The Zeitgeist – 3.20.2019

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Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting … often far from it.

But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world.


As Fed Meeting Starts, Investors Appear Confident That Dovishness Will Continue [Forbes]

Jay Powell is our generation’s Arthur Burns.

The only difference is that Nixon did all of his bullying in private, and Burns wouldn’t dream of saying out loud what Powell shouts at every press conference.

They’re not even pretending anymore.


Fight chaos with constrained discretion [Salon]

If only we could make Congress more like the Fed, with a professional mandarin class exercising “constrained discretion”, whatever the hell that means.

Originally posted at the Niskanen Center, which is … disappointing. Classic example of admiring the problem, which is what institutionalized libertarianism has been institutionalized around (and is why I have zero interest in associating with institutionalized libertarianism).


I’m Not Letting Fear Affect My Outlook On Boeing [Seeking Alpha]

So I’m not going to rip this Seeking Alpha guy like I would noted raccoon and Boeing fanboy Kevin O’Leary, who just epitomizes everything that is laughable about financial media today. But I will say this, and hopefully these words wind their way to this guy’s “Dividend Growth Club”:

The absence of short interest in a name you like is NOT a good sign. On the contrary, it is a giant red flag that you have bought into a constructed and highly managed Narrative.


Lyft IPO Oversubscribed Ahead of Listing Next Week [Bloomberg]

Dah-dah-dah-dah-dah-dah-dah-dah-dum … or however you’re supposed to represent the Deliverance dueling banjos in Act I. Squealing like a pig comes in Act II.


TD Ameritrade Increases Commitment and Grows Capabilities for Stock Plan Services Through Its New Relationship with Certent [Press Release]

I’m seeing more and more of these partner relationship stories with back-office service providers like Certent and Carta and the like. Client acquisition costs … the struggle is real.


The Art of the Buzzer Beater: Why March Madness Magic Takes More Than One Shining Moment [SI]

Nah.

The post-hoc rationalization of lottery winners is a staple of sports writing, of course, and SI and ESPN are good places to practice your critical reading skills. And practice you should. Because this sort of inanity is even more prevalent in market writing.


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Rusty Guinn
Admin

It is very clearly nuh-nuh-neer-neer-neer-neer-neer-neer-neeeeeer.

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Victor K
Member
Victor K

ti.do.re–ti–do–la–ti–so–laaa

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Rusty Guinn
Admin

Wait, is that some harmony, or a different part? I’m humming it and lost you. Isn’t the melody mi-fa-sol-mi-fa-re-mi-do-reeee?

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Victor K
Member
Victor K

Not harmony – Transposed a fifth

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The Daily Zeitgeist

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It makes it easier for them to hide.

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By Ben Hunt | August 15, 2019 | 4 Comments

On Tuesday, the Macy’s narrative was “I think they can make their comps.”

On Wednesday, the Macy’s narrative was “I think they can cover their dividend.”

This is what it means for a narrative to go bad. This is what it means for a story to break.

And when a story breaks, so does the stock. Not just for a little while, but for a loooong time.

Just ask GE.

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By Rusty Guinn | July 29, 2019 | 3 Comments

Perhaps there is an emerging and cohesive narrative around the zombiefication effects of structurally low interest rates. As much as we’d like this to be the case, we think it has yet to really register.

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We’re All MMT’ers Now

By Ben Hunt | July 25, 2019 | 10 Comments

If Trump is reelected in 2020, I think he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Infrastructure Bonds.

If a Democrat is elected in 2020, I think she or he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. They’ll be called Green Bonds.

We’re all MMT’ers now.

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I’m Not a Raccoon! I’m the Lone Ranger!

By Ben Hunt | July 22, 2019 | 11 Comments

Price drives the transaction volumes of non-cash-flowing, non-productive things. Not the other way around.

There are prominent people at the intersection of Wall Street and crypto who know this to be true – who know that the “Yay, network effects!” narrative is BS when it comes to Bitcoin – but who promote the narrative anyway.

Why? Because they know that it’s narrative – even false narrative – that DOES drive the price.

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