ET Intro

ET Intro

Of all the notes we've written, these are some of our favorites. These are the notes that we (and our readers) keep coming back to and have created the foundation of Epsilon Theory.

Epsilon Theory Manifesto

By Ben Hunt | June 1, 2013 | 4 Comments

Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective.

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Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2013 | 1 Comment

The first ET note focused on Information Theory.

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It Was Barzini All Along

By Ben Hunt | September 8, 2013 | 0 Comments

“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” – Don Vito Corleone

Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.

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When the Story Breaks

By Ben Hunt | August 25, 2015 | 0 Comments

The Three Types of Fear: The Gross-out: the sight of a severed head tumbling down a flight of stairs. It’s when the lights go out…

The Narrative Machine

By Ben Hunt | August 17, 2016 | 0 Comments

“So, in the interests of survival, they trained themselves to be agreeing machines instead of thinking machines. All their minds had to do was to discover what other people were thinking, and then they thought that, too.” – Kurt Vonnegut

If there’s a better description of modern markets, I have yet to find it. We have become agreeing machines.

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Magical Thinking

By Ben Hunt | September 1, 2016 | 3 Comments

The problem with magical thinking run amok and its perpetuation of a fantasy world is that sooner or later the dream of the delusional king becomes a real world nightmare for real world people. It’s time to wake up.

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Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble

By Ben Hunt | September 29, 2016 | 1 Comment

Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.

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Things Fall Apart (Part 1)

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2018 | 10 Comments

Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today’s note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

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The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | July 31, 2019 | 10 Comments

The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.

We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.

Tick-tock.

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First the People

By Rusty Guinn | April 14, 2020 | 50 Comments

This is not a chronicle of errors and mistakes made during COVID-19.

This is the story about the inevitable, simultaneous failure of each of the institutions designed to operate in our interest.

It is the story of how we respond to fragility with resilience.

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AMA? BITFD!

By Ben Hunt | November 24, 2020 | 23 Comments

The American Medical Association is not a charitable organization.

The American Medical Association is not an educational organization.

The American Medical Association is a tax-exempt hedge fund and licensing corporation, designed from the ground up to enrich its executives and serve its own bureaucratic interests.

Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.

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Hunger Games

By Ben Hunt | February 4, 2021 | 31 Comments

You have been told that the odds are ever in your favor. You have been told this for your entire life.

More and more, you suspect this is a lie.

Over the past few weeks you have been told a new story. A brave story. You have been told that by banding together and acting as one, you can “democratize” the stock market.

Today, as you see the collapsing stock prices of the companies you supported, you suspect that this was a lie, as well.

What now?

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Proof of Plant: A New Vision for Crypto, Pt 1

By Ben Hunt | June 23, 2021 | 39 Comments

I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing. I do not mean this in a metaphorical sense. I mean a proof-of-plant method for literally growing cryptocurrency tokens as a representation of the value stored in the human cultivation of plants.

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