Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting … often far from it.
But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world.
“We had a massive diversification strategy [previously], but the new management team, under George Sherman, our new CEO, is myopically and maniacally focused on gaming,” he says. “We need to…focus on becoming a cultural center for gaming….If [E3] is the Vatican [of gaming], why aren’t we the local church?”
“Something Wall Street doesn’t understand is lower income gamers are a massive, massive audience and GameStop does a yeoman’s service in serving that customer,” he says. “That customer typically pays in cash. That customer doesn’t have massive bandwidth in their home. That customer is a value shopper.”– Frank Hamlin, Gamestop EVP
That customer also plays Fortnite for free.
The worst investment I ever made in my hedge fund – and by worst investment I mean by an order of magnitude – was buying Blockbuster junior debt. Sure, we bought it at a really steep discount, so that it was yielding something like 25%. Sure, we “did our homework”, as our analysts constructed beautifully detailed cashflow models and projections. Sure, I talked myself into believing that Blockbuster could construct a new narrative about its future, as I “sat down with management” for the umpteenth time and they demonstrated their Netflix-beating streaming app.
I think they made three quarterly payments on the debt before it all came unglued and Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy. Carl Icahn, who owned a lot of equity and was a big reason why we thought this could work, ended up controlling the senior debt, too, and pushed his liquidation plan through. The junior debt was totally wiped out.
What’s the biggest lesson I learned, other than it’s not enough to be in the same general vicinity as Carl Icahn, but that you better be in exactly the same security with exactly the same seniority or you will get fucked?
Secularly declining companies ALWAYS run out of time.
Management is not lying to you. It’s probably a really good plan. It could probably work out fine … IF they are given enough time. But they won’t be. Particularly when it’s the second turn-around plan.
There are just too many Carl Icahns out there.
See, Carl Icahn doesn’t care about The Company. He doesn’t care about The Plan. He cares about His Money, and he knows that it’s a Big World with lots of opportunities for His Money. So what is Carl Icahn’s attitude and message to every management team he’s ever been involved with?
I say this with admiration, not as a slight, as there are so many valuable permutations to both understanding this investment perspective in others (play the player, not the cards!) and adopting this investment perspective in myself (opportunity cost is everything!).
It was one of the most expensive lessons of my investing career. And worth every penny.