ET Pro China Monitor

The Pension Cartoon

By Ben Hunt | August 24, 2018 | 0 Comments

Nowhere is the cartoonification of politics and investing more prominent than in PensionWorld, where the need to appear to do something is often more powerful than our ability to do so.

Hari

Second Foundation

By Ben Hunt | August 23, 2018 | 0 Comments

Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy isn’t just science fiction. It’s a blueprint. It’s a blueprint for how civilization falls, or a culture fails, and what it takes to rebuild it as quickly as possible.

Nerves

The Next Slide

By Ben Hunt | August 23, 2018 | 0 Comments

The true face of Futurism is one part technological dependence, and two parts obsession with the technologies we create, instead of the people they were designed to help.

Death in the Afternoon

By Ben Hunt | August 22, 2018 | 0 Comments

In which Ben discovers that losing a hive of bees, like losing sociopathic sheep, industrially inefficient chickens, or really any farm animal, teaches its own lessons.

Mailbag: One Ring to Rule Them All

By Ben Hunt | August 22, 2018 | Comments Off on Mailbag: One Ring to Rule Them All

In which readers ask how to apportion the market effects of Fed jawboning and Fed asset purchases and sales (to the extent that the latter is not just part of the former’s cartoon).

Michael Cohen’s Flip Is a Big Narrative Deal

By Ben Hunt | August 21, 2018 | Comments Off on Michael Cohen’s Flip Is a Big Narrative Deal

In tangible terms, I’m not sure that Michael Cohen’s flip on DJT has done much to change anything, as much as the left would like it do. From a Narrative perspective, however, it is a big deal.

Mailbag: Rural vs. Urban Divide

By Ben Hunt | August 20, 2018 | Comments Off on Mailbag: Rural vs. Urban Divide

In which we reference an interesting article from Colin Woodward arguing against Common Knowledge of the rural/urban divide in the United States.

Tesla Rekt

By Ben Hunt | August 20, 2018 | Comments Off on Tesla Rekt

We write about the Common Knowledge Game a lot in Epsilon Theory, because it’s the central game of crowds and narratives.

Common knowledge is something that we all believe everyone else believes. 

Notes from the Road: Bayes and the Boreen

By Rusty Guinn | August 20, 2018 | 0 Comments

In Part 1 of his Notes from the Road series, Rusty takes us to Ireland. There he begins an exploration of path-dependence and priors in our thinking as investors and citizens.

Grant Williams “In Conversation” with Ben Hunt

By Ben Hunt | August 17, 2018 | Comments Off on Grant Williams “In Conversation” with Ben Hunt

Well, you know you’ve really made it in this business when Grant Williams shows up on your doorstep with his crew. What an honor to…