No? Well then by definition this UC Davis patient could not possibly have a coronavirus infection. No test for you!

It’s not that testing was not available. It’s that testing was not ALLOWED.

This is “Don’t Test, Don’t Tell” and it is the single most incompetent, corrupt public health policy of my lifetime.

But wait, there’s more. It’s not only this patient who was directly harmed by Don’t Test, Don’t Tell.

When the patient arrived [Wednesday], the patient had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition. … On Sunday, the CDC ordered COVID-19 testing of the patient and the patient was put on airborne precautions and strict contact precautions.

Translation: for four days, every healthcare professional treating this patient at UC Davis was exposed to airborne transmission of coronavirus. And so was every healthcare professional at the hospital before UC Davis, particularly during the intubation process. Because the CDC refused to test this patient for coronavirus in a timely manner, all of the doctors and nurses and technicians caring for this patient were put at risk.

Sure enough, over the next few days about 124 UC Davis Medical Center staffers – including at least 36 nurses – were ordered into self-quarantine because of their exposure to this one patient. Worse, three staff members at Northbay VacaValley Hospital – the facility where this patient was treated before being transferred to UC Davis – have already tested positive for coronavirus infection, with an unknown number of additional healthcare professionals from that hospital now in self-quarantine. That’s all from one coronavirus infection.

Now imagine this same story repeated day after day across the United States for the past two months, where those infected with the virus fail to receive the care they need, spreading the disease not only to their community when their symptoms do not require hospitalization, but spreading the disease directly to emergency responders and healthcare professionals when their symptoms do. Even today, more than a week after the consequences of Don’t Test, Don’t Tell were revealed in that first case of community-spread coronavirus from Sacramento, the number of tests performed in the US is laughably low, particularly in states that were caught flat-footed when the CDC abdicated control over test production. Missouri, a state with a population of more than 6 million, has performed only 17 tests. Michigan, with a population of 10 million, has performed only a few dozen tests. Pennsylvania, with a population of almost 13 million, can perform all of 33 tests per day. Amazingly enough (sarc), these states do not have a confirmed case of coronavirus within their borders.

Now imagine this same story repeated day after day across the globe.

The statistical anomalies would be comic if they weren’t so tragic. As I write this essay on March 5th, there are more confirmed coronavirus infections in Harris County, Texas (five) acquired by Americans who traveled to Egypt than there are confirmed cases within the entire country of Egypt (three). Why? Because Egypt has only tested a few hundred people in this country of 100 million. There are more confirmed coronavirus infections in the city-state of Singapore (three) acquired from Singaporeans who traveledto Indonesia than there are confirmed cases in the entire country of Indonesia (two). Why? Because Indonesia has only tested a few hundred people in this country of 265 million. Can’t make it up.

With the exception of South Korea and Italy (and you can throw the UK in there, too, I suppose), pretty much every nation in the world has adopted some form of Don’t Test, Don’t Tell. The offenders include rich countries like the United States and Japan, vast countries like Indonesia and India, communist countries like China and Vietnam, theocracies like Iran and Saudi Arabia, oligarchies like Russia and Nigeria, social democracies like Germany and France … Don’t Test, Don’t Tell knows no geographic or ideological boundary.

And so you might ask: is this a difficult or expensive test to make? Is there some fundamental reason of technology or economics why a country might find itself forced to pursue a policy of Don’t Test, Don’t Tell?

Nope. It’s a relatively simple test to develop and administer in vast quantities. I figure there are half a dozen university and industry labs in Jakarta or Nairobi, much less Moscow or Chicago, that could crank out a few thousand test kits per week if they wanted to. Or rather, if they were allowed to.

Now that doesn’t mean that you can’t screw up the coronavirus test if you really set your mind to it. And in fact, that’s exactly what the CDC did in January, when they rejected the World Health Organization’s proposed test panel for SARS-CoV-2 (the official name for this particular novel coronavirus which causes the disease COVID-19) in favor of a gold-plated test panel of the CDC’s own design. After all, why just test for SARS-CoV-2 when you could also test for other SARS and MERS viruses? Unfortunately, with complexity came error, and these initial CDC triple-test kits had a flaw in one of the multiple tests, ruining the entire test. Now the CDC is producing a solo test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but this fiasco set us back weeks in test-kit supply.

So if it’s not a difficult or expensive test to make, why are so many countries pursuing a policy of Don’t Test, Don’t Tell?

The answer, of course: to maintain a political narrative of calm and competence.

It’s what the Best and the Brightest always do … they convince themselves that their citizens can’t handle the truth, particularly if the truth ain’t such good news. They convince themselves that they can buy themselves time to figure out a winning strategy against a disease like COVID-19 if they employ a constructed “communication strategy” like Don’t Test, Don’t Tell.

Until they run out of time.

Like they ran out of time in China. Like they ran out of time in Wuhan.

From The Fall of Wuhan:

A city falls when its healthcare system is overwhelmed. A city falls when its national government fails to prepare and support its doctors and nurses. A city falls when its government is more concerned with maintaining some bullshit narrative of “Yay, Calm and Competent Control!” than in doing what is politically embarrassing but socially necessary.

That’s EXACTLY what happened in Wuhan. More than 30% of doctors and nurses in Wuhan themselves fell victim to COVID-19, so that the healthcare system stopped being a source of healing, but became a source of infection. At which point the Chinese government effectively abandoned the city, shut it off from the rest of the country, placed more than 9 million people under house arrest, and allowed the disease to burn itself out.

And so Wuhan fell.

The disaster that befell the citizens of Wuhan and so many other cities throughout China is not primarily a virus. The disaster is having a political regime that cares more about maintaining a self-serving narrative of control than it cares about saving the lives of its citizens.

We must prevent that from happening here. From happening anywhere. Yes, containment has failed. But that does NOT mean the war is lost. We can absolutely do better – SO MUCH BETTER – for our citizens than China did for theirs.

China’s brutal handling of the coronavirus in Hubei province, from its muzzling of doctors like Li Wenliang for “rumor-mongering” to its forced quarantines of tens of millions to its carefully falsified “data” regarding the spread of the disease to its influence over World Health Organization recommendations … it was all guided by Don’t Test, Don’t Tell (with Chinese characteristics).

The Chinese experience with coronavirus is not a “lesson” for the West. It is a cautionary tale!

How do we do better by our citizens than China did by theirs?

By prioritizing the protection of our emergency responders and our healthcare professionals, through better equipment and facilities, yes, but most of all through better policy and organization, starting with the abandonment of Don’t Test, Don’t Tell.

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  1. “The answer, of course: to maintain a political narrative of calm and competence.”
    Another answer is to make it look like the pandemic started someplace else. Now there are apparently several studies which purport to show that there are more variants in the USA than China or Iran, a fact, if true, that would suggest an origin here. Alt-news is already honing in on the temporary closure of Fort Detrik in the fall and wondering if covid19 has been circulating in our influenza numbers since then. Recently, my own son had ophthalmic sequelae of the ‘flu’ I haven’t seen in 40 years of practice.
    Hopefully, the second paragraph above is rubbish, and the first is correct.
    Most likely, we will never know.

  2. please provide links to said studies. thank you

  3. Virtually impossible for a doctor in the ED to get approval to test a patient, especially if they were to be admitted. Almost like they are trying to make this as widespread and deadly as possible. The bureaucracy at its finest (private hospital desk jockeys in lock step with the government pin heads. They are still creating flow charts to explain why we cannot test. We cannot known the morbidity and mortality and the rate of spread. Probably due to the fact that since WWII health care is now more like the government than the free market. Since am near certain to get this infection due to policy and profession, I have as much at stake as anyone. All very disappointing.

  4. @Ben

    “ This is “Don’t Test, Don’t Tell” and it is the single most incompetent, corrupt public health policy of my lifetime.”

    Then you were born after HIV/AIDS.
    And Chernobyl. What happened in Africa with malaria after DDT was stopped at the behest of White Liberals in the USA and Europe (2 million dead of Malaria, a controllable problem). For that matter Americas Opioid crisis.

    You “reckon” labs can mass produce it? You reckon?

    You are also Sir conflating many nations into one, and inability to reckon (lets be honest) Billions of test kits into existence as fast as FEAR demands.

    You also may think it the duty of Public Officials to spread panic and hysteria, but they do not. Ever.
    That’s not corruption. It’s being responsible. Cuomo concluded his presser yesterday saying panic was as bad as this disease, in an oblique rebuke of the Press.

    Since there was and is indeed a shortage of test kits then the CDC then has to prioritize who gets tested.
    Apparently it is your reckoning that everyone get tested at the drop of a hat for something not yet known for 90 days. Well if there aren’t enough test kits then that’s not possible.

    All that happened was a form of Triage, which often has to be applied when medical resources are overwhelmed - any overstraining, not just war.

    Good grief ERs have to do this routinely.

    Man will never catch up to Mother Nature, or be able to conjure enough doctors and nurses to meet every contingency.

    Finally corruption means something, confusion, bad information, mistakes, or yes even reassurances from leaders that don’t reassure are not corruption.

    Whatever twitter or UC Davis says.

    Listen Sir with deep regards this sort of thing will increase short term traffic at the expense of long term.
    Borrowing long to gain short.

    Mother Nature will have her way.
    She may for a time seem to be banished but she always returns.

  5. Gentlemen in service to the pack; if you’re worried but feel powerless- do something. Here is a link to the American Civil Defense association, the geezers are still at it - and decades of experience counts.

    They can probably put you in touch with local groups, as well as have a large free library for education.

  6. Avatar for TyB TyB says:


  7. Bosses should be ORDERING their staff to work at home, and requiring approval for exceptions to work in the office. This is needed to break through people’s fears that if they are not in the office they will be penalized. Social distancing now will save lives.

    This article is very good:

    Note especially:

    (1): Chart 7 which shows the two exponential growth curves. The orange bars show what the medical authorities could see. The much larger earlier grey bars show the true rate of infection that can’t be seen by anyone, because people have no symptoms yet or have mild symptoms and don’t report or are not tested.

    The implication is that when you have a small number of detected cases, there are in reality a large number of undetected cases, and they are spreading exponentially.

    (2) The conclusion that the death rate where ICU (intensive care unit) is overwhelmed is 10 times greater than the death rate where ICU is not overwhelmed.

    (3) The animated diagram in section 3 “What Should You Do” which shows the effect of slowing down the spread of the virus so that the medical system is not overwhelmed, and everyone who needs treatment can receive treatment. In that diagram note the dip in the treatment capacity as the medical staff all get sick. Most of them will recover and develop immunity and return to work, but there is a dip in treatment capacity for a few weeks. The capacity also improves due to improved drug regimens, investment in extra capacity in the hospitals etc. The result is that even if everyone eventually gets the virus, spreading that out over many months will massively reduce the number of deaths.

    Also two interesting comments on Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm
    Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology.
    He literally wrote the book. See

    First in response to the question essentially “How long will this go on” he said:

    “I worry, I keep telling people we’re handling this like it’s a corona
    blizzard you know two or three days and we’re back to normal. This is a
    corona virus winter and we’re gonna have the next three months or more
    six months or more that are going to be like this”

    Second, in response to the idea that it will all go away when the summer season comes, he said:

    “MERS which is another corona virus that’s in the Middle East it’s in
    the Arabian Peninsula. The natural reservoir for that is camels

    In the Arabian Peninsula we’re not going to euthanize a 1.7 camels you
    know to try to get rid of MERS. And there it’s a hundred and ten
    degrees out and this virus is transmits fine thank you. I mean it
    goes from animals to people, it goes in the hospitals there’s no
    evidence that seasonal there”.

  8. Provocative indeed. Chinese researchers proclaiming that the virus originated outside of China. Shocker. Hopefully we will ultimately know the truth of its origins.

    Seems very difficult to imagine that in a densely populated country with many smokers and generations living together in close quarters, that the Chinese official tally of cases is only about 80,000. I’d guess we have at least that many in the US now (March 13) and a population which is a fraction of their size.

  9. Without judgement, here is a recent summary with references and links, as well as some comments. I personally think the vaping cases are something different. Judging from past epidemics, the virologists will eventually pinpoint a likely source location, usually different from the original narrative. That’s why Fauci saying the source was ‘no doubt’ Wuhan, China bothers me a lot!

    Finally, Peggy Noonan and Heather MacDonald took opposite points of view on ‘what to do’ with Noonan taking Dr. Ben’s more aggressive approach and MacDonald more don’t panic. If CV-19 has been endemic here since late last year, then we might be somewhat reassured.

    One last thing, when someone touches their head, call them out!! Just watch our team leaders fail at this every single time! It takes practice and coaching.

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