The Python and the Pig

23+

To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You’ll get two or three of these emails every week, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever.


Seattle-area emergency room

NYC declares state of emergency, de Blasio says coronavirus ‘could easily be a 6-month crisis’ (CNBC)

The city now has 95 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with 42 of them reported in the last 24 hours, he said. More than 1,780 people are under voluntary quarantine in the city, with an additional 29 people under mandatory quarantine, he said. By next week, the number of cases in the city is projected to rise to 1,000, he said. 


Here’s what I think de Blasio (and every mayor of every big city in the United States) is looking at. This is data publicly available from NYC Health.

The graph below is a count of the number of NYC emergency room visits PER DAY over the past twelve months where the chief complaint was an influenza-like illness. You see a big spike from November through January. That is seasonal flu. But you also see a new spike over the past two weeks. This is coronavirus.

I really don’t think this is some resurgence of seasonal flu for two reasons. First, for the entire online NYC Health dataset (goes back to 2016), there is no second spike in any year. Second, look at the demographics for ER-reported influenza-like illnesses broken down by pre-Feb and post-Feb. During the seasonal flu spike, the most impacted age group was children age 0-4 years. During this more recent spike, the most impacted age group (by far) was adults age 18-64. This is not the seasonal flu.

CV-19 is not coming to New York City. CV-19 is here. It’s been here for a while. It’s going to get much worse before it gets any better.

By much worse I mean that the NYC healthcare system – one of the finest in the world – is about to be slammed beyond anything they have ever seen. ER visits and patient testing is where it begins. It moves from there through the system, ending in ICU wards. The process is like a python swallowing a pig, except this isn’t a pig. It’s a whale.

From what I read and hear, I think that de Blasio and Cuomo are fully aware of the situation and taking every possible step to prepare the healthcare system for the deluge. It would be nice if we had this sort of leadership on a national scale, but I’m not holding my breath. Frankly, I’ll be thrilled if the White House is just not actively hampering the efforts that need to be made here.

Every local and state leader needs to look at what’s happening in New York and understand that this is your crystal ball. This is your future. You can ignore it or you can prepare. It’s truly your choice.

Every citizen needs to understand that your local and state leaders have the ability to make that choice. They will listen to YOU. So make your voice heard.


23+

To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You'll get two or three of these emails every week, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever. It's our effort to spread the word about what we're doing, and allow you to read more Epsilon Theory!

2
Leave a Reply

Please Login as a Paid Member as a Paid Member to comment
  Subscribe  
newest oldest
Notify of
Rafa Mayer
Member
Rafa Mayer

As of 3:40 PM today…city is up to 154…and so it begins.

UPDATE: NYS has 96 confirmed new cases of novel coronavirus, bringing the statewide total to 421.

Westchester: 158
NYC: 154
Nassau: 51
Suffolk: 28
Rockland: 9
Ulster: 5
Dutchess: 3
Orange: 3
Saratoga: 3
Albany: 2
Broome: 1
Delaware: 1
Herkimer: 1
Monroe: 1
Schenectady: 1

1+
Chris McNew
Member
Chris McNew

Blanketing the country with testing sounds awesome but the speed with which the test results come back could be the next crisis IMO, and it’s easy to see through the narrative side of slow walking the results…I’m aware of a test sent off on 3/6 still awaiting results.

0

The Daily Zeitgeist

The Miracle Max of MBS

By Rusty Guinn | March 30, 2020 | 2 Comments

Sometimes investors and corporate executives will beg for a miracle to bring mostly dead assets back to life. That’s OK. But we don’t have to give it to them. And we don’t have to treat their requests as news in themselves.

Read more

Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | March 12, 2020 | 15 Comments

For the first time our federal government is treating the fight against this virus like the war that it is.

Is it pathetic and sad and a corrupt betrayal of the public trust that it took this long? Absolutely.

But now here we go. And there is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States.

Read more

The Mozilo Market

By Ben Hunt | February 28, 2020 | 12 Comments

After a Countrywide earnings call in 2008, I trusted NO ONE in government or Wall Street to tell the truth about the mortgage crisis.

And that’s the way I feel about COVID-19 today.

Read more

Kitchen Sink It

By Rusty Guinn | February 20, 2020 | 9 Comments

13+ To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You’ll get two or three of these emails every week, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever. I have been under withering (if modestly deserved) friendly fire recently for posing a riddle and sitting on …

Read moreKitchen Sink It

Love in the Time of COVID-19

By Ben Hunt | February 17, 2020 | 7 Comments

Within a few months, the reality of COVID-19 will overtake the propaganda of the CCP and their toadies at the World Health Organization, as real-world companies begin making real-world economic decisions to maintain their enterprises in the face of a real-world threat.

Those decisions will be led by sports franchises.

Read more

Options

By Rusty Guinn | February 12, 2020 | 20 Comments

Our social institutions require of us many songs. One of those songs is about the roots of poverty in immorality. If we’re going to stop singing their songs, this may be a good place to start.

Read more

DISCLOSURES

This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.