In the Trenches: Cake

6+ PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required):  Cake What’s next for U.S.
You have reached the maximum number of free, long-form articles for the month.

Please join here to read the rest of this content.

Paid Members can log in here.

Leave a Reply

Please Login as a Paid Member as a Paid Member to comment
newest oldest
Notify of

An excellent article from Mr. Cecchini. A lot of his conclusions and beliefs are ‘domestic cozy’ to me (to steal a term from Ribbonfarm. I just have a hard time with one thing: “I also do not believe that the current situation is analogous to the early 1970s when President Nixon appointed Arthur Burns as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. While we will leave the reader to his or her own conclusions about the similarities between Donald Trump and Richard Nixon, it would appear that Chairman Powell is far less naïve than the academic, Burns. ” Hmmm…well your point is well taken. However, Powell may not be as ‘academic’ as Burns, but on the other hand he spent a lot of time at Carlyle Group, and has interests residing in making sure that PE and leveraged loans work and all his buddies and former colleagues are happy. Secondly, there are just so many signs that the ‘philosophical change’ that Mr. Cecchini cites as a precursor to a near term dovish set of expressions is underway and has been underway for some time. The Powell pivot, the new language surrounding ‘effective lower bound’, the reports about WH lawyers trying to figure out how to remove Powell under various circumstances. This all falls into Ben’s great advice “Ask why am I reading this now.” Peter was bang on regarding no June cut, that made sense to me, but Fed Fund Futures also had that as a consensus bet. The Fed has… Read more »

The Latest From Epsilon Theory


This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.