All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content


Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets

By Ben Hunt | April 20, 2014 | 0 Comments

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…

Beta Earthquake

By Ben Hunt | April 13, 2014 | 0 Comments

One of the things I like to keep my eye on when I’m puzzling out what’s going on in the market are the specific company…

The King is Dead. Long Live the King.

By Ben Hunt | April 7, 2014 | 0 Comments

Le roi est mort, vive le roi! – French proclamation as coffin of old king is placed into burial vault of Saint Denis Basilica. The…

Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

By Ben Hunt | March 30, 2014 | 0 Comments

Apocalypse Now (1979), based on “Heart of Darkness” by Joseph Conrad Kurtz:  Did they say why, Willard, why they want to terminate my command? Willard:…

Two Shifting Narratives

By Ben Hunt | March 24, 2014 | 0 Comments

Two brief observations on incipient shifts in powerful Narratives … First, China. The pleasant charade that recent currency intervention was nothing more than an effort…

Surely You Can’t Be Serious

By Ben Hunt | March 20, 2014 | 0 Comments

The Secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that you’ve got it made. These are my principles, and if you…


By Ben Hunt | March 16, 2014 | 0 Comments

The Panopticon: a new mode of obtaining power of mind over mind, in a quantity hitherto without example. – Jeremy Bentham

But the guilty person is only one of the targets of punishment. For punishment is directed above all at others, at all the potentially guilty. – Michel Foucault


By Ben Hunt | March 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

Question: Mr. President, a clarification if I may. The people who were blocking the Ukrainian Army units in Crimea were wearing uniforms that strongly resembled…

Two Quick Points

By Ben Hunt | March 6, 2014 | 0 Comments

Two quick Epsilon Theory points before the jobs report tomorrow. First, remember the Goldilocks Narrative of the post-Great Recession Era…slow growth keeps the Fed in play, so…

The Power of Why, Exhibit 4,512 in a Continuing Series

By Ben Hunt | February 28, 2014 | 0 Comments

No man is an Iland, intire of it selfe; Every man is a peece of the Continent, a part of the maine; If a Clod…

Don’t Fear the Reaper

By Ben Hunt | February 23, 2014 | 0 Comments

Buck Finemann, seventy two years old. Cantankerous old geezer. No-one liked him much, but they allowed him to play poker with them once a week…

Goldilocks and the Dog That Didn’t Bark

By Ben Hunt | February 13, 2014 | 0 Comments

Det. Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in…

Oh Stewardess, I Speak Jive

By Ben Hunt | February 6, 2014 | 0 Comments

Instead of a long-form note this Sunday, I thought I’d write a briefer note in advance of this Friday’s jobs report. I’ll be back next…

Yen Strengthens Below 102

By Ben Hunt | February 3, 2014 | 0 Comments

There was a clear short-term Narrative developed in the financial media last week creating a focal point at 102 in the Yen/USD exchange rate. The…

The Play’s the Thing

By Ben Hunt | February 2, 2014 | 0 Comments

There has to be a middle ground between being a Cynic and a Fool, some way of playing the game without losing one’s soul. Recognizing that all of us human animals, including me and including you, are playing multiple multi-level games … well, that seems like a good start to me.


By Ben Hunt | January 28, 2014 | 0 Comments

To lose one parent, Mr. Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.  – Oscar Wilde, “The Importance of Being…

American Bandstand

By Ben Hunt | January 19, 2014 | 0 Comments

Well, Dick, it’s got a good beat and you can dance to it.  – standard response to Dick Clark’s “how do you rate this song”…

Parasite Rex

By Ben Hunt | January 12, 2014 | 0 Comments

The most effective alpha-generating strategies are, technically speaking, parasites. I say this with love and admiration.

Adaptive Investing: What’s Your Market DNA?

By Ben Hunt | January 5, 2014 | 3 Comments

In 1837 on page 36 of his so-called “B” notebook, Charles Darwin wrote the words “I think” followed by the first depiction of an evolutionary tree.

The rest, as they say, is history,

The Construction of Robert Capa

By Ben Hunt | December 22, 2013 | 0 Comments

I went to the Democratic Convention as a journalist, and returned as a cold-blooded revolutionary. – Hunter S. Thompson Some people will say that words…